No US monetary and fiscal policy can save the US stock markets. - Part 5

It has been some time since I last updated this posting.  Therefore, I will highlight some economic indicators to show that there is a limit to what the US FED can do beyond a certain threshold.  Do not believe in analysts that tell you not to fight the FED because the FED is not omnipotent.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/market-distortions-are-precursors-of.html

The FED balance sheet has exceeded US$7T because of its stimulative policies to revive the US economy.  How much more can the FED buy to protect its economy?  How effective is the FED's purchases in helping to support the economy?

Some analysts said that the FED balance sheet could top US$10T if it would be necessary to support the US economy.  Well, I doubt the effectiveness of this type of asset purchase because the FED is only keeping the zombies alive by prolonging their existence.

Chapter 11 cases (Corp. bankruptcies) would be much higher than the projected number without the debt or loan moratorium periods imposed by the US government and the FED asset purchases (MBS, CMBS, etc) during this covid outbreak.  Therefore, we can expect a deluge of bankruptcies after these policies are withdrawn because zombies are still zombies after all.

The US excess reserves have been increasing after August 2020.  Why?  Is the IOER so attractive that the US banks are rushing to deposit their excess cash with the FED to earn the high-interest return?  Of course not!

The IOER is at 0.10% but the US banks are still interested to park their excess cash with the FED.  Why?

Well, I can only say that the US banks are less inclined to do money lendings to earn better interest returns than the IOER.  Why?  There are many reasons for this.  

Maybe the banks cannot find better opportunities.

Maybe the banks are risk-averse nowadays.

Maybe the banks are not optimistic about the future.

Maybe..........

I let my viewers form their own opinions but the fact is the US banks are parking their cash with the FED instead of pumping the cash into the financial system to increase the money supply as expected by the FED.  My take on this is that the FED action (increase the money supply) is losing its efficacy.

Maybe the bank is right after all.  Why?

The US permanent job losses have been spiking since January 2020.  The permanent job losses mean that these jobs won't return after the pandemic.  Whatever is gone is lost forever!  It looks like the stimulative policies cannot save these jobs at all.

The velocity of M2 money plunges into the abyss in 2020.  What does the velocity mean?  In layman terminology, the velocity means the turnover rate of money.  The Americans are well known for being spenders than savers but they're keeping their monies longer with them in 2020 and have a lesser propensity to use their monies which results in the velocity falling off the precipice.  Why are Americans not using their monies frequently in 2020 like before?  I will let my viewers think about this.  All I can say is that a healthy economy will not have such a significant plunge in just a year.  Are the stimulative policies not working anymore?

Last but not least, I must say that a healthy stock market and a good economy must have corresponding good economic traits.  Otherwise, a financial crisis will ensue after the threshold is breached.  Where is that threshold? I really don't know but I will know it when the financial crisis hits us.  By then, it will be too late!

Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests! - Part 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thai_protests#:~:text=Three%20demands%20were%20presented%20to,drafting%20of%20a%20new%20constitution.

We are right about the BKK protests!

The BKK protestors have 3 demands.

"Three demands were presented to the Government of Thailand: the dissolution of parliament, ending intimidation of the people, and the drafting of a new constitution."

None of the 3 demands is about China or the banning of Huawei 5G.  Therefore, there shouldn't be any anti-China element in the protests unless the protests are funded by the US.

However, the Taiwan independence flag, Hong Kong pro-democracy flag, and the flag of Tibet were present during the BKK protests.  Why?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4030648

The answer is crystal clear!

Guocoland - Stock calls

 

GSS Energy - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 21 October 2020

 

The US hospitality debts are going to blow up soon!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-third-of-us-hotels-could-disappear-hospitality-asset-managers-association-report-173743714.html

What will this impact?

Well, these hospitality debts are packaged into CMBS by banks and sold to the US FED and other investors.  Therefore, the banks won't be impacted as they've transferred the risks to other financial institutions and investors.

However, the CMBS market won't escape unscathed and might create a domino effect on other CMBS securities because investors might stay away from CMBS.  When the CMBS liquidity disappears, the prices will crash unless the FED is prepared to step in to support the market again.

This crisis will make it very difficult for the FED to remain assets light and the FED will be heavily loaded with high-risk assets which will make the FED hard to shed these risky assets in the future.

Western forces are behind Thailand (BKK) protests!

I see many similarities between the HK and BKK protests and I've highlighted them in this post.

The western forces (US & UK) are using the same modus operandi in HK and BKK.

The western forces will first instigate the local residents to hate their governments, brainwash them with western human rights values and democracy, and fund their protests to invoke a change in governance.

The first step to instigate the Thais to hate their King and government was done by a UK journalist.  He revealed the King's expenditures in an exorbitant and profligate manner with the intention to cause public disgruntlement.

https://hype.my/2020/197034/thai-king-vajiralongkorn-shocking-expenses/

Next, the western forces will brainwash the students with western human rights values and democracy since students are easily manipulated.  The students are usually the leading forces in the protests and they'll proclaim that their protests are leaderless which are just like HK's protests.

Lastly, the protests will be funded by western NGOs such as NED.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/hong-kong-protests/259202/

https://www.ned.org/region/asia/thailand-2019/

NED was set up by the CIA under the direction of President Ronald Regan.  On the surface, the NED's mission is to promote democracy but its real intention is to overthrow any anti-US government.

These BKK protests have caused many Thai family discords and disharmonies now because the older generations support the monarchy whilst the younger generations don't since they've been brainwashed.  This kind of family/society ramification also occurred in HK.

The Thais should look at HK and learn from Hongkongers' mistakes.  The Hongkongers are regretting their riotings in 2018-2019 now because corporation bankruptcies have gone up and the unemployment rate is at a 16-year high.  HK is worse off now after the HK riots and covid.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/many-hongkongers-are-regretting-their.html

The covid outbreak has destroyed Thailand's economy and these BKK protests will only exacerbate the economic situation.  The bankruptcies and unemployment rates will rise correspondingly if these BKK protests are continued for a longer period.

Great Eastern - Stock calls

 

Grand Venture - Stock calls

 

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Stock calls for 20 October 2020

Many Hongkongers are regretting their riotings in 2018-2019 now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/cathay-pacific-cut-6-000-092620228.html

Many HK pilots and aircrews would be fired and things wouldn't be this bad if there were no protests in 2018-2019.

The HK bankruptcies also started to creep up above its mean after 2018 because of the anemic GDP growth caused by the HK riots and covid outbreak.

Many rioters are regretting their actions now because they've sparked the economic downfall and they're experiencing severe economic repercussions.

Furthermore, China has given Shenzhen more autonomy to develop its own economy to supersede HK.

I believe the HK rioters have gotten what they've asked for.  Hahaha!

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 11

https://rb.gy/g6y43y

The S&P 500 is still showing a bearish trend because it has crashed through the 2nd candlestick gap.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-10.html

GL Ltd - Stock calls

 

Genting - Stock calls

 

Fu Yu - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 19 October 2020

 

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 10

https://rb.gy/g6y43y 

How to identify a buying signal?

The S&P had rebounded but didn't close above the candlestick gap.  Therefore, we need to wait for the S&P to close above the gap and also be above the 5-day SMA in order to buy S&P again.

Like I've said previously, there must be at least 2 positive technical indicators before we can buy or 2 negative indicators before we can sell.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-9.html

Baltic dry index - 1477

 

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 851

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

The northern hemisphere is facing a 2nd wave of covid outbreak.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/europe/europe-coronavirus.html

The 2nd wave of the pandemic has slapped SUTD again for its inaccurate data analysis on the covid outbreak.

SUTD was completely wrong in its data analysis for the covid situation in SG and France.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/sutd-made-bizarre-epidemic-prediction.html

SUTD didn't factor in the seasonal factor in its data analysis which we had mentioned below.  Furthermore, SUTD followed the common bell curve principle blindly in its data analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for.html

This singularity analysis resulted in a big margin of error and brought shame to SUTD.

We had managed to predict South Africa's outbreak by factoring in the seasonal factor and this seasonal factor is affecting the northern hemisphere again.

Frencken - Stock calls

 

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 16 October 2020

 

Singapore Nodx rose 5.9% in September 2020.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-september-exports-rise-5-020329490.html 

Year on year changes (YOY):

September 2020: 5.9%

August 2020: 7.7%

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 9

https://rb.gy/g6y43y

When is the time to sell?

Well, when there are at least 2 negative indicators appearing, then that will be the signal to sell.

The ellipse that I've drawn has 2 negative indicators.  The S&P closed below the 5-day SMA and the stochastics had a bearish crossover (black line < red line).

Furthermore, the bearish sentiment has appeared because the latest S&P index has crashed through the most recent candlestick gap.

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

 

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

 

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 15 October 2020

The US inflation is coming! - Part 4

 

From the above chart, we can tell that US inflation is coming.  Please look at our previous explanation about CPI vs PPI below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/how-do-you-interpret-ppi-vs-cpi-and.html

My analysis is telling me that the US will achieve CPI above 2% in the 1st half of 2021 and the earliest period to hit the 2% target is in the 1st quarter of 2021.

Let's see if my analysis is correct or not.

Food Empire - Stock calls

 

First Sponsor - Stock calls

First resources - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 14 October 2020

 

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 8

S&P 500 

https://rb.gy/g6y43y

The S&P 500 had developed another candlestick gap.  However, the S&P had just settled slightly below the Bollinger band.  Please read below about the Bollinger band interpretation.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-6.html

As long as S&P doesn't crash through the latest candlestick gap, it is still on a bullish trend.

Who will win the US presidential election? - Part 3

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/xi-jinping-tells-marines-focus-152450011.html

When we told you that Trump might invoke a military confrontation with China just to remain as the US president, many people had doubts about our analysis.

However, President Xi didn't have a whiff of doubt about this and told his marines to be ready for war after we posted our analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/who-will-win-us-presidential-election_10.html

First Reit - Stock calls

 

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

 

ESR-Reit - Stock calls

 

Stock calls for 13 October 2020

 

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 7

https://rb.gy/g6y43y

The S&P had developed another candlestick gap recently.  We had explained the candlestick gap previously below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/s-500-technical-analysis-part-3.html

The S&P is still having a bullish trend unless it crashes through the gap.

Ellipsiz - Stock calls

Elite ComReit - Stock calls

 

EC World Reit - Stock calls

Stock calls for 12 October 2020

Who will win the US presidential election? - Part 2

President Trump has refused to debate with Joe Biden virtually.  Why?

Well, this is because Trump truly believes that Biden has dementia and a virtual debate will allow Biden to cheat.  Therefore, Trump keeps insisting on a person-to-person live debate.  Biden doesn't want such a debate because Trump is still contagious and can spread the virus to other people.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html

Nancy Pelosi wants to remove Trump from office now because the only way for Trump to continue to be the US president is to invoke a military confrontation with China by using Taiwan as a pawn and she wants to stop Trump from doing that.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/house-oversight-commission-president-health/index.html

Trump will continue to be the temporary or transitory President during the military confrontation and he can continue to serve another term thereafter without going through the presidential election process after the election deadline.  This election bypass is totally legitimate and Nancy doesn't want Trump to abuse this legal loophole for his own benefit.

The die is cast in stone already.  Biden will prevail unless Trump abuses the legal loophole.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/who-will-win-us-presidential-election.html

Baltic dry index - 1970

 Baltic Dry Index as of October 8

The Baltic Dry Index fell by 3.62%

On 8 October 2020, the Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,970 points, down 74 points (-3.62%) versus the level of October 7.

BDI is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis, the index covers Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.

===================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 856

 Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Who will win the US presidential election?

I think that Joe Biden will win this upcoming US presidential election because many people have lost faith in Trump and they have stopped indulging in his lies.

The white house is a hotbed now because it has infected 34 staffs insofar and this number is set to increase further.

Trump is a person who is using political means to handle this pandemic instead of scientific methods.  His US-China trade war is also hurting ordinary Americans and his pandemic handling has killed more than 200,000 Americans.

How many more Americans must die before the whole nation will wake up to vote him out?  Let's see!

S&P 500 Technical analysis. - Part 6

https://rb.gy/crq5ah

Just as we had expected, the S&P continued on its bullish trend.  However, the S&P is almost breaching the upper limit of the bollinger band.  As we can see from historical data, the index can only stay outside the Bollinger band within a short span of time before reverting to its mean.

I've also drawn the new resistance and support lines.  Currently, the S&P is staying above all SMAs.  Once the S&P crashes below the 5-day SMA, it means that the tide has turned temporarily.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/s-500-technical-analysis-part-5.html

Eagle Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

 

Delfi - Stock calls

 

DBS Bank - Stock calls

Stock calls for 9 October 2020

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 10

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/06/amazon-apple-facebook-google-congress/

US investigation faults the US technological firms with anti-competition monopoly tactics.

This is getting interesting.

An unknown force or someone is trying to capitalize on the existing dour economic situation and induce a financial crisis by disrupting the banking and technology sectors now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/09/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_29.html

A healthy stock market must commensurate with good economic traits.  However, good economic traits are lacking in the current euphoric stock market.  This aberration cannot continue perpetually and will come to an end eventually.  It looks like an unknown force or someone is trying to do that now by creating a financial crisis.