Singapore Stock Exchange - Equity Investments

Monday, March 5, 2018

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.83	0.95	Buy
01/11/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.83	0.95	Outperform	DCF
01/12/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.825	1.01	Buy
01/13/16	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.83	1.05	Buy	DCF, PER25x
02/24/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.865	0.95	Add	PER22x CY17
02/24/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.865	1.01	Buy
02/24/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.865	0.94	Outperform	DCF, PER19.2x
02/24/16	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.865	1	Buy
02/25/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.87	0.95	Buy	DCF
02/26/16	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.86	0.97	Accumulate	PER23x FY16
03/17/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.85	0.95	Add
03/28/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.84	0.95	Buy
04/11/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.84	0.95	Add	PER22x CY17
04/15/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.865	1.01	Buy
04/28/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.89	1.04	Buy
04/28/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.94	Outperform	DCF
04/28/16	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.89	1	Buy
04/28/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.95	Buy
04/29/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.97	Add	PER22x CY17
04/29/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.97	Outperform	DCF
04/29/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.95	Buy
04/29/16	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.97	Accumulate	PER23x
06/07/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.895	0.97	Add	PER22x CY17
06/17/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.875	0.97	Outperform	DCF
06/24/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.87	0.95	Buy
06/28/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.865	1.12	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY17
07/05/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.89	0.97	Outperform	DCF
07/05/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.89	1.12	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY17
07/27/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.04	Add	PER22x CY17
07/27/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.09	Buy
07/27/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.13	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY17
07/28/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.985	1.07	Outperform	DCF
07/28/16	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.985	1.12	Buy	DCF, PER24.5x FY17
07/28/16	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.985	1.1	Accumulate	PER23x FY17
08/25/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.09	Buy
08/25/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.07	Buy
09/08/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.11	Outperform	DCF
09/16/16	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.13	Hold	PER25.1x FY17, Buy @ $1.01
09/21/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.075	1.07	Buy
09/28/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.13	Hold
09/30/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.18	Buy	PER25x FY17
10/05/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.075	1.15	Buy	DCF
10/27/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.14	Add	PER23.3x CY18
10/27/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.19	Buy	PER25x FY17
10/28/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.05	Hold	DCF
10/28/16	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.21	Buy	DCF
10/28/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.06	Hold	DCF
10/28/16	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.13	Accumulate	PER23x FY17
10/28/16	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.12	Hold	PER25.1x FY17
11/22/16	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1	1.15	Buy
12/06/16	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.015	1.14	Add	PER23.3x CY18
12/08/16	DIR	Sheng Siong	1.01	1.04	Hold	DCF, PER21.9x
12/09/16	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.01	1.19	Buy	PER25x FY17
12/09/16	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.01	1.12	Hold
12/14/16	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.99	0.88	Sell	DCF & PER20x FY17
01/03/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.95	1.21	Buy	DCF, PER26x FY17
01/19/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.925	1.19	Buy
01/20/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.12	Buy	PER25.1x FY17
02/01/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.15	Buy
02/07/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.95	1.21	Buy
02/24/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.955	1.04	Hold	DCF
02/27/17	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.955	0.94	Hold	PER23.3x CY18
02/27/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.955	1.13	Buy	PER25x FY17
02/27/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.955	1.01	Hold	DCF
02/27/17	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.955	0.85	Sell	DCF
02/27/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.955	1.06	Accumulate	PER23x
02/27/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.955	1.08	Buy	PER23.2x FY18
03/08/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.94	1.21	Buy	DCF
03/14/17	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.94	0.94	Hold	PER23.3x CY18
03/17/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.935	1.13	Buy
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.995	1.13	Buy	PER25x FY17
04/17/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.99	1.06	Accumulate
05/02/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.98	1.01	Hold	DCF
05/02/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.98	1.21	Buy	DCF
05/02/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.98	1.15	Buy
05/03/17	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.975	0.94	Hold
05/03/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.975	1.14	Buy	PER25x FY17
05/03/17	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	0.975	0.85	Sell	DCF
05/03/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.975	1.06	Accumulate	PER23x FY17
05/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.975	1.09	Buy	PER23.2x FY18
06/13/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.98	1.15	Buy
06/14/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.985	1.01	Hold	DCF
06/16/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.975	1.14	Buy
06/21/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.975	1.2	Buy	PER25x FY18
07/04/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1	1.21	Buy
07/14/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.98	1.15	Buy
07/28/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.95	1.01	Hold	DCF
07/28/17	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.95	0.94	Hold	PER23.3x CY18
07/28/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.95	1.2	Buy	PER25x FY18
07/31/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.96	0.86	Underperform	DCF
07/31/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.06	Accumulate	PER23x
07/31/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.06	Hold	PER23.2x FY18, Buy @ $0.90
07/31/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.05	Neutral	DCF & PER20x
07/31/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.96	1.04	Buy
09/07/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.92	1.04	Buy
10/27/17	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.19	Buy	PER25x FY18
10/27/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.93	0.98	Neutral	DCF & PER18x
10/27/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.93	0.88	Underperform	DCF
10/30/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.94	1.13	Buy	PER23x
10/30/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.94	1.06	Hold	PER22.5x FY18
10/30/17	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.94	1.04	Buy
10/30/17	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.94	0.98	Hold	PER22.6x CY18
11/20/17	DIR	Sheng Siong	0.965	0.88	Underperform	DCF
11/29/17	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.95	0.98	Neutral
12/04/17	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.935	1.18	Buy
02/19/18	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.915	0.99	Neutral	Up from $0.93
02/20/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	0.92	1.06	Hold
02/23/18	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	0.925	1.2	Buy	PER25x FY18
02/26/18	phillip	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.13	Buy	PER23x FY18
02/26/18	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	0.93	0.98	Neutral	DCF & PER
02/26/18	OCBC	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.06	Buy
02/26/18	CIMB	Sheng Siong	0.93	1.08	Add	PER22.3x CY19

Stock calls for 5 March 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.61	3.05	Buy
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Banyan Tree	0.585	0.92	Buy
03/05/18	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.72	0.99	Buy
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.72	2.09	Buy
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.59	4.3	Buy
03/05/18	CIMB	China Sunsine	1.35	1.62	Add	PER9.8x CY19
03/05/18	phillip	China Sunsine	1.35	1.6	Buy	FCFE
03/05/18	phillip	City Developments	12.69	13.4	Accumulate	RNAV (15% discount), PB1.29x FY18
03/05/18	Credit Suisse	City Developments	12.69	16.5	Outperform
03/05/18	Amfrasers	Cityneon	1.06	1.54	Buy	PER14x FY18
03/05/18	OCBC	DBS	28.41	32.53	Buy	PB1.7x
03/05/18	Credit Suisse	DBS	28.41	31.1	Outperform
03/05/18	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.76	2.2	Buy
03/05/18	CIMB	Genting	1.15	1.49	Add	EV/Ebitda12x FY19
03/05/18	Credit Suisse	Keppel Corp	7.87	10	Outperform
03/05/18	CIMB	Keppel Corp	7.87	10	Add	Sum of parts
03/05/18	OCBC	Keppel Corp	7.87	9.45	Buy
03/05/18	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.52	0	Buy
03/05/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.47	0.76	Add
03/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.12	3.59	Buy
03/05/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.02	3.01	Add	PB2.5x FY18
03/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.02	2.07	Hold	PB1.7x FY18/19
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.55	2.42	Sell
03/05/18	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.36	3.8	Add
03/05/18	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.95	Buy
03/05/18	OCBC	UOB	27.75	30.86	Buy	PB1.3x FY18
03/05/18	Credit Suisse	Venture	26.84	32	Outperform
03/05/18	CIMB	Wilmar	3.18	4.1	Add
03/05/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.41	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.3x
03/05/18	Phillip	Y Venture	0.68	0.7	Neutral	PER30x FY18
03/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Y Venture	0.68	0.8	Buy	Up from $0.65

Top management plundered Noble Group.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/03/04/noble-group-paid-co-ceo-20-million-as-company-lost-5-billion

Noble's co-CEO was paid 20m while the company was making huge losses under his helm. Other key personnel were also paid highly for their incompetence.

No wonder Noble Group is facing a bankruptcy soon.

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Belligerent Trump extolled trade wars!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-wars-good-trump-says-defying-global-concern-000343651--finance.html

Trade wars are good! Really?

Let's sell all USD bonds and cripple the USA!

Bitcoin has low transaction volume now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-transaction-volume-puzzling-investors-111215281.html

The drop in transaction volume is definitely a precursory warning. My life experiences had taught me that declining transaction volumes were usually presaged by declining prices. I've seen this phenomenon in the property market, commodity market and the stock market in my entire life.

The reasons for this declining transaction volume are no worldwide adoption for the bitcoin payment and loss of faith in crypto.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/another-merchant-has-dumped-bitcoin.html

Baltic dry index - 1207

Today, Friday, March 02 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 11 points, reaching 1207 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=======================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 981

HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by three this week to 981.

That exceeds the 756 rigs that were active this time a year ago.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that 800 rigs drilled for oil this week and 181 for gas.

Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Oklahoma increased by three rigs, Alaska and Pennsylvania each gained two rigs and New Mexico and Texas each increased by one.

Colorado decreased by three rigs, North Dakota lost two rigs and Louisiana lost one.

Arkansas, California, Ohio, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

=====================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, March 2, 2018

SGX - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/21/16	CIMB	SGX	6.65	7.16	Hold	DDM, PER19x
01/21/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	6.65	7.8	Buy	DDM, PER23x FY16
01/21/16	Goldman Sachs	SGX	6.65	7.1	Neutral
01/21/16	DMG & Partners	SGX	6.65	8.13	Buy	PER23x FY17
01/21/16	Jefferies	SGX	6.65	8.5	Buy
01/21/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	6.65	0	Buy
01/21/16	Nomura	SGX	6.65	7.9	Neutral
01/21/16	OCBC	SGX	6.65	7.06	Buy	PER21x FY16
01/26/16	Credit Suisse	SGX	6.91	8	Neutral
01/26/16	Deutsche	SGX	6.91	8.3	Buy
02/26/16	OCBC	SGX	7.01	7.01	Hold	Buy @ $6.70
02/26/16	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.01	7.4	Neutral
02/29/16	Macquarie	SGX	7.26	8.5	Outperform
03/03/16	phillip	SGX	7.38	8.28	Accumulate	PER24.5x
04/06/16	CIMB	SGX	7.78	7.16	Reduce	DDM
04/06/16	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.78	7.5	Neutral
04/11/16	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.65	8.13	Buy	PER23x FY17
04/21/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	8.05	7.7	Hold	DDM, PER24x FY16
04/21/16	Deutsche	SGX	8.05	8.1	Hold
04/21/16	DMG & Partners	SGX	8.05	9.04	Buy	PER26x FY17
04/21/16	Jefferies	SGX	8.05	8.5	Buy
04/21/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	8.05	0	Buy
04/21/16	OCBC	SGX	8.05	7.4	Hold	PER22x FY16/17
04/21/16	phillip	SGX	8.05	8.62	Accumulate	PER24.5x
05/27/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.58	0	Buy
07/15/16	OCBC	SGX	7.79	7.4	Hold
07/15/16	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.79	7.4	Neutral
07/19/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.8	7.7	Hold
07/22/16	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.82	9.04	Buy	PER26x FY17
07/28/16	CIMB	SGX	7.74	7.24	Reduce	DDM
07/28/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.74	7.8	Hold
07/28/16	Deutsche	SGX	7.74	7.5	Hold
07/28/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.74	0	Sell
07/28/16	OCBC	SGX	7.74	7.36	Hold	PER21x
07/29/16	phillip	SGX	7.66	7.99	Accumulate	PER24.5x
07/29/16	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.66	7.5	Neutral
08/08/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.57	7.8	Hold
08/08/16	OCBC	SGX	7.57	7.36	Hold
08/23/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.66	0	Hold
09/16/16	phillip	SGX	7.45	7.99	Accumulate	PER24.5x
09/28/16	OCBC	SGX	7.47	7.36	Hold
10/13/16	CIMB	SGX	7.27	7.24	Reduce	DDM
10/18/16	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.21	7.6	Neutral
10/20/16	CIMB	SGX	7.22	7.04	Reduce	DDM
10/20/16	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.22	0	Hold
10/20/16	OCBC	SGX	7.22	7.36	Hold
10/20/16	phillip	SGX	7.22	7.69	Accumulate	PER24.3x
10/21/16	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.21	7.6	Hold	DDM
11/09/16	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.01	7.6	Neutral
11/23/16	CIMB	SGX	7.15	7.23	Hold	DDM
12/02/16	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.34	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
12/06/16	CIMB	SGX	7.31	7.23	Hold	DDM
12/07/16	Deutsche	SGX	7.3	7.5	Hold
12/09/16	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.4	7.6	Neutral
01/11/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.24	7.6	Neutral
01/11/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.24	7.3	Neutral
01/11/17	Deutsche	SGX	7.24	7	Hold
01/16/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.39	8.3	Buy	DDM
01/16/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.39	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
01/16/17	UBS	SGX	7.39	8	Buy
01/20/17	CIMB	SGX	7.48	7.23	Hold	DDM
01/20/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.48	0	Buy
01/20/17	OCBC	SGX	7.48	7.64	Hold	PER22x, Buy @ $7.20 or lower
02/09/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.55	7.6	Neutral
02/14/17	Macquarie	SGX	7.62	8.25	Outperform
03/09/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.57	7.6	Neutral
03/09/17	phillip	SGX	7.57	7.75	Accumulate
03/14/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.58	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
03/17/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.63	8.3	Buy
03/28/17	CIMB	SGX	7.56	8.09	Add	PER24x FY18
03/28/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.56	8.5	Overweight	Up from $7.90
03/28/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.56	7.95	Neutral
04/10/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.66	7.6	Neutral
04/12/17	CIMB	SGX	7.58	8.09	Add	PER24x FY18
04/12/17	UBS	SGX	7.58	8.4	Buy
04/21/17	CIMB	SGX	7.45	8.16	Add	PER24x FY18
04/21/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.45	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
04/21/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.45	0	Buy
04/21/17	Macquarie	SGX	7.45	7.5	Neutral	DDM, PER22.3x
04/21/17	OCBC	SGX	7.45	7.53	Hold	Buy @ $7.1 or lower
04/21/17	phillip	SGX	7.45	7.45	Neutral	PER23.9x
04/21/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.45	7.8	Neutral
05/08/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.43	7.6	Neutral
05/24/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.41	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
05/24/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.41	7.9	Neutral
06/20/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.34	9	Buy	PER24x FY18
06/20/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.34	0	Buy
07/28/17	CIMB	SGX	7.54	8.04	Add	PER24x FY18
07/28/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.54	7.6	Neutral
07/28/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.54	9	Buy	PER24x FY18
07/28/17	OCBC	SGX	7.54	7.83	Hold	PER23x
07/28/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.54	8.4	Overweight
07/31/17	phillip	SGX	7.59	7.63	Accumulate	PER23.9x
07/31/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.59	8.2	Buy	PER24x FY18
09/08/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.46	7.6	Neutral
09/18/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.42	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
09/27/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.44	8.5	Buy
10/11/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.64	7.6	Neutral
10/11/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.64	8.3	Overweight
10/17/17	phillip	SGX	7.66	8.39	Accumulate	PER23.9x
10/19/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.63	0	Buy
10/26/17	CIMB	SGX	7.57	8.21	Add	PER24x FY19
10/26/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.57	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
10/26/17	OCBC	SGX	7.57	7.87	Hold
10/26/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.57	8.4	Buy	DDM, PER24x FY18
10/27/17	phillip	SGX	7.61	8.31	Accumulate	PER23.9x
11/21/17	phillip	SGX	7.52	8.31	Accumulate	PER23.9x
11/21/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.52	8.4	Overweight
11/21/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.52	8.6	Buy
12/04/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.55	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
12/20/17	CIMB	SGX	7.43	8.21	Add
12/20/17	Kim Eng	SGX	7.43	8.3	Buy
01/22/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.98	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
01/22/18	Kim Eng	SGX	7.98	8.82	Buy	PER23x FY19
01/22/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.98	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19
01/22/18	OCBC	SGX	7.98	8.16	Hold	PER24x FY18
01/22/18	CIMB	SGX	7.98	8.5	Add	PER24x FY19
01/22/18	phillip	SGX	7.98	9	Accumulate	DCF
01/22/18	UBS	SGX	7.98	8.7	Buy
02/07/18	CIMB	SGX	7.88	8.5	Add	PER24x FY19
02/07/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.88	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
02/07/18	OCBC	SGX	7.88	8.16	Hold
02/07/18	Kim Eng	SGX	7.88	8.82	Buy	PER23x FY19
02/07/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.88	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19
02/13/18	JP Morgan	SGX	7.31	9	Overweight
02/13/18	Jefferies	SGX	7.31	8	Buy
02/13/18	UBS	SGX	7.31	8.7	Buy
02/13/18	CIMB	SGX	7.31	7.85	Hold	PER24x FY19
02/13/18	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.31	6.6	Sell
02/14/18	phillip	SGX	7.3	8.89	Buy	DCF
02/19/18	Jefferies	SGX	7.37	8	Buy
02/20/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.71	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19

Serial System - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/16/16	NRA	Serial System	0.12	0.2	Overweight
08/18/16	NRA	Serial System	0.137	0.2	Overweight	PER12.2x FY17
03/23/17	NRA	Serial System	0.178	0.24	Overweight	PER11.3x FY17

Stock calls for 2 March 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/02/18	SAC Advisors	Advancer Global Ltd	0.285	0.36	Buy
03/02/18	CIMB	AEM	6.3	8.19	Add	PER10x CY19
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.95	Buy
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.51	1.98	Buy	PER13x FY18
03/02/18	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.51	2	Buy	PER13.3x
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.45	0.65	Buy
03/02/18	phillip	China Everbright	0.45	0.6	Buy	PER12.5x
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Citic Envirotech	0.735	1.06	Buy
03/02/18	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.87	0.98	Buy	DDM
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	28.8	30.4	Buy
03/02/18	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.7	1.07	Buy	PER18x FY18
03/02/18	phillip	Ho Bee	2.51	2.98	Accumulate	RNAV (30% discount)
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.34	0.36	Hold	DCF
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	8.01	9.3	Buy
03/02/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.091	0.15	Buy
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	13.21	14.9	Buy
03/02/18	phillip	Q & M	0.635	0.625	Hold	PER27x FY18
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.73
03/02/18	Kim Eng	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.7	Buy	PER27x FY18
03/02/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER26x FY18
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.36	4.4	Buy
03/02/18	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	3.38	0	Buy
03/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Wing Tai	2.2	2.78	Buy
03/02/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.45	1.49	Hold	Sum of parts
03/02/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.45	1.51	Hold	Sum of parts
03/02/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.3	0.57	Add	PB0.8x FY19

Singapore is proposing ASEAN-EU integration in its capacity as ASEAN Chairman.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/time-is-right-for-asean-and-the-eu-to-pursue-greater-integration-singapore-trade

The ASEAN summit will convene in April 2018 and Singapore is proposing an ASEAN-EU integration in its capacity as chairman. Currently, China-ASEAN meeting is convened in Vietnam.

Singapore knows that it has lost the trust of China as Philippines is now the de facto ASEAN facilitator. Therefore, SG is proposing an ASEAN-EU integration to counterbalance Philippines-China leadership in ASEAN.

Let's see how this will pan out. Hopefully, SG won't be ostracized by other ASEAN members in the end.

Danger is lurking for Hong Kong stock market!

https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/2018/02/28/hong-kong-dollar-falls-to-weakest-since-2007-as-rate-gap-widens

HK dollar is pegged to USD at $7.8 but HK dollar has been depreciating and is at 7.829 now.

The depreciation in the HKD has caused a decoupling of interest rates between Hibor & USD Libor. The interest rates between HK & US should move in synchronization under normal circumstances. In a nutshell, HK will follow any increase or decrease in US interest rate. However, the ample liquidity in HKD is causing an aberration that results in huge Hibor & Libor spread of over 90 basis points.

The HKMA is compelled to intervene in the currency market when it exceeds HKD$7.85 by raising the interest rate to narrow the Hibor-Libor spread. However, this monetary policy move will cause some negative multiplier effect in the property and stock markets. The property industry will collapse under the weight of higher interest rate. Thereafter, the stock market will collapse because HK stock market is heavily property weighted.

Furthermore, China investors have been retreating from HK stock market because they're turning cautious. China investors are net sellers of HK stock market recently.

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2134835/hong-kongs-stock-index-futures-rise-drop-treasury-yield

This chain of events reminisces the Asian Financial Crisis in the past. First, the currency depreciates and forces the government to act by hiking interest rates to support the currency strength. Then, other interest rate sensitive sectors get affected by the increasing interest rates which result in the collapse of the stock market.

India raises import tax for palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/india-raises-import-tax-palm-031144820.html

As India is having 3 types of deficits coupled with the USA's demand for tariff cut from India, India has to make up for the shortfalls by raising import taxes from South East Asia countries such as Malaysia & Indonesia.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/india-has-to-pay-high-price-to-be-usa.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/03/indias-economic-growth-rises-to-72-with.html

Trade wars between USA and EU have started.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-proposed-tariffs-wont-bad-happen-next-220111328.html

EU will impose retaliatory tariffs against the USA soon. Additional tariffs and anti-dumping measures will increase product prices which will lead to global inflation.

Get ready for global inflation in 2018.

Thursday, March 1, 2018

India's economic growth rises to 7.2% with heavy deficits.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/india-s-economic-growth-rises-to-7-2--10000484

If you just look at India's economic growth, it looks fantastic but if you delve deeper, the growth becomes a conundrum.

Quarterly economic growth: 7.2%

However, India has a fiscal deficit of about 114% which means that the government borrows heavily for the huge revenue-expenditure gap.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/april-january-fiscal-deficit-at-113-7-of-fy18-target/articleshow/63109904.cms

India also has a trade deficit of USD$16.3b in January 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/balance-of-trade

Last but not least, India will have a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2018.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/india-budget-fiscal-deficit-tax-rural-measures.html

The 3 deficits show that the so-called economic growth is not getting enough revenues for the government which results in heavy government borrowings.

Since GDP = G+I+C+ Net exports(X-M), India is propping up its economic growth with heavy government spendings through borrowings. In other words, foreign direct investments, local consumptions and net exports are not generating enough revenues for India.

In conclusion, India's economic growth is dubious and dicey.