Singapore Stock Exchange - Equity Investments

Monday, July 4, 2022

Ifast Corp - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/01/21	CIMB	Ifast Corp	8.15	8	Add
07/26/21	Lim & Tan	Ifast Corp	9.18	0	Take Profit
07/26/21	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	9.18	11.5	Buy	DCF, PER73.1x FY22
07/27/21	CIMB	Ifast Corp	8.84	8.31	Hold
07/27/21	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	8.84	12.1	Buy	DCF
08/02/21	CIMB	Ifast Corp	8.02	12.5	Add	DCF
10/21/21	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	9.88	7	Sell
10/21/21	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	9.88	11.5	Buy	DCF
10/26/21	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	9.21	7.5	Sell
10/26/21	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	9.21	12.93	Buy	DCF
01/10/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	7.85	7.5	Sell
01/10/22	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	7.85	11.37	Buy	DCF
01/10/22	UBS	Ifast Corp	7.85	11	Buy
01/13/22	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	7.86	9.75	Buy	DCF
01/27/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	6.84	6.2	Sell
02/15/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	6.18	5.2	Sell
02/15/22	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	6.18	10.85	Buy	DCF
02/17/22	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	6.36	9.84	Buy	DCF
04/25/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	5.66	5.2	Sell
04/25/22	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	5.66	8.75	Buy	DCF
04/25/22	UOB Kay Hian	Ifast Corp	5.66	5.17	Hold	PER40.3x FY22, Buy @ $4.40
04/26/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	5.31	4.2	Sell
04/26/22	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	5.31	5.42	Hold	DCF

Hyphens Pharma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/28/21	Amfrasers	Hyphens Pharma	0.315	0.43	Buy	PER17x FY22
08/27/21	SAC Capital	Hyphens Pharma	0.31	0.37	Buy	PER17.5x FY21
11/22/21	Phillip	Hyphens Pharma	0.3	0.345	Accumulate	DCF
01/07/22	CIMB	Hyphens Pharma	0.295	0.36	Add	DCF, PER13.5x FY22
04/04/22	Amfrasers	Hyphens Pharma	0.29	0.38	Outperform	PER15x FY22
04/07/22	SAC Capital	Hyphens Pharma	0.3	0.4	Buy
05/13/22	Lim & Tan	Hyphens Pharma	0.28	0.37	Buy
05/20/22	CIMB	Hyphens Pharma	0.28	0.36	Add
05/20/22	SAC Capital	Hyphens Pharma	0.28	0.4	Buy
06/06/22	Phillip	Hyphens Pharma	0.295	0.43	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 4 July 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/22	Lim & Tan	Capitaland Investment	3.79	4.27	Buy
07/04/22	DBS Vickers	ESR-Reit	0.4	0.5	Buy	DCF
07/04/22	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.425	0.55	Buy	Sum of parts
07/04/22	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	0.107	0.098	Hold
07/04/22	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.42	2.8	Buy	DCF

Sunday, July 3, 2022

Financial risks are rising in the US! - Part 2

Part 1: https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/07/financial-risks-are-rising-in-us.html

The Move Index has increased again and breached a 5-year peak.

The US 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) is having an upward trend since 2021 because investors are buying the CDS as insurance to hedge risks (against non-payments). This means that investors are expecting defaults to rise due to their bleak outlook.

Is the US in a technical recession now?

Let's take a look at the Atlanta Fed's estimate.

The Atlanta Fed's estimate for Q2 is at -2.1 now. The Q1 GDP growth was -1.6 and if the Q2 estimate had materialized, this would put the US in a technical recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Is there any validity to the above estimate? Yes!

Let's look at the commodity index. The CRB index was showing a significant fall recently which meant that consumer demand had collapsed as there was no demand for raw materials.

Furthermore, the EU has sky-high inflation of 8.6%. This means that the US will have an imported inflation problem and the US FED has to continue its rate hike trajectory to contain its inflation. However, the increases in US rates during a technical recession will exacerbate the US economic growth.

As long as the Ukraine war doesn't end, the inflation problem will be difficult to resolve because energy prices will stay at an elevated level. All hell will break loose if Russia cuts its oil supply.

Last but not least, the Bank of America issued a dire warning recently.

The June ISM PMI declined to a 1-year low (53).

Just as we had expected, the June ISM PMI had declined. We had told our viewers to ignore the May ISM PMI previously because it was an aberration.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/06/ism-pmi-increased-slightly-in-may-2022.html

Let's do an analysis of the June PMI to determine its outlook.

The prices subindex had eased to 78.5 (-3.7) because of an easing in supply disruption and a collapse in consumer demand. The new order (49.2, -5.9) had just entered a contractionary phase (below 50). Moreover, the new export order (50.7, -2.2) and new local order (Est’d -3.7) declined simultaneously. This had resulted in the backlog order decreasing to 53.2 (-5.5) as there were fewer unfulfilled orders. The customers’ inventories (35.2, +2.5) increased because of lower consumer spending.

The production had increased to 54.9 (+0.7) with lower employment (47.3, -2.3) and faster supplier’s deliveries (57.3, - 8.4) because of higher productivity. Employment was lower because of the bleak production outlook and difficulties in hiring. Thus, the inventories stayed relatively stable (56, +0.1).

In conclusion, the above factors caused the PMI to decline to a 1 year low of 53 (-3.1) and would continue its downward trajectory.

Baltic dry index - 2214

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 750

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Saturday, July 2, 2022

Financial risks are rising in the US!

The risk index (Move) for the US bond market is going to breach a 5-year record high. This doesn't bode well for the bond market since a high move index denotes a bond bubble and high risk.

The high yield (Junk debt) spread is also rising which means investors are demanding higher risk premiums to buy debts. This doesn't bode well for the corporate debt market because companies will face more difficulties raising funds.

The home price to median household income ratio is indicating the property market is in a BIG bubble already because the ratio is even higher than in the previous housing bubble.

All in all, the public debts (US treasuries), private debts (corporate debts), and property market are showing financial stresses of different magnitudes. Therefore, the current rate hike trend might be the last straw that broke the camel's back.