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Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Stock calls for 22 July 20

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/22/20DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.3250.33NeutralSum of parts
07/22/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.752.57NeutralDDM, Up from $2.31
07/22/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.752.8HoldDCF
07/22/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit2.752.88HoldDDM
07/22/20Lim & TanKeppel DC Reit2.750Hold
07/22/20OCBCKeppel DC Reit2.752.86Hold
07/22/20Lim & TanMapletree Industrial2.970Hold
07/22/20OCBCMapletree Industrial2.973.25Buy
07/22/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics2.052.08HoldBuy @ $1.88
07/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics2.052.2Buy
07/22/20Kim EngMapletree Logistics2.052.55Buy
07/22/20CIMBMapletree Logistics2.051.89Hold
07/22/20DBS VickersOCBC9.219.3HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21
07/22/20UOB Kay HianRex0.1880.3BuySum of parts
07/22/20Kim EngTop Glove8.249.32BuyRinggit target $28.60, PER16x
07/22/20AmfrasersUMS0.9750.89NeutralPER12x
07/22/20DBS VickersUOB20.720.9HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 5

https://www.oliverwyman.com/media-center/2020/jul/european-banks-facing-over-400-billion-euro-in-credit-losses-in-the-next-three-years.html

This is just the beginning.  The US banks also face the same imploding debts situation.

Let's recap again.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_20.html

The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.

  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)
  • EU approves EUR$1.85T pandemic recovery fund.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/eu-leaders-reach-a-breakthrough-on-the-regions-recovery-fund.html

    With this latest EUR$1.85T pandemic recovery fund and TLTRO III at an interest rate of as low as -1%, the EU is printing a massive amount of free monies to reboot its economy and creating the biggest stock market bubble.  Likewise, the US is also doing exactly the same thing.

    The excessive monetary policies in the world are seeding a big financial crisis now.


    Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 4

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/suze-orman-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-and-it-is-worse-than-2008.html?&qsearchterm=financial%20storm%20is%20brewing

    A US parody of our prediction below! Hahaha!

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_20.html

    We did our first posting on 15 July about the impending financial tsunami.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html

    Tuesday, July 21, 2020

    A warmer climate will energize a typhoon.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/weather/july-4th-weather-forecast/index.html

    Do you know where a typhoon draws its energy from? It is the heat that energizes a storm/typhoon.

    The US is in a typhoon season now and its temperature is rising.

    I suspect the hurricane and typhoon season will be much stronger than the past for this year.  We've seen severe floodings in China, Japan and India now and this will also be reflected in the US because of global warming.

    First Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/13/19CIMBFirst Reit1.061.23Add
    11/07/19CIMBFirst Reit1.051.2AddDDM
    01/30/20Lim & TanFirst Reit0.9950Buy on weakness
    01/31/20CIMBFirst Reit1.021.15AddDDM

    Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/22/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.6850.82BuyDDM
    07/31/19OCBCFar East Hospitality0.6850.67Hold
    07/31/19CIMBFar East Hospitality0.6850.68Hold
    08/01/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.680.7HoldDCF
    08/27/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.650.82Buy
    09/19/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.6750.8Buy
    10/09/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.690.7Hold
    10/30/19Lim & TanFar East Hospitality0.70Hold
    10/31/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.710.86BuyDCF
    10/31/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.710.8Buy
    11/01/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.730.8BuyDDM
    11/04/19CIMBFar East Hospitality0.7350.7Hold
    11/04/19OCBCFar East Hospitality0.7350.68Hold
    11/21/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.720.8Buy
    12/19/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.720.8Buy
    01/14/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.7550.8Buy
    02/03/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.680.69HoldPB0.85x
    02/13/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.670.64HoldDDM
    02/17/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.660.65Sell
    02/17/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldBuy @ $0.60
    02/17/20Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.660.7HoldDDM
    02/17/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldDDM
    02/19/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.670.65Hold
    03/16/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.530.52Hold
    03/20/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.3750.5BuyDDM
    04/21/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.490.6Buy
    05/05/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.490.62BuyDDM
    06/01/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.4950.6Buy
    06/08/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.5450.62Buy
    06/09/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.570.59Add
    07/02/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.50.62Buy
    07/21/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.490.592Add

    ESR-Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCodeCompanyLastTargetCallPercentValuation
    07/24/19OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.5350.58Buy8.41
    07/24/19CIMBJ91UESR-Reit0.5350.61Add14.02DDM
    08/21/19CitibankJ91UESR-Reit0.510.57Buy11.76
    10/25/19OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.540.58Buy7.41
    10/29/19DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.530.6Buy13.21DDM
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09
    01/07/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09DDM
    01/24/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.560.59Buy5.36DCF
    01/28/20OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.560.6Buy7.14
    01/30/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.5550.48Hold-13.51DCF
    02/25/20OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09
    03/02/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.530.59Buy11.32DCF
    03/19/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.3050.5Buy63.93DDM
    04/07/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.2450.5Buy104.08
    04/24/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.3350.43Buy28.36DCF
    07/17/20CIMBJ91UESR-Reit0.390.492Add26.15DDM
    07/17/20Lim & TanJ91UESR-Reit0.390Accept Offer-100.00
    07/17/20CLSAJ91UESR-Reit0.390.47Buy20.51
    07/17/20SoochowJ91UESR-Reit0.390.47Buy20.51
    07/17/20MorningstarJ91UESR-Reit0.390.42Stable7.69
    07/17/20DaiwaJ91UESR-Reit0.390.42Hold7.69

    Stock calls for 21 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/21/20CIMBART0.9551.06Add
    07/21/20CIMBCDL Hospitality0.991.2Add
    07/21/20JefferiesDBS21.2924.5Buy
    07/21/20Kim EngDBS21.2922.1Buy
    07/21/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.490.592Add
    07/21/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.091.1NeutralDDM
    07/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.090Buy
    07/21/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.091.2Add
    07/21/20UOB Kay HianManulife US Reit0.70.85BuyDDM
    07/21/20OCBCMapletree Logistics2.042.07Hold
    07/21/20Lim & TanMapletree Logistics2.040Hold
    07/21/20JefferiesOCBC9.188.88Hold
    07/21/20Kim EngOCBC9.189.15Hold
    07/21/20OCBCSIA Engineering1.971.8Sell
    07/21/20UOB Kay HianTop Glove8.157.14BuyRinggit target $21.90
    07/21/20JefferiesUOB20.5522Buy
    07/21/20Kim EngUOB20.5522.42Buy

    Monday, July 20, 2020

    Elite ComReit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    05/26/20UOB Kay HianElite ComReit0.660.88BuyDDM
    06/30/20CIMBElite ComReit0.71.3Add

    EC World Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/04/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.780.85Buy
    07/22/19phillipEC World Reit0.7550.87Buy
    08/08/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87BuyDDM
    08/08/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7350.82BuyDDM
    09/24/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87Buy
    10/18/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87Buy
    11/12/19phillipEC World Reit0.740.84BuyDDM
    11/12/19DBS VickersEC World Reit0.740.86BuyDCF
    11/26/19AmfrasersEC World Reit0.740.84outperformDDM
    12/02/19AmfrasersEC World Reit0.7450.84outperformDDM
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7650.82Buy
    03/02/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7050.78BuyDDM
    03/02/20DBS VickersEC World Reit0.7050.8BuyDCF
    03/02/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.7050.82outperform
    03/05/20phillipEC World Reit0.720.827BuyDDM
    04/23/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.630.78Buy
    05/14/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.6750.76BuyDDM
    05/14/20DBS VickersEC World Reit0.6750.8BuyDCF
    05/15/20phillipEC World Reit0.660.77BuyDDM
    05/18/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6750.73outperformDDM
    06/23/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.70.76Buy
    07/13/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6550.73outperformDDM

    Eagle Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/30/19JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.6751Buy
    08/30/19UOB Kay HianEagle Hospitality Trust0.6751.02BuyDDM
    08/30/19UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.6750.83Buy
    10/02/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.680.84outperformDDM
    10/25/19UOB Kay HianEagle Hospitality Trust0.6451.02BuyDDM
    10/29/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5450.72outperformDDM
    11/18/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5350.61BuyDDM
    11/18/19JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.5350.8Buy
    12/02/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5250.61outperformDDM
    02/20/20AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.51Neutral
    02/20/20JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.7Buy
    02/20/20UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.75Buy
    03/10/20AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.280.51Neutral
    03/25/20UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.1370.75Buy

    Stock calls for 20 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/20/20Lim & TanCDL Hospitality1.020Sell
    07/20/20UOB Kay HianDBS21.3824.8Buy
    07/20/20PhillipHyphens Pharma0.420.435AccumlateDCF
    07/20/20PhillipManulife US Reit0.7050.8BuyDDM
    07/20/20phillipPrime US Reit0.7650.88BuyDDM
    07/20/20UOB Kay HianSembcorp Industries1.782.2BuySum of parts
    07/20/20Lim & TanSembcorp Industries1.780Accumlate
    07/20/20CIMBSembcorp Industries1.782.27Add
    07/20/20CIMBSIA Engineering1.961.78Hold
    07/20/20DBS VickersSIA Engineering1.962.1HoldSum of parts (15% premium)

    The southern hemisphere must brace for a possible major covid outbreak from June to August 2020. Why? - Part 5

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for.html

    Omg! South Africa has leaped to no.5 from no.13 in just 10 days!


    When we give a warning, you better watch out because we're seldom wrong!

    We are different from SUTD because we can analyze better.

    Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 3

    Many financial firms such as investment banks had just announced their latest earnings.  However, there is one thing that truly concerns me about their earnings.  Many financial firms had good earnings because of their fixed income trading (a.k.a bond trading).  This bond trading income was just an ad hoc profitability because the FED reduced the interest rate to zero.  Since the bond price moves inversely to its interest yield, the bond price will move up when the FED reduces the interest rate which in turn enables the financial firms to take advantage of the phenomenon which cannot be repeated.  The FED had stated clearly that it won't consider negative rates policy.  Therefore, this bond trading profitability is unsustainable unless the FED adopts a negative interest rate policy.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/what-will-us-fed-do-after-rejecting.html

    Financial firms' earnings news:

    https://www.marketscreener.com/BLACKROCK-INC-11862/news/BlackRock-Q2-2020-Earnings-Release-30942082/

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-q2-2020.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-q2-2020.html


    The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.


  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)

  • The US typhoon season is also a big worry as the typhoons will be much stronger this year.  My observations from the floodings in China, Japan and India now have led me to reach this conclusion.  The US insurance firms will be badly hit when the stronger typhoons hit the US.

    Is the die cast in stone? I leave it to you to decide for yourself.


    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html

    Saturday, July 18, 2020

    Baltic dry index - 1710

    * The Baltic dry index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities and reflects rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, rose 11 points, or about 0.6%, to 1,710.

    ====================

    Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

    US rig count - 954


    Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

    Friday, July 17, 2020

    Delfi - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/14/19DMG & PartnersDelfi1.241.68BuyDCF, PER28x FY19
    10/31/19DBS VickersDelfi0.9951.49BuyPER23.7x FY20
    11/13/19DMG & PartnersDelfi0.9551.68BuyDCF
    11/14/19DBS VickersDelfi0.961.51BuyPER23.1x FY20
    12/11/19DMG & PartnersDelfi11.68Buy
    01/06/20DBS VickersDelfi11.51Buy
    02/07/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.961.68BuyDCF
    02/28/20DBS VickersDelfi0.961.55BuyPER23x FY20
    04/27/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.620.74BuyDCF
    05/22/20DBS VickersDelfi0.831.08BuyPER18x FY20/21
    06/05/20AmfrasersDelfi0.770.93outperform
    07/15/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.740.74NeutralDCF

    DBS Bank - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/01/19Kim EngDBS25.9629.46Buy
    07/01/19UOB Kay HianDBS25.9630.5BuyGGM, PB1.59x FY19
    07/02/19OCBCDBS26.629.2BuyGGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
    07/03/19phillipDBS26.529Accumulate
    07/08/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.6330.8BuyPB1.5x FY20
    07/12/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.6130.3BuyPB1.47x FY20
    07/29/19Lim & TanDBS26.880Buy
    07/30/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.5428.3HoldGGM, PB1.37x FY20
    07/30/19CIMBDBS26.5427.59HoldGGM
    07/30/19Kim EngDBS26.5428.05HoldDDM
    07/30/19OCBCDBS26.5428Hold
    07/30/19phillipDBS26.5430.9Accumulate
    07/30/19UOB Kay HianDBS26.5431.3Buy
    07/31/19MacquarieDBS26.4925.8NeutralPB
    07/31/19phillipDBS26.4927.6AccumulateGGM, PB1.4x
    08/23/19DMG & PartnersDBS24.5928.3Neutral
    08/29/19MacquarieDBS24.0225.8NeutralPB
    09/05/19phillipDBS24.5427.6Accumulate
    09/06/19DMG & PartnersDBS24.6325.3NeutralGGM, PB1.23x FY20
    09/26/19Kim EngDBS24.7328.05Hold
    09/26/19JefferiesDBS24.7331Buy
    09/27/19CIMBDBS24.8227.59Hold
    10/01/19UOB Kay HianDBS2531.3Buy
    10/04/19phillipDBS24.5727.6Accumulate
    10/29/19UOB Kay HianDBS25.1829.75Buy
    11/05/19phillipDBS26.1327.6Accumulate
    11/11/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.6125.3NeutralGGM, PB1.23x FY20
    11/11/19Lim & TanDBS26.610Buy on weakness
    11/12/19MacquarieDBS26.6425.8NeutralPB
    11/12/19phillipDBS26.6427.3AccumulateGGM, PB1.4x
    11/12/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.6425.8NeutralGGM, PB1.28x FY20
    11/12/19Kim EngDBS26.6429.92BuyDDM
    11/12/19UOB Kay HianDBS26.6430Buy
    12/02/19CIMBDBS25.2528.29Hold
    12/02/19Kim EngDBS25.2529.92Buy
    12/03/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.1325.8Neutral
    12/04/19phillipDBS24.9827.3Accumulate
    01/03/20UOB Kay HianDBS26.1130Buy
    01/08/20CIMBDBS26.0528.29Add
    01/08/20Kim EngDBS26.0529.92Buy
    01/14/20DMG & PartnersDBS26.125.8NeutralGGM, PB1.28x FY20
    02/07/20UOB Kay HianDBS25.728.65Buy
    02/13/20Lim & TanDBS25.420Buy
    02/14/20CIMBDBS25.4227.09AddGGM
    02/14/20UOB Kay HianDBS25.4228BuyGGM, PB1.39x FY20
    02/14/20DMG & PartnersDBS25.4224.8NeutralGGM, PB1.25x FY20
    02/14/20Kim EngDBS25.4228.6Buy
    02/14/20JefferiesDBS25.4228.5Buy
    02/18/20phillipDBS25.4827.3Accumulate
    02/18/20CitibankDBS25.4826.8Hold
    03/04/20CitibankDBS23.6624.4Hold
    03/05/20CIMBDBS23.9124.33Hold
    03/05/20OCBCDBS23.9125.5HoldGGM, PB1.3x
    03/09/20CitibankDBS2317.5Sell
    03/10/20phillipDBS21.1527.3Accumulate
    03/10/20JefferiesDBS21.1527Buy
    03/13/20DMG & PartnersDBS20.221.5NeutralGGM, PB1.09x FY20
    03/19/20MacquarieDBS17.920.25Neutral
    03/19/20JefferiesDBS17.920Buy
    04/01/20JefferiesDBS18.5720Buy
    04/01/20CitibankDBS18.5717.5Sell
    04/08/20Kim EngDBS19.1121.99Buy
    04/13/20phillipDBS19.1427.3Accumulate
    04/17/20UOB Kay HianDBS19.3822.1Buy
    04/24/20MacquarieDBS18.7418.25Neutral
    04/30/20Lim & TanDBS19.20Buy
    05/01/20DMG & PartnersDBS19.218.7NeutralGGM, PB0.96x FY20
    05/04/20phillipDBS19.9620.59AccumulateGGM, PB1.09x
    05/04/20UOB Kay HianDBS19.9622.3Buy
    05/11/20Kim EngDBS19.722.1Buy
    05/11/20CitibankDBS19.719.65Hold
    06/08/20phillipDBS22.2820.6Neutral
    06/08/20CitibankDBS22.2825.5Buy
    06/10/20Lim & TanDBS22.950Hold
    06/11/20MacquarieDBS23.0126outperformPB
    06/18/20DMG & PartnersDBS21.5718.7Neutral
    06/24/20Kim EngDBS21.1322.1Buy
    07/01/20CIMBDBS20.8518.8Hold
    07/03/20phillipDBS21.2820.6Neutral
    07/06/20UOB Kay HianDBS21.5726.22Buy
    07/14/20MacquarieDBS21.5426outperformPB