https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists/coronavirus-may-have-reached-italy-from-germany-scientists-say-idUSKBN20Y35B
Italy had found its patient zero who was from Germany. This patient zero visited Hawaii prior to his arrival in Italy and he started to spread the virus in Italy.
Hawaii is an isolated island and yet this patient contracted the virus. This has led scientists to speculate that covid-19 has been around in the US prior to the outbreak in China.
It is easy to determine the virus origin by analyzing the genome sequence but scientists are not doing it. Why? They're afraid to determine that this virus doesn't originate in China because the truth will offend the USA government.
The situation in Italy is really serious because Italy is abandoning the sick old people now. About 23% of Italy population consists of people 65 & above and Italy is reserving the medical supplies and facilities to treat the younger patients. The old people are feeling betrayed by their government after contributing to Italy in their younger days and yet they're being abandoned now.
The Italian government is abandoning sick old people because of limited medical supplies and healthcare. Furthermore, Italy has limited financial resources to support their retirements. If the older population is greatly reduced, this will reduce the financial stresses in the country as the government doesn't need to waste money on them.
It is really heartwrenching to see a government behaving like this.
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Baltic dry index - 631
Today, Wednesday, March 11 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 4 points, reaching 631 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
==========================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
The US markets just had a dead-cat bounce. Why?
Why did I say that the US markets just had a dead-cat bounce?
This is because the US government is doing the wrong thing by pumping money into the wrong sector which is the financial system instead of the medical sector.
When you have a terrorism problem, you should increase your military budget to buy better weapons and provide better training to your military and police forces to deal with the terrorists. Pumping money into the financial system won't resolve your terrorism problem.
When you have a financial crisis, you should increase your financial budget to provide liquidity to your financial system. No government will pump money into the military or medical sector to resolve a financial crisis.
When you have a healthcare crisis, you should increase your medical budget to provide free covid-19 medical supplies such as free masks, free sanitizers, free covid-19 testing kits, and free covid-19 testings. Furthermore, free covid-19 treatments must be provided to infected patients so that they will be more willing to come forward to seek treatments to avoid spreading the virus to other people. The government must also increase hospital beds and build temporary quarantine centres to house infected patients from spreading the virus.
All these measures will cost billions and these billions will be much better used in the medical sector than the financial sector. A covid-19 testing costs US$1400 per time in the US and a patient may need to be tested a few times to confirm being virus-free.
Insofar, FED has pumped US$1.5T into the financial markets but the US stock markets are still on a downward trajectory. Why?
This is because the US government is not doing the right thing which is the reason that I'm saying this rebound is a dead-cat bounce.
Is this the time to buy? My answer is a resounding No and I think there will still be more downsides because the US government is not doing the right thing. There is no way a stock market will recover when the infection rate and death toll are rising.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html
The US medical professionals are singing a different tune from the US government.
According to Trump, 37,000 people died from the US flu in 2019. The covid-19 is 10x more lethal than the US flu as stated by a US top health official. Therefore, the average death toll per season should be 9250 for flu and 92,500 for covid-19. The US death toll is just 50 now and the US still has a lot of room to go up.
This is because the US government is doing the wrong thing by pumping money into the wrong sector which is the financial system instead of the medical sector.
When you have a terrorism problem, you should increase your military budget to buy better weapons and provide better training to your military and police forces to deal with the terrorists. Pumping money into the financial system won't resolve your terrorism problem.
When you have a financial crisis, you should increase your financial budget to provide liquidity to your financial system. No government will pump money into the military or medical sector to resolve a financial crisis.
When you have a healthcare crisis, you should increase your medical budget to provide free covid-19 medical supplies such as free masks, free sanitizers, free covid-19 testing kits, and free covid-19 testings. Furthermore, free covid-19 treatments must be provided to infected patients so that they will be more willing to come forward to seek treatments to avoid spreading the virus to other people. The government must also increase hospital beds and build temporary quarantine centres to house infected patients from spreading the virus.
All these measures will cost billions and these billions will be much better used in the medical sector than the financial sector. A covid-19 testing costs US$1400 per time in the US and a patient may need to be tested a few times to confirm being virus-free.
Insofar, FED has pumped US$1.5T into the financial markets but the US stock markets are still on a downward trajectory. Why?
This is because the US government is not doing the right thing which is the reason that I'm saying this rebound is a dead-cat bounce.
Is this the time to buy? My answer is a resounding No and I think there will still be more downsides because the US government is not doing the right thing. There is no way a stock market will recover when the infection rate and death toll are rising.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html
According to Trump, 37,000 people died from the US flu in 2019. The covid-19 is 10x more lethal than the US flu as stated by a US top health official. Therefore, the average death toll per season should be 9250 for flu and 92,500 for covid-19. The US death toll is just 50 now and the US still has a lot of room to go up.
No US monetary and fiscal policy can save the US stock markets. - Part 2
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/no-us-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-can.html
We told you previously that FED was short of USD and the NY Fed injected billions into the FED.
We told you previously that massive credit rating downgrades were coming and S&P warned that it would downgrade oil & gas companies.
We told you earlier that bond investors were cashing out of the US treasury market and FED rushed in to buy the US treasurys.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/the-fed-details-moves-to-buy-treasurys-across-all-durations-starting-with-30-year-bond.html
We are doing our best to tell you the symptoms of financial stresses so that you won't be bludgeoned in the market. I don't know what else I will tell you since I'm monitoring the developments closely but you really need to take note of what I tell you.
We told you previously that FED was short of USD and the NY Fed injected billions into the FED.
We told you previously that massive credit rating downgrades were coming and S&P warned that it would downgrade oil & gas companies.
We told you earlier that bond investors were cashing out of the US treasury market and FED rushed in to buy the US treasurys.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/the-fed-details-moves-to-buy-treasurys-across-all-durations-starting-with-30-year-bond.html
We are doing our best to tell you the symptoms of financial stresses so that you won't be bludgeoned in the market. I don't know what else I will tell you since I'm monitoring the developments closely but you really need to take note of what I tell you.
Friday, March 13, 2020
Sheng Siong - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.06 | 1.27 | Buy | |
| 01/04/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.07 | 1.13 | Accumulate | |
| 02/20/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sheng Siong | 1.08 | 1.15 | Hold | |
| 02/27/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.25 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/27/19 | OCBC | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.19 | Buy | |
| 02/27/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.25 | Buy | PER25x FY19 |
| 02/27/19 | CIMB | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.22 | Add | PER22.2x FY20 |
| 02/27/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.11 | Hold | |
| 03/04/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.3 | Accumulate | PER25x |
| 03/05/19 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 1.24 | Buy | |
| 03/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.08 | 1.25 | Buy | DCF |
| 03/19/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.08 | 0.95 | Sell | DCF, PER19.5x FY19 |
| 04/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.25 | Buy | |
| 04/16/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.06 | 0.95 | Sell | DCF |
| 04/29/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.11 | Hold | Buy @ $1 |
| 04/29/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.25 | Buy | PER5x FY19 |
| 04/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.23 | Buy | DCF & PER21x |
| 04/30/19 | CIMB | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.1 | Hold | PER20.5x CY20 |
| 04/30/19 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.24 | Buy | DCF |
| 04/30/19 | OCBC | Sheng Siong | 1.04 | 1.19 | Buy | |
| 05/02/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.03 | 1.3 | Buy | PER25x |
| 06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.1 | 1.23 | Buy | |
| 06/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.1 | 1.25 | Buy | |
| 06/14/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 0.95 | Sell | DCF |
| 07/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.1 | 1.23 | Buy | |
| 07/15/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.1 | 1.3 | Buy | PER25x |
| 07/16/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.09 | 0.95 | Sell | DCF |
| 07/30/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.11 | 1.32 | Buy | DCF |
| 07/30/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.11 | 1.32 | Buy | PER25x FY20 |
| 07/31/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.15 | 0.96 | Sell | DCF |
| 07/31/19 | OCBC | Sheng Siong | 1.15 | 1.19 | Buy | |
| 07/31/19 | CIMB | Sheng Siong | 1.15 | 1.25 | Add | |
| 08/01/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.3 | Accumulate | PER25x FY19 |
| 08/06/19 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.27 | Outperform | |
| 08/13/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.18 | 0.96 | Sell | DCF |
| 08/23/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 09/11/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.2 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 10/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.11 | 1.32 | Buy | PER25x FY20 |
| 10/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.13 | 1.32 | Buy | DCF |
| 10/11/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.3 | Accumulate | |
| 10/14/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.15 | 0.96 | Sell | DCF |
| 11/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sheng Siong | 1.17 | 1.27 | Hold | Buy @ $1.14 |
| 11/01/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.17 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 11/01/19 | Kim Eng | Sheng Siong | 1.17 | 1 | Sell | DCF |
| 11/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.17 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 11/04/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.18 | 1.32 | Accumulate | PER25x |
| 11/04/19 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.18 | 1.35 | Outperform | |
| 11/04/19 | CIMB | Sheng Siong | 1.18 | 1.3 | Add | PER22.5x CY20 |
| 11/04/19 | OCBC | Sheng Siong | 1.18 | 1.21 | Hold | |
| 12/10/19 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.24 | 1.39 | Buy | DCF |
| 01/06/20 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.3 | 1.32 | Buy | |
| 01/08/20 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.26 | 1.39 | Buy | |
| 01/13/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Sheng Siong | 1.27 | 1.29 | Hold | Buy @ $1.19 |
| 01/23/20 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.26 | 1.41 | Buy | PER25x FY20 |
| 02/19/20 | CIMB | Sheng Siong | 1.29 | 1.46 | Add | PER24x |
| 02/24/20 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.29 | 1.41 | Accumulate | PER25x FY20 |
| 02/24/20 | DMG & Partners | Sheng Siong | 1.29 | 1.42 | Buy | DCF & PER22x |
| 02/24/20 | DBS Vickers | Sheng Siong | 1.29 | 1.45 | Buy | PER25x FY20 |
| 02/25/20 | OCBC | Sheng Siong | 1.29 | 1.45 | Buy | |
| 03/10/20 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.21 | 1.4 | Outperform |
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