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Thursday, March 1, 2018

India's economic growth rises to 7.2% with heavy deficits.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/india-s-economic-growth-rises-to-7-2--10000484

If you just look at India's economic growth, it looks fantastic but if you delve deeper, the growth becomes a conundrum.

Quarterly economic growth: 7.2%

However, India has a fiscal deficit of about 114% which means that the government borrows heavily for the huge revenue-expenditure gap.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/april-january-fiscal-deficit-at-113-7-of-fy18-target/articleshow/63109904.cms

India also has a trade deficit of USD$16.3b in January 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/balance-of-trade

Last but not least, India will have a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2018.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/india-budget-fiscal-deficit-tax-rural-measures.html

The 3 deficits show that the so-called economic growth is not getting enough revenues for the government which results in heavy government borrowings.

Since GDP = G+I+C+ Net exports(X-M), India is propping up its economic growth with heavy government spendings through borrowings.  In other words, foreign direct investments, local consumptions and net exports are not generating enough revenues for India.

In conclusion, India's economic growth is dubious and dicey.

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