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Thursday, July 16, 2020

China Q2 GDP growth was 3.2%! How real was it?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3093371/china-gdp-economy-avoids-recession-second-quarter-growth-32

China expanded 3.2% in Q2 2020 which showed great economic resiliency.


We had earlier projected in Feb 2020 that China Q2 would be worse than Q1 and we were wrong because we belittled the communist's power in boosting its economic growth and containing the virus outbreak.  Therefore, we are providing an update now since there was no update after Feb 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets_21.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets_17.html

After our postings in Feb 2020, China had managed to contain the COVID outbreak and boost its economic growth with stimulative policies.  This is the advantage of a communist country because it can channel and divert all the resources to develop its country without any reservation.

How real is China GDP growth?  Is the GDP growth of 3.2% a fudged number?

Well, the GDP number doesn't necessarily reflect economic reality as shown below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-latest-us-gdp-growth-is-not.html

Therefore, we will analyze other economic variables to ascertain the veracity of the GDP growth.

China PMI

China PMIs had been in an expansionary mode from April to June 2020.  How is PMI related to GDP?  Please see our posting below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

China retail sales
China retail sales had been rebounding from its doldrum of -20.5 in Jan to -1.8 in June 2020.

China Import

China Export

In conclusion, the other economic variables (PMI, retail sales, import & export) had improved in Q2 which indicated that the Q2 GDP growth in China was real.
Posted by at 2 comments:

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Comfortdelgro - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/10/19Kim EngComfortdelgro2.842.76HoldDCF
07/10/19UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.843.08BuyPER19.5x FY20
07/11/19AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.822.77NeutralPER19x FY19
07/15/19phillipComfortdelgro2.812.99AccumulateDCF
07/22/19DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.82.65NeutralDCF
08/14/19CIMBComfortdelgro2.622.78AddDCF
08/14/19DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.622.55NeutralDCF
08/14/19OCBCComfortdelgro2.622.91Hold
08/14/19phillipComfortdelgro2.622.99AccumulateDCF, PER18.6x FY19
08/14/19UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.622.95Buy
08/14/19DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.622.59Hold
08/15/19AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.512.77NeutralPER19x FY19
08/15/19CIMBComfortdelgro2.512.78Add
09/04/19DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.462.59Hold
09/19/19DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.452.55NeutralDCF
10/02/19Kim EngComfortdelgro2.412.76BuyDCF
10/09/19UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.422.95Buy
10/09/19DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.422.59Hold
11/14/19Kim EngComfortdelgro2.382.7BuyDCF
11/14/19DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.382.38NeutralDCF
11/14/19UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.382.27HoldBuy @ $2
11/14/19DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.382.48HoldSum of parts, PER17.8x FY20
11/14/19CIMBComfortdelgro2.382.28HoldDCF
11/20/19AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.362.61OutperformPER19x FY20
11/21/19phillipComfortdelgro2.352.56AccumulateDCF, PER18.6x FY19
12/02/19AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.352.61OutperformPER19x FY20
12/06/19DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.42.38NeutralDCF
02/04/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.132.38NeutralDCF
02/06/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.142.45BuyDCF, PER18.1x FY20
02/06/20CIMBComfortdelgro2.142.09Hold
02/17/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro2.182.25NeutralDCF, PER18x FY20
02/17/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro2.182.15HoldBuy @ $1.95
02/17/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro2.182.26HoldDCF & PER17.7x FY20
02/17/20CIMBComfortdelgro2.182.08HoldBuy @ $1.88
02/19/20phillipComfortdelgro2.092.2AccumulateDCF
02/24/20AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.022.28OutperformPER17.5x FY20
03/10/20AmfrasersComfortdelgro1.812.28OutperformPER17.5x FY20
03/31/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.481.55HoldPER15x FY20
03/31/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.481.55Hold
04/02/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.471.54NeutralDCF
04/27/20OCBCComfortdelgro1.431.75Buy
05/18/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.461.99BuyDCF
05/20/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro1.561.82BuyPER16.7x FY21
05/26/20phillipComfortdelgro1.541.5NeutralDCF
05/26/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.541.45NeutralDCF
05/26/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.541.5HoldPER15x FY20/21
05/26/20Lim & TanComfortdelgro1.540Hold
05/26/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.541.98BuyDCF
05/26/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.541.5Hold
06/01/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.441.68BuyPER16.8x FY20/21
06/02/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.431.65BuyDCF, PER15.5x FY21
06/29/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.521.98BuyDCF
06/29/20Lim & TanComfortdelgro1.520Hold
07/01/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.451.46HoldPER13.1x FY21
07/02/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.481.65BuyDCF, PER16x FY21
07/03/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.471.68Buy
Posted by at No comments:

CNMC - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/19/19phillipCNMC0.30.33AccumulateDCF
Posted by at No comments:

Clearbridge - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
09/06/19phillipClearbridge0.1420.26BuyDCF
02/06/20TayronaClearbridge0.1390.41Overweight
03/10/20phillipClearbridge0.1160.26BuyDCF
Posted by at No comments:

Stock calls for 15 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/15/20CIMBBoustead0.7051Add
07/15/20CIMBBoustead Projects0.790.88Add
07/15/20OCBCCity Developments8.2710.74Buy
07/15/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.740.74NeutralDCF
07/15/20DBS VickersRiverstone3.13.9BuyPER24x FY20
07/15/20UOB Kay HianSPH1.251.41HoldSum of parts, Buy @ $1.20
07/15/20CIMBSPH1.251.35Hold
07/15/20OCBCSPH1.251.35HoldPER15x
Posted by at No comments:

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html

The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.
  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
    • Posted by at 1 comment:

    Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time.

    We saw a recession constellation aligning last year and it happened exactly as we projected.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

    We see another constellation aligning now but this time will be a big financial crisis due to excessive monetary policies by the central bankers worldwide.  This deceptive market rally will burst ultimately and many retail investors will be burnt this time particularly in the US and China.  The stock markets have completely decoupled from economic reality.

    Are we going to be right again? I will let time be the judge and the truth will reveal itself.  Don't worry, you don't need to wait for years for this to happen.

    Just remember our motto: We are not always right but we are also seldom wrong.
    Posted by at 2 comments:

    Tuesday, July 14, 2020

    City Developments - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/15/19OCBCCity Developments9.4710.68Buy
    08/13/19OCBCCity Developments9.0410.68Buy
    08/13/19DMG & PartnersCity Developments9.049.2NeutralRNAV (40% discount)
    08/13/19DBS VickersCity Developments9.0411BuyRNAV (30% discount)
    08/19/19Lim & TanCity Developments9.160Buy
    09/12/19DMG & PartnersCity Developments9.99.2Neutral
    10/01/19DBS VickersCity Developments9.8211Buy
    10/18/19Credit SuisseCity Developments10.3911.6Outperform
    10/23/19UOB Kay HianCity Developments10.6712Buy
    11/13/19UOB Kay HianCity Developments10.6712Buy
    11/14/19DMG & PartnersCity Developments10.4710.5NeutralRNAV (40% discount)
    11/25/19DBS VickersCity Developments10.7811Hold
    12/11/19Lim & TanCity Developments10.540Buy
    12/16/19DMG & PartnersCity Developments10.710.5NeutralRNAV (40% discount)
    12/17/19CIMBCity Developments10.812.09Add
    01/02/20DBS VickersCity Developments10.9513BuyRNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
    02/26/20OCBCCity Developments10.6612.02Buy
    02/27/20CIMBCity Developments10.3712.09Add
    02/27/20OCBCCity Developments10.3712.01BuyRNAV (35% discount)
    02/27/20DBS VickersCity Developments10.3713BuyRNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
    02/28/20UOB Kay HianCity Developments10.1712.5Buy
    03/03/20phillipCity Developments9.7411.89BuyRNAV (30% discount), PB0.98x FY20
    05/13/20UOB Kay HianCity Developments7.969.5Buy
    05/14/20CIMBCity Developments7.6510.13Add
    05/28/20Lim & TanCity Developments7.6811.2Buy
    05/29/20DMG & PartnersCity Developments7.679.5BuyRNAV (45% discount)
    06/26/20Morgan StanleyCity Developments8.3210.5Overweight
    07/13/20OCBCCity Developments8.7312.01Buy
    07/14/20DMG & PartnersCity Developments8.379.5Buy
    Posted by at No comments:

    Citic Envirotech - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/25/19DBS VickersCitic Envirotech0.3050.34Hold
    11/07/19Lim & TanCitic Envirotech0.370.55Accept Offeroffer price @ $0.55
    Posted by at No comments:

    China Sunsine - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/08/19phillipChina Sunsine1.081.43BuyFCFE
    10/04/19CIMBChina Sunsine1.11.1Hold
    10/10/19AmfrasersChina Sunsine1.121.4OutperformDCF
    11/12/19AmfrasersChina Sunsine1.031.2OutperformDCF
    12/02/19AmfrasersChina Sunsine1.031.2OutperformDCF
    04/06/20CIMBChina Sunsine0.280.38AddAfter stock split (1 into 2)
    Posted by at No comments:

    Stock calls for 14 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/14/20DMG & PartnersAPAC Realty0.3850.5Buy
    07/14/20Lim & TanART0.9950Neutral
    07/14/20DMG & PartnersCapitaland2.874Buy
    07/14/20DMG & PartnersCity Developments8.379.5Buy
    07/14/20MacquarieDBS21.5426outperformPB
    07/14/20CIMBFrasers Logistics1.231.43AddDDM
    07/14/20MacquarieKeppel Corp6.017OutperformSum of parts
    07/14/20DMG & PartnersOxley0.2350.29Buy
    07/14/20DBS VickersSATS2.782.83HoldDCF & PER25x FY22
    07/14/20OCBCSATS2.782.76Hold
    07/14/20CIMBSATS2.782.8Reduce
    Posted by at No comments:

    China has imposed sanction against Lockheed Martin.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b79821fb-eb99-4418-8cd3-e7df0c42b5fa

    This is just a symbolic gesture with no real bite.  It will be a different thing if China imposes sanctions against companies dealing with Lockheed Martin.  China has to follow what the US is doing to Huawei to strike hard at US firms.

    If China does that, then the suppliers have to decide to deal with Lockheed Martin or to give up the whole China market.  The choice is very obvious as Lockheed Martine is just a small customer compared to the whole China market.

    Posted by at No comments:

    China has imposed sanctions against US officials in a tit-for-tat response.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sanctions-u-officials-including-075456201.html

    This is an expected response from China.  If the US sanctions against any HK/China bank, China will also do the same.

    The US is foolish to engage in such a silly ante just to score some political points at home.
    Posted by at No comments:

    Singapore Q2 GDP growth is a lot worse than Q1.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-shrinks-over-40-000345419.html

    The QoQ growth of -41% and YoY growth of -12.6% show that we're right in our projection in March 2020 because Q2 is a lot worse than Q1.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/singapore-gdp-contracts-22-yoy.html

    We're not a brilliant clairvoyant but we're just a brilliant analyst.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better sit up straight and listen.

    My motto: We're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.
    Posted by at 1 comment:

    Monday, July 13, 2020

    China Everbright - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/16/19phillipChina Everbright0.3150.5BuyPER9x
    05/29/20DBS VickersChina Everbright0.1990.49BuyPER7x
    Posted by at No comments:

    China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/10/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.31.6Buy
    08/08/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.231.6Buy
    08/13/19phillipChina Aviation Oil1.181.52BuyPER10.5x FY20
    08/13/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.181.5BuySum of parts
    08/13/19DBS VickersChina Aviation Oil1.181.85Buy
    09/02/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.151.5BuySum of parts
    11/04/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.231.55BuySum of parts
    01/21/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.281.55Buy
    02/27/20CIMBChina Aviation Oil1.161.25HoldPER8.5x FY21
    02/28/20DBS VickersChina Aviation Oil1.161.65BuyPER10x FY20
    03/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil0.9651.3BuySum of parts
    04/22/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.3BuySum of parts
    04/23/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts, PB0.9x
    05/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts, PER2.6x FY21 (ex-cash)
    06/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.141.25BuyPB0.9x, PER3.5x FY21 (ex-cash)
    07/06/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts
    Posted by at No comments:

    Centurion - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/15/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.410.43NeutralDCF
    10/07/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.40.43NeutralDCF
    10/25/19DBS VickersCenturion0.410.52BuyDCF
    11/14/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.420.43NeutralDCF
    11/14/19DBS VickersCenturion0.420.52BuyDCF
    12/17/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4350.47NeutralDCF
    01/08/20CIMBCenturion0.440.61AddDCF
    03/02/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4450.49NeutralDCF
    03/02/20DBS VickersCenturion0.4450.53BuyDCF
    03/18/20CIMBCenturion0.390.58AddDCF
    03/30/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3950.41HoldDCF
    04/13/20CIMBCenturion0.3850.58Add
    04/22/20DBS VickersCenturion0.380.41HoldDCF
    04/29/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.3850.41NeutralDCF
    05/18/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3750.42HoldDCF
    Posted by at No comments:

    Stock calls for 13 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/13/20OCBCA-Reit3.263.52Buy
    07/13/20OCBCCapitaland2.913.99Buy
    07/13/20OCBCCity Developments8.7312.01Buy
    07/13/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6550.73outperformDDM
    07/13/20Kim EngFrencken0.9151.2BuyRoe-g/Coe-g, PB1.6x FY20
    07/13/20OCBCMapletree North Asia0.9451.13Buy
    07/13/20OCBCNetlink0.981.1Buy
    07/13/20phillipSATS2.881.95SellPB1.35x
    07/13/20UOB Kay HianSATS2.882.93HoldEV/Invested capital basis
    07/13/20Lim & TanSATS2.880Avoid
    07/13/20OCBCSingtel2.513.24Buy
    07/13/20OCBCST Engineering3.353.9Buy
    Posted by at No comments:

    We need regular vaccinations to keep covid away.

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/immunity-covid-19-could-lost-163154231.html

    This covid virus will change our lives now because our covid immunity is only temporary.  This understanding helps to explain why some people get reinfected and tested positive again.

    The biggest winners will be those pharmaceutical companies because they can sell the vaccines periodically as their bread and butter drugs. Grrr!
    Posted by at No comments:

    Saturday, July 11, 2020

    Baltic dry index - 1810


    Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
    Posted by at No comments:

    US rig count - 958


    Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
    Posted by at No comments:

    The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

    The oppositions have done pretty well for the 2020 GE because they've taken down 2 GRCs and 1 SMC.
    What's more interesting is that the designated PM Heng has very weak support from Singaporeans.
    Many SG ministers have over 60% support from Singaporeans except Heng Swee Keat (PM-Designate) and S Iswaran. who have a low 50% support.  Being the designated PM after PM Lee, this is a very bad result compared to PM Lee who has over 70% support.  This shows that many Singaporeans do not have faith in Heng.  Maybe PM Lee should reconsider his choice for the next PM.
    Posted by at No comments:
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