Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.81	29.46	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.75	0.9	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.87	1	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.99	28.97	Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html

We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.645	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.65	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	2.8	3.1	Buy
03/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.88	3.25	Buy	DDM
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy

Stock calls for 14 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/14/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.5	1.38	Hold
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
06/14/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.35	3.5	Add	Sum of parts
06/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.885	1.7	Buy

The true picture of US economy.

We will use the economic process to analyze the US GDP situation.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

CPI: Stagnant ( This showed that there is no overwhelming demand to support the US economy and the inventory rundown must continue to allow CPI to increase.  Thus, there is a supply issue in the US which means that weak economic growth is expected in the future.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/consumer-price-index-may-2019.html

As the US uses interest rates to manage inflation, we will use the 3m-10y yield spread to gauge the situation.  This is not applicable to Singapore because we use the currency exchange rate to manage our inflation.

3-month Libor vs US 10-year yield spread:

The 10-year yield is below the 3-month Libor now which depicts a death cross occurrence (negative signal for technical analysis).  Fundamentally speaking, this means there is a shortage of money supply which will curb business investments with the ensuing outcome of slower economic growth.

The US PMI has declined in May 2019.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

The decline in May inventories under the PMI corroborated the aforesaid CPI situation whereby the continual inventories rundown must persist for CPI to rise since there is no overwhelming demand to deplete the inventories.  Without the rundown, the CPI cannot rise to kickstart the change in the economic process.

With the weaknesses in CPI, 3m-10y yield spread and PMI, the next US GDP figure will be weak!

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 13 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.05	2.16	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	24.7	30.5	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.29	Buy
06/13/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.72	1.01	Add
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.675	0.95	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.8	14.62	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.32	3.58	Buy	DCF
06/13/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.32	3.48	Hold	Sum of parts
06/13/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	4.09	4.38	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.09	4.7	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.41	3.9	Buy

Huawei is evoking its patent rights now. Yeah!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-asks-verizon-pay-over-160423853.html

We've stated before that many companies would be infringing Huawei's patents if they want to build 5G technology.  Huawei is evoking its patent rights now in the face of the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/huawei-won-fight-in-europe-against-us.html

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.41	4	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.35	Sell
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.65	Buy
06/12/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaRetail China	1.53	0	Hold
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.55	2.77	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.645	0.67	Hold
06/12/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.625	0.82	Buy	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	IHH Healthcare	1.84	2.09	Add	Ringgit $6.37 target price
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold
06/12/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.04	6.1	Buy	DCF

President Trump threatens President Xi before G20 Summit.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/11/politics/trump-xi-g20-tariffs-intl-hnk/index.html

It is a stupid move to threaten another big country President.  There won't be a trade deal in the G20 Summit because this will make President Xi look weak.

China has responded with Trump's threat.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-respond-u-insists-073106816.html