Stock calls for 15 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/20	CIMB	Boustead	0.705	1	Add
07/15/20	CIMB	Boustead Projects	0.79	0.88	Add
07/15/20	OCBC	City Developments	8.27	10.74	Buy
07/15/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.74	0.74	Neutral	DCF
07/15/20	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	3.1	3.9	Buy	PER24x FY20
07/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.25	1.41	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $1.20
07/15/20	CIMB	SPH	1.25	1.35	Hold
07/15/20	OCBC	SPH	1.25	1.35	Hold	PER15x

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html

The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.

Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)

Excessive monetary policies

Imploding debts

Covid virus

Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time.

We saw a recession constellation aligning last year and it happened exactly as we projected.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

We see another constellation aligning now but this time will be a big financial crisis due to excessive monetary policies by the central bankers worldwide.  This deceptive market rally will burst ultimately and many retail investors will be burnt this time particularly in the US and China.  The stock markets have completely decoupled from economic reality.

Are we going to be right again? I will let time be the judge and the truth will reveal itself.  Don't worry, you don't need to wait for years for this to happen.

Just remember our motto: We are not always right but we are also seldom wrong.

City Developments - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/15/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.47	10.68	Buy
08/13/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.04	10.68	Buy
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.04	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.04	11	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
08/19/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	9.16	0	Buy
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.9	9.2	Neutral
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.82	11	Buy
10/18/19	Credit Suisse	City Developments	10.39	11.6	Outperform
10/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	10.67	12	Buy
11/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	10.67	12	Buy
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	10.47	10.5	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.78	11	Hold
12/11/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	10.54	0	Buy
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	10.7	10.5	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
12/17/19	CIMB	City Developments	10.8	12.09	Add
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.95	13	Buy	RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
02/26/20	OCBC	City Developments	10.66	12.02	Buy
02/27/20	CIMB	City Developments	10.37	12.09	Add
02/27/20	OCBC	City Developments	10.37	12.01	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
02/27/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.37	13	Buy	RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
02/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	10.17	12.5	Buy
03/03/20	phillip	City Developments	9.74	11.89	Buy	RNAV (30% discount), PB0.98x FY20
05/13/20	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	7.96	9.5	Buy
05/14/20	CIMB	City Developments	7.65	10.13	Add
05/28/20	Lim & Tan	City Developments	7.68	11.2	Buy
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	City Developments	7.67	9.5	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
06/26/20	Morgan Stanley	City Developments	8.32	10.5	Overweight
07/13/20	OCBC	City Developments	8.73	12.01	Buy
07/14/20	DMG & Partners	City Developments	8.37	9.5	Buy

Citic Envirotech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/25/19	DBS Vickers	Citic Envirotech	0.305	0.34	Hold
11/07/19	Lim & Tan	Citic Envirotech	0.37	0.55	Accept Offer	offer price @ $0.55

China Sunsine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/08/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.08	1.43	Buy	FCFE
10/04/19	CIMB	China Sunsine	1.1	1.1	Hold
10/10/19	Amfrasers	China Sunsine	1.12	1.4	Outperform	DCF
11/12/19	Amfrasers	China Sunsine	1.03	1.2	Outperform	DCF
12/02/19	Amfrasers	China Sunsine	1.03	1.2	Outperform	DCF
04/06/20	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.28	0.38	Add	After stock split (1 into 2)

Stock calls for 14 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/14/20	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.385	0.5	Buy
07/14/20	Lim & Tan	ART	0.995	0	Neutral
07/14/20	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	2.87	4	Buy
07/14/20	DMG & Partners	City Developments	8.37	9.5	Buy
07/14/20	Macquarie	DBS	21.54	26	outperform	PB
07/14/20	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.43	Add	DDM
07/14/20	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	6.01	7	Outperform	Sum of parts
07/14/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.235	0.29	Buy
07/14/20	DBS Vickers	SATS	2.78	2.83	Hold	DCF & PER25x FY22
07/14/20	OCBC	SATS	2.78	2.76	Hold
07/14/20	CIMB	SATS	2.78	2.8	Reduce

China has imposed sanction against Lockheed Martin.

https://www.ft.com/content/b79821fb-eb99-4418-8cd3-e7df0c42b5fa

This is just a symbolic gesture with no real bite.  It will be a different thing if China imposes sanctions against companies dealing with Lockheed Martin.  China has to follow what the US is doing to Huawei to strike hard at US firms.

If China does that, then the suppliers have to decide to deal with Lockheed Martin or to give up the whole China market.  The choice is very obvious as Lockheed Martine is just a small customer compared to the whole China market.

China has imposed sanctions against US officials in a tit-for-tat response.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sanctions-u-officials-including-075456201.html

This is an expected response from China.  If the US sanctions against any HK/China bank, China will also do the same.

The US is foolish to engage in such a silly ante just to score some political points at home.

Singapore Q2 GDP growth is a lot worse than Q1.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-shrinks-over-40-000345419.html

The QoQ growth of -41% and YoY growth of -12.6% show that we're right in our projection in March 2020 because Q2 is a lot worse than Q1.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/singapore-gdp-contracts-22-yoy.html

We're not a brilliant clairvoyant but we're just a brilliant analyst.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better sit up straight and listen.

My motto: We're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/16/19	phillip	China Everbright	0.315	0.5	Buy	PER9x
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.199	0.49	Buy	PER7x

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/10/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.3	1.6	Buy
08/08/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.23	1.6	Buy
08/13/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.52	Buy	PER10.5x FY20
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.18	1.85	Buy
09/02/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.15	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts
11/04/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.23	1.55	Buy	Sum of parts
01/21/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.28	1.55	Buy
02/27/20	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	1.16	1.25	Hold	PER8.5x FY21
02/28/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.16	1.65	Buy	PER10x FY20
03/12/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.965	1.3	Buy	Sum of parts
04/22/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.3	Buy	Sum of parts
04/23/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.9x
05/12/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER2.6x FY21 (ex-cash)
06/12/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.14	1.25	Buy	PB0.9x, PER3.5x FY21 (ex-cash)
07/06/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.41	0.43	Neutral	DCF
10/07/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.4	0.43	Neutral	DCF
10/25/19	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.41	0.52	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.42	0.43	Neutral	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.42	0.52	Buy	DCF
12/17/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.435	0.47	Neutral	DCF
01/08/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.44	0.61	Add	DCF
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.445	0.49	Neutral	DCF
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.445	0.53	Buy	DCF
03/18/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.39	0.58	Add	DCF
03/30/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.395	0.41	Hold	DCF
04/13/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.385	0.58	Add
04/22/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.38	0.41	Hold	DCF
04/29/20	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.385	0.41	Neutral	DCF
05/18/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.375	0.42	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 13 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/13/20	OCBC	A-Reit	3.26	3.52	Buy
07/13/20	OCBC	Capitaland	2.91	3.99	Buy
07/13/20	OCBC	City Developments	8.73	12.01	Buy
07/13/20	Amfrasers	EC World Reit	0.655	0.73	outperform	DDM
07/13/20	Kim Eng	Frencken	0.915	1.2	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB1.6x FY20
07/13/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	0.945	1.13	Buy
07/13/20	OCBC	Netlink	0.98	1.1	Buy
07/13/20	phillip	SATS	2.88	1.95	Sell	PB1.35x
07/13/20	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	2.88	2.93	Hold	EV/Invested capital basis
07/13/20	Lim & Tan	SATS	2.88	0	Avoid
07/13/20	OCBC	Singtel	2.51	3.24	Buy
07/13/20	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.35	3.9	Buy

We need regular vaccinations to keep covid away.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/immunity-covid-19-could-lost-163154231.html

This covid virus will change our lives now because our covid immunity is only temporary.  This understanding helps to explain why some people get reinfected and tested positive again.

The biggest winners will be those pharmaceutical companies because they can sell the vaccines periodically as their bread and butter drugs. Grrr!

Baltic dry index - 1810

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 958

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

The oppositions have done pretty well for the 2020 GE because they've taken down 2 GRCs and 1 SMC.

What's more interesting is that the designated PM Heng has very weak support from Singaporeans.

Many SG ministers have over 60% support from Singaporeans except Heng Swee Keat (PM-Designate) and S Iswaran. who have a low 50% support.  Being the designated PM after PM Lee, this is a very bad result compared to PM Lee who has over 70% support.  This shows that many Singaporeans do not have faith in Heng.  Maybe PM Lee should reconsider his choice for the next PM.

Singaporeans have spoken - We don't want a one-party system here!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/no-need-to-vote-indranee-rajah-into-our.html

The oppositions have garnered 2 GRCs and 1 SMC for the 2020 GE.

Thank you to all my viewers who have supported and responded to my calling not to allow a one-party political structure in SG.  We have managed to increase our opposition members to 10 now.  Cheers!

The southern hemisphere must brace for a possible major covid outbreak from June to August 2020. Why? - Part 4

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/09/south-africa-warns-of-coronavirus-storm-as-outbreak-accelerates-across-continent

We've predicted correctly again!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for_24.html

We had stated in April 2020 that there would be a major COVID outbreak in South Africa from June to August 2020.  The COVID statistics have spiked by 24% in a week!

South Africa is moving up the list now.

1/3 (32%) of Americans couldn't pay their housing payments!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8503795/One-American-families-missed-July-housing-payments-amid-coronavirus-crisis.html

We told you before that the US employment data was fudged by the US government.  If the US employment data was true, there wouldn't be so many Americans (32%) who couldn't pay their housing payments.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-latest-us-unemployment-data-is.html

US CMBS is in a precarious situation now! - Part 3

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/coronavirus-sparks-largest-ever-rate-jump-in-us-cmbs-delinquencies-06-07-2020

We warned about US CMBS in May 2020 when we saw that the transaction volume dropped significantly.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

The CMBS delinquencies have spiked tremendously now!

When we tell you something, you better listen.  Another BIG financial crisis is brewing right now!

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.41	0.43	Neutral	DCF
10/07/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.4	0.43	Neutral	DCF
10/25/19	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.41	0.52	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.42	0.43	Neutral	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.42	0.52	Buy	DCF
12/17/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.435	0.47	Neutral	DCF
01/08/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.44	0.61	Add	DCF
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.445	0.49	Neutral	DCF
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.445	0.53	Buy	DCF
03/18/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.39	0.58	Add	DCF
03/30/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.395	0.41	Hold	DCF
04/13/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.385	0.58	Add
04/22/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.38	0.41	Hold	DCF
04/29/20	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.385	0.41	Neutral	DCF
05/18/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.375	0.42	Hold	DCF

CEI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.985	0.9	Hold	PER10x FY20

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.77	Buy
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.65	2.06	Buy
07/31/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.56	Hold
07/31/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.79	Buy	DDM
07/31/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.92	Add
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.8	Buy	DCF
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.58	2.06	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.79	Buy
09/19/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.92	Add
09/19/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Buy
10/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.64	2.06	Buy
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.79	Buy
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Buy
10/31/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.78	Buy	DDM
10/31/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy	DDM
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.63	2.05	Buy
11/04/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.83	Add
11/04/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.69	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.58	2.05	Buy	DDM
11/21/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.59	1.8	Buy
11/22/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.59	1.78	Buy	DDM
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.58	1.8	Buy
11/26/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.78	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.78	Buy
01/14/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Buy
01/31/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.62	Neutral	DDM
01/31/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy	DCF
02/03/20	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.62	Hold
02/03/20	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy
02/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.89	Buy
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy
02/13/20	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.51	1.5	Hold	PB1x
02/19/20	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.5	1.62	Buy
03/16/20	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.12	1.09	Hold
04/20/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	0.955	1.03	Neutral	DDM
04/21/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	0.95	1.3	Buy	DCF
04/27/20	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	0.895	1.32	Buy	DDM
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	0.95	1.3	Buy
06/09/20	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.19	1.31	Add
06/23/20	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.09	1.03	Neutral

Stock calls for 9 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/09/20	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.3	3	Neutral	DDM
07/09/20	DBS Vickers	ARA Logistics	0.595	0.7	Buy
07/09/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.1	1.35	Buy
07/09/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.99	2.25	Buy
07/09/20	CIMB	Riverstone	3.3	3.9	Add
07/09/20	Amfrasers	Silverlake	0.25	0.3	outperform
07/09/20	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.41	0.5	Buy
07/09/20	Lim & Tan	Tiong Woon	0.375	0	Accumlate
07/09/20	CIMB	UG Healthcare	1.8	2.1	Add

Trump's aides are desperate in fighting for their jobs. - Part 2

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-currency-traders-dont-believe-trump-administration-will-pursue-a-proposal-to-break-hong-kong-dollar-peg-2020-07-08?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Most analysts agree with our opinion below.  We've been proven right again!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/trumps-aides-are-desperate-in-fighting.html

The bottom line is there is nothing the US government can do to de-peg the US-HK peg because only the HK government can do it.