UMS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/03/24	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.21	1	Hold
07/02/24	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.17	1	Hold
08/13/24	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.06	1	Hold
08/14/24	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.07	1.08	Hold	PER15x FY25
10/16/24	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.05	0.9	Sell
11/11/24	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.04	1.08	Hold	PER16x FY25
11/12/24	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.04	0.95	Hold	PER16x FY25
11/12/24	Kim Eng	UMS	1.04	1.03	Hold
03/04/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.07	1.21	Buy	PER17.6x FY25
03/04/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.07	1.31	Buy	PER18x FY25
03/04/25	Lim & Tan	UMS	1.07	1.16	Hold
03/04/25	Kim Eng	UMS	1.07	1.16	Buy	PER14x FY25/26
04/10/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.93	1.31	Buy	PER18x FY25
04/22/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.02	1.21	Buy	PER17.6x FY25
05/13/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.05	1.31	Buy	PER18x FY25
05/13/25	Lim & Tan	UMS	1.05	1.23	Accumulate
05/14/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.12	1.32	Buy	PER17.5x FY26
05/14/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.12	1.38	Buy	PER18.8x FY25/26
05/16/25	Kim Eng	UMS	1.15	1.19	Buy
06/12/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.21	1.32	Buy	PER17.5x FY26
07/16/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.39	1.73	Buy	PER23x FY26
07/22/25	Kim Eng	UMS	1.46	1.59	Buy
07/25/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.48	1.84	Buy	PER25x FY25/26
08/05/25	UOB Kay Hian	UMS	1.54	1.73	Buy	PER23x FY26
08/14/25	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.48	1.84	Buy	PER25x FY25/26
08/14/25	Kim Eng	UMS	1.48	1.59	Buy
08/25/25	CIMB	UMS	1.38	1.87	Add	Up from $1.06

Stock calls for 26 September 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/26/25	Phillip	Geo Energy	0.45	0.59	Buy	DCF
09/26/25	DMG & Partners	Isoteam	0.084	0.078	Neutral
09/26/25	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	8.87	9.94	Accumulate
09/26/25	UOB Kay Hian	Marco Polo	0.077	0.088	Buy	PER11.3x FY26
09/26/25	UOB Kay Hian	Seatrium	2.44	2.96	Buy	PB1.5x
09/26/25	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	2.11	2.3	Buy	PER20.9x FY26
09/26/25	Lim & Tan	Wilmar	2.89	0	Avoid
09/26/25	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	2.89	2.5	Sell	Sum of parts

President Trump has distorted the US GDP! - Part 2

Let's break down the GDP numbers to see what had happened.

GDP growth = G + I + C + NE

Q2 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.08 + (-3.09) + 0.98 + 4.99 = 2.96 (3)

Q2 GDP (2nd estimate) = (-0.03) + (-2.7) + 1.07 + 4.95 = 3.29 (3.3)

Q2 GDP (Final estimate) = (-0.01) + (-2.66) + 1.68 + 4.83 = 3.84 (3.8)

We can see that G & I are negative which means that the government spending is still being restricted and Investment is still dropping because exports exceed imports by a significant margin and this wide margin causes net export to be positive.  In other words, the US is no longer the world buyer but the world seller and this is completely different from last year.

Let's make a comparison with Q2 2024 and we can see the significant changes.

Q2 GDP 2024 (Final) = 0.52 + 1.47 + 1.9 + (-0.9) = 2.99 (3)

In Q2 2024, the G, I and C were all positive except for the negative NE because the US was a world buyer back then.  In 2025, the US became the world seller after the imposition of Trump's tariffs by dumping its goods in Europe and Asia.

Tiong Woon - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/24/24	Lim & Tan	Tiong Woon	0.5	0.87	Buy
09/27/24	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.51	0.87	Buy
10/11/24	Lim & Tan	Tiong Woon	0.525	0.87	Accumulate
03/14/25	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.575	0.87	Buy
06/23/25	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.58	0.64	Buy	PB0.45X FY25
07/10/25	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.695	0.64	Buy	PB0.45X FY25
08/29/25	Lim & Tan	Tiong Woon	0.775	0	Buy
09/02/25	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.785	0.73	Hold	PB0.5x FY26

Thomson Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/27/24	Kim Eng	Thomson Medical	0.05	0.06	Buy
09/16/24	Phillip	Thomson Medical	0.05	0.061	Buy	Sum of parts
12/16/24	Kim Eng	Thomson Medical	0.05	0.06	Buy
01/20/25	Kim Eng	Thomson Medical	0.048	0.06	Buy
02/13/25	Kim Eng	Thomson Medical	0.044	0.05	Hold	EV/Ebitda
02/18/25	Phillip	Thomson Medical	0.046	0.048	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/27/25	Lim & Tan	Thomson Medical	0.06	0.049	Hold
09/03/25	Phillip	Thomson Medical	0.06	0.074	Buy	Sum of parts

Thakral - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/25	Phillip	Thakral	1.52	2.04	Buy	PER8.4x FY25
06/18/25	Lim & Tan	Thakral	1.44	2.04	Accumulate
08/25/25	Phillip	Thakral	1.43	2.12	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 25 September 2025

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/25/25	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	2.68	3.4	Buy
09/25/25	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	2.65	2.99	Buy
09/25/25	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	2.65	2.95	Buy
09/25/25	UOB Kay Hian	LHN	0.985	1.12	Buy	PER12x FY26
09/25/25	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.42	1.6	Buy	Sum of parts
09/25/25	Lim & Tan	Marco Polo	0.076	0.086	Buy
09/25/25	CIMB	SATS	3.39	3.83	Add	DCF

Thai Beverage - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/24	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.48	0.69	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x
06/24/24	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.47	0.57	Buy	Sum of parts
06/24/24	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.47	0.63	Add
07/01/24	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.45	0.63	Buy	PER16x FY24
07/01/24	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.45	0.69	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x
07/09/24	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.44	0.71	Buy	Sum of parts
07/18/24	Lim & Tan	Thai Beverage	0.495	0.64	Accumulate
07/19/24	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.6	Buy
07/26/24	Kiatnakin	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.81	Buy
07/26/24	JPM	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.64	Overweight
07/26/24	HSBC	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.59	Buy
08/12/24	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.63	Buy	PER16x FY24
08/16/24	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.475	0.71	Buy	Sum of parts
10/02/24	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.525	0.69	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x
10/15/24	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.53	0.56	Buy
10/15/24	Goldman Sachs	Thai Beverage	0.53	0.61	Neutral
11/13/24	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.51	0.77	Buy	PER16x FY25
11/22/24	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.56	Buy	Sum of parts
11/22/24	Lim & Tan	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.67	Accumulate
11/25/24	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.525	0.64	Buy	PER14x FY25
11/26/24	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.53	0.71	Buy	Sum of parts
01/03/25	Goldman Sachs	Thai Beverage	0.56	0.72	Buy
01/07/25	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.565	0.77	Buy	PER16x FY25
02/04/25	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.54	0.77	Buy	PER16x FY25
02/17/25	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.56	Buy	Sum of parts
02/17/25	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.5	0.56	Accumulate	PER12x FY25
03/24/25	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.52	0.58	Add
05/13/25	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.63	Buy	PER16x FY25
05/13/25	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.56	Accumulate	PER12x FY25
05/13/25	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.51	Hold	Sum of parts
06/16/25	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.515	0.69	Buy	Sum of parts
06/16/25	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.46	0.45	Hold	Sum of parts
06/23/25	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.445	0.63	Buy	PER16x FY25
06/23/25	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.445	0.56	Buy	PER12x FY25
07/22/25	Kim Eng	Thai Beverage	0.475	0.45	Hold
08/15/25	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.475	0.63	Buy	PER16x FY25
08/15/25	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.475	0.56	Add	PER
09/02/25	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.465	0.65	Buy	Sum of parts