Sembcorp Industries - CIMB is a strong supporter for this stock

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/26/10 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 3.77 4.72 Outperform Sum of parts
04/27/10 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 4.39 5.58 Outperform Sum of parts
05/10/10 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 3.91 5.58 Outperform Sum of parts
05/18/10 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 4.18 5.58 Outperform Sum of parts

02/26/10 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 3.7 4.91 Buy Sum of parts

05/12/10 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Industries 4.15 4.63 Buy Sum of parts
05/13/10 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Industries 4.15 4.63 Buy Sum of parts

02/26/10 Kim Eng Sembcorp Industries 3.7 4.14 Buy Sum of parts, PER10.6x
04/27/10 Kim Eng Sembcorp Industries 4.39 4.38 Hold PER11.5x
04/28/10 Kim Eng Sembcorp Industries 4.36 4.38 Hold
05/11/10 Kim Eng Sembcorp Industries 4.04 4.38 Hold Sum of parts

02/26/10 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 3.7 0 Buy
04/27/10 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 4.39 0 Buy

Capital flight from EU to US?

From the chart dated 18/05/2010, it seems to show that funds are flowing into the US stock market as the average trading volume has reversed trend and is on an upward trend. This EU crisis will only benefit US temporarily but the trend will reverse and there will be capital outflows out of US later.

A new crisis in the offing?

If Euro were to continue to fall, there'll be chaos in Europe as there'll be capital flights and inflations will also start popping up everywhere in Europe.  Thereafter, exports to Europe will falter and the world will spiral down into the abyss again. Watch how the story will unfold by closely monitoring the euro.  It will be impossible for US to escape unscathed if EU becomes disintegrated.

NOL - A shipping liner in trouble?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/12/10 CIMB NOL 1.9 2.6 Outperform PB1.8x
01/26/10 CIMB NOL 1.74 2.6 Outperform PB1.8x
02/02/10 CIMB NOL 1.7 2.6 Outperform
03/02/10 CIMB NOL 1.81 2.6 Outperform PB1.8x
03/30/10 CIMB NOL 1.93 2.6 Outperform PB1.8x
04/27/10 CIMB NOL 2.18 2.6 Outperform PB1.8x
05/17/10 CIMB NOL 2.14 2.5 Outperform PB1.8x

03/31/10 DBS Vickers NOL 1.98 2.4 Buy EV/Ebita 7x, PB1.6x
04/15/10 DBS Vickers NOL 2.3 2.4 Buy EV/Ebita 7x
05/13/10 DBS Vickers NOL 2.1 2.4 Buy
05/17/10 DBS Vickers NOL 2.14 2.5 Buy EV/Ebitda 7x

02/03/10 OCBC NOL 1.73 1.63 Hold NTA1.1x

03/03/10 phillip NOL 1.86 1.95 Hold BV1.3x
04/01/10 phillip NOL 2.01 2.32 Buy PB1.6x
05/17/10 phillip NOL 2.14 2.48 Outperform PB1.6x

CIMB & DBS Vickers have been strong supporters of NOL and both research houses coincidentally called for a BUY today but NOL tumbles today.  What a joke!

Comfortdelgro - Another public transport stock.

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

04/21/10 AmFraser Comfortdelgro 1.59 1.9 Buy

02/11/10 CIMB Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.73 Underperform DCF (10% discount)
04/21/10 CIMB Comfortdelgro 1.59 1.73 Underperform DCF
05/17/10 CIMB Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.73 Underperform DCF (10% discount)

05/17/10 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.64 Hold DCF, PER15x

02/10/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.78 Buy DCF, PER16.5x
02/11/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.78 Neutral DCF, PER16.5x
04/01/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.78 Buy
05/03/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.78 Buy PER13x
05/14/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.78 Buy DCF
05/17/10 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.78 Buy DCF

02/11/10 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 1.57 1.72 Hold
04/21/10 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 1.59 1.72 Hold
05/17/10 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.87 Buy PER17x

03/18/10 phillip Comfortdelgro 1.58 1.68 Hold
05/17/10 phillip Comfortdelgro 1.49 1.73 Buy DCF

SMRT - Is public transport a defensive play?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/27/10 AmFraser SMRT 1.86 2.03 Buy
01/28/10 AmFraser SMRT 1.89 2.19 Buy
04/08/10 AmFraser SMRT 2.13 2.19 Hold
04/21/10 AmFraser SMRT 2.19 2.19 Hold
05/03/10 AmFraser SMRT 2.16 1.99 Hold

01/28/10 CIMB SMRT 1.89 2.26 Outperform DCF
04/21/10 CIMB SMRT 2.19 2.41 Outperform DCF
05/03/10 CIMB SMRT 2.28 2.35 Neutral DCF

04/30/10 Citigroup SMRT 2.15 1.9 Sell PER16.4x, PB3.5x

01/05/10 DBS Vickers SMRT 1.91 2.08 Buy
01/28/10 DBS Vickers SMRT 1.89 2.08 Buy DCF, PER15x
02/23/10 DBS Vickers SMRT 1.94 2.08 Buy
05/03/10 DBS Vickers SMRT 2.28 2 Fully Valued DCF, PER15x

01/28/10 DMG & Partners SMRT 1.89 2 Buy DCF, PER16.5x
04/05/10 DMG & Partners SMRT 2.05 2 Buy DCF
04/30/10 DMG & Partners SMRT 2.28 2 Neutral
05/03/10 DMG & Partners SMRT 2.28 2 Neutral PER21x

03/16/10 Kim Eng SMRT 1.99 0 Buy
04/13/10 Kim Eng SMRT 2.13 2.22 Buy PER20x
04/21/10 Kim Eng SMRT 2.19 2.47 Buy

01/28/10 Lim & Tan SMRT 1.89 0 Buy
04/21/10 Lim & Tan SMRT 2.19 0 Buy

03/08/10 OCBC SMRT 1.96 2.05 Buy DDM
04/07/10 OCBC SMRT 2.09 2.22 Buy DDM, PER19x

03/18/10 phillip SMRT 2.01 2.19 Buy
04/28/10 phillip SMRT 2.24 2.42 Hold DCF
05/03/10 phillip SMRT 2.28 2.36 Hold
05/03/10 phillip SMRT 2.28 2.36 Hold DCF

Singtel - To buy or hold?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/02/10 AmFraser Singtel 3.01 3.05 Hold
02/09/10 AmFraser Singtel 3.01 3.05 Hold
02/18/10 AmFraser Singtel 3 3.05 Hold
05/10/10 AmFraser Singtel 2.98 3.05 Hold
05/14/10 AmFraser Singtel 2.97 3.04 Hold

01/25/10 CIMB Singtel 3.01 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/04/10 CIMB Singtel 2.99 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/09/10 CIMB Singtel 2.95 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
02/10/10 CIMB Singtel 3.03 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
03/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.05 3.3 Underperform
04/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.19 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
04/05/10 CIMB Singtel 3.2 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
04/15/10 CIMB Singtel 3.15 3.3 Underperform
04/22/10 CIMB Singtel 3.12 3.3 Neutral Sum of parts
04/29/10 CIMB Singtel 3.01 3.3 Underperform Sum of parts
05/12/10 CIMB Singtel 2.98 3.3 Underperform
05/14/10 CIMB Singtel 2.97 3 Underperform Sum of parts

01/25/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.01 3.15 Hold Sum of parts
02/01/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.01 3.5 Buy Sum of parts
02/09/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 2.95 3.5 Buy
02/23/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.02 3.5 Buy
03/15/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.12 3.5 Buy
05/05/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 2.96 3.4 Buy PER12x
05/13/10 DBS Vickers Singtel 3 3.4 Buy Sum of parts

02/10/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.02 2.98 Neutral Sum of parts
04/28/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 3.09 2.98 Neutral
05/10/10 DMG & Partners Singtel 2.98 2.98 Neutral

02/10/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.03 3.42 Buy
03/18/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.2 3.42 Buy
04/01/10 Kim Eng Singtel 3.17 3.42 Buy
05/14/10 Kim Eng Singtel 2.97 3.13 Hold PER12x

02/09/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 2.95 0 Neutral
04/29/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 3.01 0 Neutral
05/13/10 Lim & Tan Singtel 3 0 Neutral

02/09/10 OCBC Singtel 2.95 3.51 Buy Sum of parts
04/26/10 OCBC Singtel 3.14 3.51 Buy
05/14/10 OCBC Singtel 2.97 3.4 Buy Sum of parts

02/10/10 phillip Singtel 3.03 3.52 Buy DCF
05/14/10 phillip Singtel 2.96 3.43 Buy DCF

Sell Straits Asia as OCBC doesn't like it.

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/13/10 CIMB Straits Asia 2.6 3.37 Trading Buy DCF
03/08/10 CIMB Straits Asia 1.99 2.09 Neutral DCF

01/19/10 DBS Vickers Straits Asia 2.57 3.35 Buy DCF
02/25/10 DBS Vickers Straits Asia 2.14 3.2 Buy DCF

04/08/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 1.19 1.4 Buy PER15x
04/12/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 2.21 2.08 Neutral DCF
04/29/10 DMG & Partners Straits Asia 2.04 2.08 Neutral DCF, PER11.4x

01/20/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.57 2.49 Hold
02/25/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.14 1.73 Sell
03/05/10 OCBC Straits Asia 1.97 1.76 Sell
03/10/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.12 1.76 Sell
04/27/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.11 1.76 Sell
04/29/10 OCBC Straits Asia 2.04 1.8 Sell

Is Wilmar still worth to buy at this level?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

03/02/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.67 6.55 Hold PER18x
04/08/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.93 7.31 Hold
05/06/10 AmFraser Wilmar 6.72 7.3 Hold

04/19/10 CIMB Wilmar 6.93 8.4 Outperform
05/12/10 CIMB Wilmar 6.54 8.4 Outperform PER20x

01/05/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.43 7.3 Buy
03/01/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.67 8 Buy DCF
04/08/10 DBS Vickers Wilmar 6.93 8 Buy

03/02/10 DMG & Partners Wilmar 6.67 7.35 Buy PER18.8x

01/15/10 Kim Eng Wilmar 7.04 8.1 Buy Sum of parts
03/02/10 Kim Eng Wilmar 6.67 8.1 Buy PER20x

03/02/10 OCBC Wilmar 6.67 8.23 Buy PER20x

EU rescue package is just like an adrenaline jab.

EU rescue package of $750b doesn't seem to impress investors and euro keeps sliding down after the announcement.  Why?

Well, for a start, EU has to sell debt to raise the fund and lend it to Greece and investors are not willing to buy EU debt especially asian investors as they are doubtful about EU.  Let me use a rhetoric question to explain the attitude of asian investors. "Would you lend money to a debtor when the debtor can't pay existing debt?"

Selling debt at a time like this is not easy as US and other countries are also selling massive debts to raise fund for their own economies.  What EU has just done is just stalling time but the break-up of the 16 nations looks inevitable. This is just like a critically-ill patient who has just being injected with adrenalin.  Greece can only do so much to cut its deficit as its citizens still need to eat and drink.

In conclusion, it is highly likely that Greece will be the first country to break away from the EU.  Taking on more debts when you can't even pay existing debts would not be the solution to a healthier economy.  EU won't be the same continent anymore after this crisis.

First Ship Lease Trust - Various research report calls

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

01/26/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.6 0.78 Buy
04/21/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.64 0.78 Buy
05/05/10 DBS Vickers First Ship Lease Trust 0.545 0.55 Hold 12% Yield

01/26/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.6 0.53 Hold
03/19/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.61 0.53 Hold
04/16/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.65 0.53 Hold
04/22/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.635 0.59 Hold FCFE Model (20% discount)
05/11/10 OCBC First Ship Lease Trust 0.505 0.48 Hold FCFE Model (25% discount)

Is it time to buy Cosco now?

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/23/10 AmFraser Cosco 1.28 1.17 Hold PER17x
03/08/10 AmFraser Cosco 1.21 1.17 Hold PER17x


02/23/10 CIMB Cosco 1.28 0.67 Underperform Sum of parts
03/15/10 CIMB Cosco 1.23 0.87 Underperform Sum of parts


01/08/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.26 0.78 Fully Valued
02/23/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.28 1 Fully Valued Sum of parts
04/07/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.35 1.6 Buy Sum of parts
04/13/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.65 1.8 Buy Sum of parts
04/16/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.75 1.8 Buy
05/07/10 DBS Vickers Cosco 1.56 1.8 Buy Sum of parts


02/23/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.28 0.81 Sell PB1.7x
03/16/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.25 0.81 Sell
04/21/10 Kim Eng Cosco 1.79 1.17 Sell PB2.5x


02/23/10 phillip Cosco 1.28 1.03 Sell BV2.01x
03/16/10 phillip Cosco 1.25 1.45 Buy PB2.8x
05/07/10 phillip Cosco 1.56 1.86 Buy BV3.6x

Greece's debt problem seems to get bigger and bigger.

The rescue package for Greece just seems to get bigger and bigger from the initial Euro $40b and then upped to $110b and upped to $140b over the last few days. This just goes to show that Greece is hiding massive debts from the EU members.  Furthermore, EU has to setup a massive emergency fund to defend euro.  What happens if Spain or Portugal also collapses?  How is EU going to find money to help its member?

EU is setting up a multi-billion stabilization fund to defend EURO.

EU has come together to defend the euro next week and rumour has it that the stabilization fund might be around euro $600b.  Will this scare off currency speculators like George Soros? Let's see.

Countries that need to raise funds urgently.

The following countries that need to raise funds urgently:

Greece
Spain
Portugal
USA
Japan
UK
Russia

When these countries drain huge amount of money from the stock market, there will be a significant drop in liquidity and the stock market won't be able to move up anymore.

Explanation for US big plunge in stock market

The close to 1000 points drop in US market on 6 May was due to computerized trading and may not be due to trader'e error for some who tried to explain the plunge.

The staggered stop-loss levels set by investors/traders triggered the exacerbation of the quick plunge when the Dow Jones index fell to those levels but quickly recovered more than 50% of its loss.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is now at 2988!

Shipping stocks will be badly affected when the world economy is down as BDI will continue to fall and shipments will drop as consumers rein in their spendings.

STI - Singapore stock market is down due to negative market sentiment.

The European-crisis is driving fear in asian markets and Singapore stock market is also affected.  Fundamentally strong stocks will continue to fall and those S-chips are especially vulnerable.

New Century Shipbuilding cancels IPO on SGX

China stocks or S-Chips are really losing integrity big time as this latest cancellation (New Century Shipbuilding) shows that many china stocks are hiding important materials from IPOs and their P&L statements would show huge deteriorations within 2 years of listings.

Many china companies cook their books during IPOs to raise funds from the stock market and they would be suspended and delisted when they have cashflow problems leaving minority shareholders in a dry high situation.

I think it's time we realized that we've to take a pinch of salt from those S-chips and avoid them at all cost as sifting through the good ones are not really worth the effort as we don't know the veracities of their accounts.

OCBC - Research report calls from various research houses

Date/Research House/Stock/Last Done/Target Price/Call/Valuation Method

02/22/10 CIMB OCBC 8.54 9.38 Neutral
04/30/10 CIMB OCBC 8.69 9.38 Neutral


02/04/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.35 9.5 Buy
02/22/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.54 9.5 Buy Gordon Growth Model
03/04/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.45 9.5 Buy Gordon Growth Model
04/08/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.91 10.15 Buy BV1.8x
04/15/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 9.16 10.15 Buy PB1.8x
05/03/10 DBS Vickers OCBC 8.8 10.15 Buy PB1.8x


02/03/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.19 9 Neutral BV1.7x
02/22/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.54 9 Neutral PB1.6x
04/28/10 DMG & Partners OCBC 8.81 9 Neutral PB1.6x


02/22/10 Kim Eng OCBC 8.54 9.5 Hold PB1.65x
03/08/10 Kim Eng OCBC 8.53 9.5 Hold


02/22/10 phillip OCBC 8.54 8.63 Hold NAV1.54x
05/03/10 phillip OCBC 8.8 8.63 Hold Gordon Growth Model