China is keeping a tight rein on its debts.

China is keeping a tight rein on its debts because its credit impulse is below its past decade.  This means China can ramp up its quantitative easing when necessary.

China has reduced US treasuries to $900B!

China is still selling its US treasuries.  Things will be bad for the US if China reduces its US treasuries below the UK.

Baltic dry index - 1560

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 776

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

China Sunsine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/25/22	UOB Kay Hian	China Sunsine	0.49	0.695	Buy	PER6.4x FY22
02/25/22	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.49	0.78	Add
05/19/22	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.44	0.67	Add
08/16/22	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.47	0.7	Add	PB0.9x FY23
11/29/22	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.41	0.6	Add	PB0.7x FY23
12/08/22	UOB Kay Hian	China Sunsine	0.395	0.453	Buy	PER4.9x F23

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/22	Lim & Tan	China Everbright	0.33	0.4	Accumulate
06/28/22	Lim & Tan	China Everbright	0.295	0.39	Buy

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/03/22	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.935	1.09	Buy
02/28/22	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.94	1.2	Buy
03/03/22	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.91	0.85	Hold	PER11x FY22
03/03/22	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.91	1	Neutral
04/01/22	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.915	1	Neutral	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 16 December 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/16/22	Lim & Tan	City Developments	8.26	9.62	Accumulate on weakness
12/16/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	30.87	34.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.26x FY23

Singapore Nodx declined again in November 2022.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/singapores-november-nodx-sinks-below-expectations-146-y-o-y-decline

Year-on-year changes:

November 2022: -14.6%

October 2022: -5.6%

September 2022: 3.1%

August 2022: 11.4%

July 2022: 7%

June 2022: 9%

May 2022: 12.4%

April 2022: 6.4%

March 2022: 7.7%

February 2022: 9.5%

January 2022: 17.6%

December 2021: 18.4%

November 2021: 24.2%

October 2021: 17.9%

September 2021: 12.3%

August 2021: 2.7%

July 2021: 12.7%

June 2021: 15.9%

May 2021: 8.8%

April 2021: 6%

March 2021: 12.1%

February 2021: 4.2%

January 2021: 12.8%

December 2020: 6.8%

November 2020: -4.9%

October 2020: -3.1%

September 2020: 5.9%

August 2020: 7.7%

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%

May 2017: -1.2%

Apr 2017: -0.7%

Mar 2017: 16.5%

Feb 2017: 21.1%

What will the US FED do for this December meeting? - Part 2

Just as everybody had expected, the US FED hiked its rate by 50bp in December 2022.

Let's take a look at the latest Fed dot plot.

The chart is showing that the US will end with 5.1% interest rate in 2023 which is higher than its previous projection.  Why is the Fed keeping to its rate hike path when the US CPI is dwindling?

Well, the US CPI is declining because of the higher base effects from the previous year.  However, if we look at the sticky CPI, we will see a completely different picture.  The sticky factors include wages and rentals which are unlikely to decline after price spikes and these sticky factors will continue to maintain the sky-high inflation.

From the sticky CPI chart, we can see that the sticky CPI is still rising despite the headline inflation declining for the past few months.

The core sticky CPI is also showing an upward trend too.

Thus, the US Fed will continue on its rate hiking path because of the rising sticky CPI.

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/09/22	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.335	0.38	Buy
03/10/22	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.415	0.45	Buy	PER8.4x FY22 & PB0.6x FY22
03/30/22	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.36	0.42	Buy	DCF
05/23/22	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.355	0.43	Buy	PER6.2x FY22
06/07/22	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.37	0.43	Buy	DCF
07/26/22	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.36	0.43	Buy	DCF
08/16/22	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.38	0.51	Buy	PER7.5x FY22
08/17/22	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.375	0.45	Buy	PER5.9x
09/19/22	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.4	0.45	Buy