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Friday, March 13, 2020

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/21/19OCBCShangri-La Asia11.0416.4Buy
03/22/19OCBCShangri-La Asia11.1816.16Buy
08/26/19OCBCShangri-La Asia8.313.9Buy

SGX - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/04/19phillipSGX7.159.01Buy
01/25/19CIMBSGX7.57.9AddPER22.1x FY20
01/25/19DMG & PartnersSGX7.58.2BuyPER22x FY20
01/28/19phillipSGX7.578.36BuyPER23.2x FY19
01/28/19OCBCSGX7.577.98BuyPER22x F19/20
02/22/19CitibankSGX7.877.8Hold
03/12/19CitibankSGX7.467Sell
03/12/19Credit SuisseSGX7.466.6Underperform
03/14/19DBS VickersSGX7.267.05HoldDDM, PER20x CY20
03/19/19phillipSGX7.318.17AccumulatePER23.2x
04/05/19DMG & PartnersSGX7.428.1BuyPER23x FY20
04/05/19Credit SuisseSGX7.426.8Underperform
04/26/19OCBCSGX7.267.6HoldPER21x FY20
04/26/19DBS VickersSGX7.267.05HoldDDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19Kim EngSGX7.268.79BuyPER23x FY19
04/29/19phillipSGX7.48.09AccumulatePER21.4x
04/29/19CIMBSGX7.47.9AddPER22.1x FY20
06/28/19DBS VickersSGX7.957.05HoldDDM, PER20x FY20
07/15/19phillipSGX7.998.09AccumulatePER21.4x
07/15/19Credit SuisseSGX7.997.1Underperform
08/01/19DMG & PartnersSGX7.928.1NeutralPER23x FY20
08/01/19DBS VickersSGX7.928.3BuyDDM
08/02/19phillipSGX7.788.09AccumulatePER21x
08/05/19CIMBSGX7.988.1HoldPER21.5x
10/02/19phillipSGX8.58.6AccumulatePER22x
10/02/19OCBCSGX8.57.6Hold
10/09/19DMG & PartnersSGX8.48.1NeutralPER23x FY20
10/09/19Credit SuisseSGX8.47.2Underperform
10/25/19DMG & PartnersSGX8.288.3NeutralPER23x FY20
10/25/19CIMBSGX8.289AddPER22.4x FY20
10/25/19OCBCSGX8.288.6HoldPER22x FY20
10/25/19DBS VickersSGX8.288.9BuyDDM, PER21x FY20
11/25/19phillipSGX8.978.6NeutralPER22x
11/25/19Credit SuisseSGX8.977.7Underperform
01/02/20DMG & PartnersSGX8.868.8NeutralPER23x FY21
01/24/20DBS VickersSGX8.829.6BuyDDM, PER21x FY21
01/31/20phillipSGX8.78.52NeutralPER21.5x
02/19/20MacquarieSGX9.1510Outperform
03/05/20MacquarieSGX9.0510Outperform
03/05/20CIMBSGX9.059.4Add
03/13/20Credit SuisseSGX8.698.7Neutral

Stock calls for 13 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/13/20PhillipA-Reit3.153.31Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipART11.53Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipCapitaCommercial1.832.18Neutral
03/13/20PhillipCapitamall Trust2.251.7Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipCapitaRetail China1.31.66Accumulate
03/13/20DMG & PartnersDBS20.221.5NeutralGGM, PB1.09x FY20
03/13/20PhillipFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.733.11Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipIreit0.7150.89Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.142.06Accumulate
03/13/20PhillipMapletree Industrial2.772.03Neutral
03/13/20Credit SuisseSGX8.698.7Neutral
03/13/20CIMBSIA7.348HoldPB0.86x
03/13/20CIMBStarhub1.431.8AddDCF
03/13/20DBS VickersStarhub1.431.72BuyDCF

US economic forecast in 2020 and the repercussion.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jp-morgan-forecasts-a-us-recession-for-2020-202003130315

JP Morgan forecasts US GDP to shrink to -2% in Q1 and -3% in Q2 respectively.

Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 eps growth to shrink in Q1, Q2 & Q3.


However, the most important news is that covid-19 is 10x more lethal than US flu.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

Trump had stated that the US flu killed 37,000 people in the US in 2019. A top US health official has stated that covid-19 is 10x more lethal than the US flu.  If covid-19 is 10x more lethal, that will mean this virus will kill 370,000 people in the US.  This outbreak has just begun.


The US death toll is just 41 now as we speak.  Therefore, there will be a lot more deaths to come.

Canadian PM's wife contracted covid-19.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-canada-pm-trudeau-wife-sophie-positive-covid-19-12534098

I believe the Canadian PM will contract the virus from his wife because they live together.

The BIG question is when will Trump be tested positive for covid-19 because this news will rattle the stock markets as he is an old man.

Trump has a high chance of getting the virus because he attended a conference with an infected person before.

Japan and Russia alleged that covid-19 originated in the US. - Part 3

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/12/WS5e6a15dfa31012821727e9d8.html

The CDC hearing has presented the truth in Japan and Russia's allegations.

The covid-19 virus was discovered in many corpses posthumously which were previously certified death by the US flu.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/japan-and-russia-alleged-that-covid-19.html

Let's recap:
1. Japan alleged that the virus originated in the US by analyzing big data.
2. China scientists traced covid-19 H38 to the US.
3. Russia alleged that the virus originated in the US.
4. The chronological events in 2019 also inferred that the US was involved.
5. CDC hearing acknowledged that covid-19 virus was found in corpses thought to have died from US flu.

This recession will be different from past financial recessions. Why?

This recession will be different from past financial recessions because this recession is caused by a pandemic instead of a financial blowout.

The governments have to deal with a virus outbreak and an ensuing economic crisis from the outbreak.  Furthermore, we cannot find a pocket of growth in the world now compared to the past.  Where is the area of growth?

Europe? Recession!
USA? Recession!
China? Recession!
ASEAN? Recession!
Middle East? Recession!

In the 2008 financial crisis, China pulled the world out of recession when the US housing crisis decimated the world.

In 2020, the pandemic decimates the world leaving no region unscathed.  Furthermore, global debt has reached US$260T which is a record high.  We cannot continue to pile up our debts without repercussions.  The day of reckoning will come one day.  Even if it doesn't come today, it will come tomorrow.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-debt-iif/global-debt-shattering-records-iif-idUSKBN1ZC1VQ

Therefore, it will be much harder to pull the world out of recession this time.