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Saturday, March 14, 2020

The US markets just had a dead-cat bounce. Why?

Why did I say that the US markets just had a dead-cat bounce?

This is because the US government is doing the wrong thing by pumping money into the wrong sector which is the financial system instead of the medical sector.

When you have a terrorism problem, you should increase your military budget to buy better weapons and provide better training to your military and police forces to deal with the terrorists.  Pumping money into the financial system won't resolve your terrorism problem.

When you have a financial crisis, you should increase your financial budget to provide liquidity to your financial system. No government will pump money into the military or medical sector to resolve a financial crisis.

When you have a healthcare crisis, you should increase your medical budget to provide free covid-19 medical supplies such as free masks, free sanitizers, free covid-19 testing kits, and free covid-19 testings.  Furthermore, free covid-19 treatments must be provided to infected patients so that they will be more willing to come forward to seek treatments to avoid spreading the virus to other people.  The government must also increase hospital beds and build temporary quarantine centres to house infected patients from spreading the virus.

All these measures will cost billions and these billions will be much better used in the medical sector than the financial sector.  A covid-19 testing costs US$1400 per time in the US and a patient may need to be tested a few times to confirm being virus-free.

Insofar, FED has pumped US$1.5T into the financial markets but the US stock markets are still on a downward trajectory.  Why?

This is because the US government is not doing the right thing which is the reason that I'm saying this rebound is a dead-cat bounce.

Is this the time to buy?  My answer is a resounding No and I think there will still be more downsides because the US government is not doing the right thing.  There is no way a stock market will recover when the infection rate and death toll are rising.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html

The US medical professionals are singing a different tune from the US government.

According to Trump, 37,000 people died from the US flu in 2019.  The covid-19 is 10x more lethal than the US flu as stated by a US top health official.  Therefore, the average death toll per season should be 9250 for flu and 92,500 for covid-19.  The US death toll is just 50 now and the US still has a lot of room to go up.

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