Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/07/24	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	1.94	2.81	Buy	Sum of parts
07/02/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	1.74	2.7	Buy
07/11/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	1.84	2.7	Buy
08/05/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	1.78	2.3	Buy	PER15.9x
08/05/24	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	1.78	2.57	Buy
08/13/24	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	1.86	2.61	Buy	Sum of parts
09/24/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	1.86	2.3	Buy	PER15.9x
09/25/24	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.03	2.57	Buy
09/27/24	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	1.99	2.61	Buy	Sum of parts
09/30/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.18	3	Buy
10/17/24	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.18	2.57	Buy
11/01/24	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.38	2.57	Buy	PER16.7x
11/15/24	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.38	3	Buy
01/08/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.33	3	Buy
01/16/25	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	2.23	2.7	Buy	Sum of parts
03/12/25	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.1	2.8	Buy	PER16.3x
03/12/25	CIMB	Dairy Farm	2.1	2.71	Add
03/14/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.25	3	Buy
03/14/25	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	2.25	2.79	Buy	Sum of parts
04/02/25	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	2.33	3.03	Buy	Sum of parts
04/08/25	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.11	2.8	Buy	PER16.3x
05/20/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.69	3	Buy
05/20/25	Lim & Tan	Dairy Farm	2.69	2.9	Hold
06/02/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.76	3	Buy
06/02/25	CIMB	Dairy Farm	2.76	3	Add	PER
06/04/25	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	2.65	3.5	Buy	PER20.3x
06/09/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	2.66	3.6	Buy	PER16.7x FY26
06/30/25	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	3.73	3.09	Buy	Sum of parts
07/23/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	3.16	3.6	Buy	PER16.7x FY26
07/24/25	UOB Kay Hian	Dairy Farm	3.45	4.3	Buy	PER22.7x
07/24/25	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	3.45	4.3	Buy	PER18x
07/24/25	CIMB	Dairy Farm	3.45	3.86	Add

CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/12/24	phillip	CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF	0.723	0.87	Buy
07/10/24	phillip	CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF	0.82	0.845	Accumulate
02/05/25	phillip	CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF	0.704	0.805	Accumulate

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/24	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.39	0.56	Buy	PER15x FY24
07/08/24	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.405	0.56	Buy
07/24/24	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.455	0.64	Buy
08/06/24	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.435	0.59	Accumulate
08/08/24	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Buy
09/09/24	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.465	0.64	Buy
11/01/24	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.43	0.59	Buy	PER13x FY25
11/04/24	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.43	0.6	Accumulate
11/06/24	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.425	0.6	Buy
11/18/24	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.435	0.6	Buy
11/29/24	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.465	0.58	Buy	PER13x FY25
12/02/24	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Outperform	DCF
12/30/24	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.435	0.6	Buy
01/02/25	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.415	0.59	Buy	PER13x FY25
01/06/25	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.43	0.64	Buy
02/20/25	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Buy
02/27/25	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.465	0.61	Buy	PER11x FY25
02/27/25	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.465	0	Sell
03/21/25	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Outperform	DCF
03/21/25	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.465	0.67	Buy
05/06/25	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.425	0.62	Accumulate on weakness
05/06/25	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.425	0.58	Buy
05/16/25	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.445	0.61	Buy	PER11x FY25
05/22/25	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.44	0.63	Buy
05/23/25	CIMB	CSE Global	0.44	0.68	Add
06/30/25	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.55	0.7	Buy
07/17/25	Kim Eng	CSE Global	0.63	0.7	Buy

Stock calls for 1 August 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.79	4.02	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.895	1.56	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	Uob Kay Hian	Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust	2.2	2.72	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	0.76	0.75	Hold	DCF
08/01/25	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	0.8	0.7	Hold	DDM
08/01/25	phillip	Elite ComReit	0.345	0.39	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	phillip	First Reit	0.275	0.31	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.22	3.07	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Logistics	0.88	1.23	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	0.88	1.05	Buy	DCF
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	8.47	9.51	Buy	Sum of parts
08/01/25	CIMB	Keppel Corp	8.47	10.23	Add	Sum of parts
08/01/25	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	8.47	8.89	Accumulate
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel DC Reit	2.37	2.69	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.55	0.76	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	1.29	1.8	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	3.04	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	OCBC	16.87	14.4	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY26
08/01/25	Lim & Tan	OCBC	16.87	17.46	Hold
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	4.03	5.33	Buy	DDM
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Seatrium	2.27	2.96	Buy	PB1.5x
08/01/25	DBS Vickers	Seatrium	2.27	2.96	Buy	PB1.5x FY25
08/01/25	CIMB	Seatrium	2.27	2.8	Add	PB
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	2.1	2.4	Buy	PER23x FY26
08/01/25	phillip	Sheng Siong	2.1	2.3	Accumulate	PER23x FY26
08/01/25	CIMB	Sheng Siong	2.1	2.21	Add
08/01/25	UOB Kay Hian	Suntec Reit	1.16	1.3	Hold	DDM

What will the US Fed do on 30 July 2025? - Part 2

Just as expected, the US Fed maintained its rates for its July FOMC meeting.  Is the Fed right?

Let's take a look at the latest core PCE.

The latest core PCE had increased to 0.3% (mom).  This showed that Trump's tariffs are trickling into the inflation data now.  The US inflation data will get worse after this report because the minimum tariff is 15% now.

Cromwell EUR - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/26/24	DMG & Partners	Cromwell EUR	1.41	2.05	Buy
07/01/24	phillip	Cromwell EUR	1.4	1.91	Buy	DDM
08/08/24	DBS Vickers	Cromwell EUR	1.43	1.9	Buy	DCF
08/08/24	DMG & Partners	Cromwell EUR	1.43	1.9	Buy
08/12/24	phillip	Cromwell EUR	1.41	1.91	Buy	DDM
09/10/24	OCBC	Cromwell EUR	1.54	1.87	Buy	DDM
09/23/24	phillip	Cromwell EUR	1.62	1.91	Buy	DDM
10/18/24	phillip	Cromwell EUR	1.6	1.91	Buy	DDM
11/05/24	DBS Vickers	Cromwell EUR	1.65	1.9	Buy	DCF
11/06/24	phillip	Cromwell EUR	1.64	1.95	Buy	DDM
11/07/24	OCBC	Cromwell EUR	1.61	1.89	Buy
11/13/24	DMG & Partners	Cromwell EUR	1.64	1.9	Buy	DDM
12/26/24	Lim & Tan	Cromwell EUR	1.59	1.89	Accumulate

Credit Bureau - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/15/24	CIMB	Credit Bureau	0.905	1.3	Add	DCF
02/26/25	CIMB	Credit Bureau	1.18	1.3	Add	DCF

Creative Technology - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/26/24	Lim & Tan	Creative Tech	1.2	1	Sell	BV
10/10/24	Lim & Tan	Creative Tech	1.28	0	Avoid

Stock calls for 31 July 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/31/25	Phillip	ART	0.905	1.05	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	OCBC	Ascendas India Trust	1.17	1.44	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	Lim & Tan	CDL Hospitality	0.825	0.82	Hold
07/31/25	phillip	Far East Hospitality	0.61	0.7	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	Lim & Tan	First Reit	0.27	0.3	Hold
07/31/25	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.3	7.2	Buy	RNAV (35% disc)
07/31/25	CIMB	ISDN	0.365	0.44	Add
07/31/25	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.97	1.18	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.97	1.08	Add	DDM
07/31/25	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.31	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/31/25	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.31	1.35	Buy	DDM
07/31/25	UOB Kay Hian	Oiltek	0.89	1.05	Buy	PER33x FY26, PEG1x
07/31/25	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.02	Neutral	DCF
07/31/25	DBS Vickers	SGX	15.71	18.2	Buy
07/31/25	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	2.13	2.3	Buy	PER20.9x FY26
07/31/25	DBS Vickers	SIA	6.9	6.5	Hold

The US headline GDP looks good but the underlying truth sucks.

Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q1 GDP (Final estimate) = (-0.1) + 3.9 + 0.31 + (-4.61) = -0.5

Q2 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.08 + (-3.09) + 0.98 + 4.99 = 2.96 (3)

From the above comparison between the 2 quarters, we can see that the government spending (G) has only a marginal increase.  However, there are significant changes in investment (I) and net export (NE).  The I has a significant drop that shows previous front-loaded inventories to avoid the higher tariffs are being depleted without massive replenishment.  We can see that the NE has a big increment that indicates overwhelming exports but underwhelming imports.

In layman's terms, export means past demand and import means future demand.  When there are overwhelming exports but underwhelming imports, we can deduce that the future outlook is very dour because the producers are just fulfilling past orders for deliveries without getting many new orders that ensue underwhelming imports to produce goods.

Why are the producers unwilling to import more to produce more goods?  This may indicate weak consumer demand ahead as there is no significant increase in consumption (C).