Singapore Nodx contracted 11.7% in March 2019.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-march-exports-post-worst-fall-in-2-years-11452728

Year on year changes (YOY):

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-nodx-gained-49-in-february.html

China is a consuming economy, not an exporting economy anymore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-economic-growth-steady-amid-021015173.html

China is able to boost its GDP by increasing its local consumption with stimulus measures.

Therefore, a US-China trade war has limited impact on China but significant impacts in other exporting countries.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

Japan's slowdown continues.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-exports-slump-weak-china-demand-heaping-pressure-010749155--finance.html

Japan's slowdown is impacted by China.  We had posted this recently.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

China is right to ban ractopamine for health safety.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-eyes-u-poultry-pork-170054363.html

The US is trying to make China lift the ractopamine ban but China won't accede to the request because it is a health hazard.

The US uses ractopamine for its pork and beef exports.  This is also the reason I avoid US pork and beef in Singapore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/11/what-do-you-get-for-being-staunch-usa.html

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.55	0.61	Hold
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.565	0.61	Buy
04/04/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.59	0.72	Buy

A-Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.57	2.9	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.57	2.78	Accumulate
01/17/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.74	2.95	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.71	3.01	Buy
01/31/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.72	2.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.34x FY19
01/31/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.72	2.83	Add	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	A-Reit	2.72	2.64	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	2.72	2.95	Buy
02/15/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.75	2.88	Accumulate
02/28/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.81	2.95	Buy
03/07/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.83	2.9	Neutral	DDM
03/07/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.83	2.83	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.93	3.1	Buy

800Super - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	Phillip	800Super	0.685	0	Cease Coverage	DCF

Stock calls for 16 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/16/19	CLSA	Best World	1.77	1.75	Sell	Up from $1.29
04/16/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.63	2.63	Hold	DCF
04/16/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.64	Buy
04/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	0	Hold
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.48	0.58	Buy	DDM
04/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.06	0.95	Sell	DCF
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.36	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

Mahathir is deceiving his Malaysians. - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mahathir-says-chinese-contractor-help-043007017.html

The ECRL cost was inflated by Najib previously because he wanted to sift off the funding.  Mahathir is able to cut Najib and his cronies off the funding by cutting the ECRL distance and reducing the land acquisition cost.  The "new" ECRL will not go through Gombak now and the land acquisition cost is greatly reduced.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/mahathir-is-deceiving-its-malaysians.html

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/east-coast-rail-link-proceed-malaysia-china-slash-costs-11438428

Yuuzoo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/20/18	Lim & Tan	Yuuzoo	0.038	0	Sell/Avoid

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.335	0.53	Add	PB0.8x FY18
02/02/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.35	0.53	Add	PB0.8x FY18
03/02/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.3	0.57	Add	PB0.8x FY19
04/10/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.29	0.57	Add	PB0.8x FY19
05/16/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.31	0.56	Add	PB0.8x FY19
08/15/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.255	0.45	Add	PB0.8x FY19
11/05/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.45	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/04/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.4	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.41	Add	PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19

Yoma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.54	0.55	Hold
02/07/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.48	0.55	Buy
03/07/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.42	0.51	Buy	Sum of parts
03/07/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.42	0.75	Buy
05/03/18	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.43	0.66	Buy	Sum of parts (15% discount)
05/31/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.4	0.58	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
06/29/18	CIMB	Yoma	0.365	0.62	Not Rated	Bloomberg consensus
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.35	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)
12/27/18	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.33	0.57	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.345	0.4	Buy
04/11/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.32	0.57	Add	Sum of parts (20% discount)

Stock calls for 15 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.5x
04/15/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.62	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.31	5.8	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.49	2.85	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.82	4.25	Buy

World economic outlook growth projection by IMF.

2019 will be a bad year for the global economies as projected by IMF.

EU has drafted EU$20B tariffs for the US!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-eu-draws-list-20-150936044.html

In a tit-for-tat move, the EU has drafted EU$20B tariffs for the US.

How can the global economies be good when the US is starting trade wars against China and the EU?

Many countries are fearful of the upcoming US-China trade deal.

Why are many countries fearful of the upcoming US-China trade deal?

Well, many countries are worried that the upcoming US-China trade deal will give preferential access to US companies and undercut other non-US MNCs.  These other countries are also worried that China will cut back on their exports since China is compelled to buy more US goods.  If China is committed to the new US-China trade deal, it will have to replace other imports with US imports.  Who will be badly affected then?  It will be those US allies that stupidly supported the US.  Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc will be badly affected by the new US-China trade deal because China will replace theirs with US imports.

Therefore, we must not think that the US-China trade war doesn't affect us.  It will affect us either directly or indirectly.

Baltic dry index - 726

Today, Friday, April 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2 points, reaching 726 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 1022

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The slowdown in China's imports will affect global economies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/china-march-exports-rebound-to-five-month-high-but-imports-fall-more-than-expected-idUSKCN1RO0Q7

China's exports are growing but imports are shrinking very sharply.  This doesn't bode well for the global economies particularly for export-oriented countries like Singapore.

China's consumption constitutes close to 80% of its GDP and China is no longer an export-oriented country.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2018/0919/c90000-9501725.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/china-slowdown-is-bane-for-world.html

Therefore, any reduction in local consumption has a significant impact on China and the world as China contributes 1/3 of global growth.

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	Citibank	Yanlord	1.72	1.75	Neutral	RNAV (50% discount)
05/21/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.67	2.27	Buy	PER6x FY18
06/06/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.7	2.24	Buy	PER6x
08/16/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.51	2.13	Buy	PER5.5x
08/20/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.48	2.17	Buy	PER5.5x FY18/19
11/14/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.28	2.13	Buy
11/21/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.26	2.04	Buy	PEG
11/30/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.3	1.62	Buy	PER4.7x FY19
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
04/12/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.47	1.75	Buy