Stock calls for 3 october 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.69	3.7	Buy
10/03/22	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.59	0.41	Fully Valued	PER10x FY23
10/03/22	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.59	0.75	Neutral
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.98	1.29	Buy
10/03/22	DMG & Partners	City Developments	7.6	9.75	Buy
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.17	2.56	Buy
10/03/22	Phillip	Ix Biopharma	0.131	0.25	Buy	DCF
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.76	0.91	Buy
10/03/22	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	1.92	2.11	Add
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.38	3.12	Buy
10/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.56	1.94	Buy
10/03/22	Lim & Tan	MS Holdings	0.06	0	Reject offer	Takeover price $0.07
10/03/22	DBS Vickers	Propnex	1.5	1.19	Fully Valued	PER13x FY23
10/03/22	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.1	1.32	Buy

The legendary chart for 2022!

What's the legendary chart for 2022?

The chart above is the legendary chart for 2022 because it has explained the outcomes for USD, treasury yield, crypto (bitcoin), and Nasdaq for 2022.  We posted this chart in January 2022.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/analyses-of-us-main-street-economic_9.html

Let's go through the analyses in steps.

We stated that China would be doing QE for 2022.  What's the effect of QE? The QE would impact china's credit impulse first before affecting the USD.

Let's take a look at the relationship between China's credit impulse and the USD.  The chart below showed an inverse relationship.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/06/why-is-there-discrepancy-in.html

With this inverse relationship understanding, the investors will monitor china's credit impulse for the USD trajectory.  Let's look at the latest China credit impulse and USD index.

Next, we stated that the US would be doing a QT.  What's the effect of QT? The QT would impact US Fed rates first, then US treasury yields, and subsequently the stock market (particularly Nasdaq) and crypto (bitcoin).

Let's look at the relationship between Nasdaq and the US 10-year treasury yield.  We can see from the chart that there is an inverse relationship.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/05/which-segment-of-stock-market-will-be.html

Let's look at the relationship between bitcoin and Nasdaq.  We can see from the chart that there is a positive correlation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/high-correlation-between-bitcoin-and.html

Let's look at the Nasdaq and bitcoin charts in an interest rate-rising environment (2022).

As you can see, our legendary chart had already explained the outcomes for USD, treasury yield, Nasdaq, and bitcoin.

Recession risks are rising!

 The recession probability is over 90% (98.12%) now.

How real is the recession risk?

Let's take a look at the US imports.

How do we interpret the import data?

Export can be defined as "yesterday" demand and import will be defined as "tomorrow" demand.  As the US imports have slowed down, this decline can be interpreted as a reduction in consumption.  The sky-high inflation has taken a toll on the US economy and the Fed rate hikes will expedite the demand destruction.

Simultaneously, the Fed rate hikes have caused mortgage rates to spike close to 7%.

Consequently, the rising mortgage rates have caused a deterioration in housing affordability which may cause a housing crisis (recession risk).

Baltic dry index - 1760

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 604

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

GKE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/08/21	SAC Capital	GKE	0.134	0.163	Buy
07/08/21	CIMB	GKE	0.145	0.21	Add	PER10.3x CY22
08/05/21	CIMB	GKE	0.146	0.21	Add
08/05/21	SAC Capital	GKE	0.146	0.171	Buy
01/19/22	CIMB	GKE	0.116	0.16	Add	Sum of parts, PER11.7x CY22
01/26/22	SAC Capital	GKE	0.11	0.123	Hold	Sum of parts, PER13.5x FY22
06/28/22	CIMB	GKE	0.104	0.1	Hold

GHY - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	GHY	0.71	1.18	Buy
06/17/21	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.705	1	Buy	Sum of parts
07/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	GHY	0.715	1.18	Buy
08/13/21	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.63	0.87	Buy	Sum of parts
08/17/21	UOB Kay Hian	GHY	0.63	1.05	Buy
03/04/22	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.425	0.45	Hold	Sum of parts
08/10/22	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.47	0.45	Hold	Sum of parts
08/19/22	DBS Vickers	GHY	0.47	0.43	Hold	Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/30/21	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.23	0.42	outperform	DCF

Stock calls for 30 September 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/30/22	CIMB	DBS	32.93	40.2	Add
09/30/22	CIMB	OCBC	11.71	15.5	Add
09/30/22	Kim Eng	Singtel	2.67	3.15	Buy	Sum of parts
09/30/22	CIMB	UOB	26.13	35.6	Add