Property Advertisement - AMO Residence for sale!

Property Advertisement - AMO Residence for sale!
Click on the banner for more details.

Search This Blog

Monday, November 28, 2016

How did analysts and news media get the stock market so wrong with Trump's win?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-could-crash-if-donald-trump-is-elected-2016-10-31

http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/donald-trump-stocks-crash

Many analysts and news media predicted stock market crashes when Trump was elected president.  However, there was only a knee jerk reaction and the stock markets became euphoria with Trump being the president.

How did they get it so WRONG?

Well, either they were so biased and wanted to spread fears or they analysed the situation from only 1 single angle (uncertainty with Trump).  Nonetheless, they were dead wrong about the outcome.

Let's analyse the economic situation from a more objective perspective so that we can all understand the bullishness of the stock markets.

GDP = G + I + C + Nx (X-M)

Trump is a protectionist and will spend on local infrastructures (G).  This will improve employments and increase GDP since G is part of it.  The anticipated interest rate increase has caused funds (I) to flow back to USA which can be seen from USD appreciation.  Therefore, investments (I) have increased which will boost GDP since I is part of it.  Consumer consumption takes up more than 2/3 of USA GDP and consumerism will increase with better employment.  Although TPP will be terminated when Trump takes office, he is proposing bilateral trade agreements (Nx) with other countries instead of multi-lateral.  This will put USA in good stead as bilateral talks will give USA supreme bargaining power against other countries since it is the world's largest economy.  The new bilateral FTAs will have more economic benefits than TPP for USA and boost net exports (Nx).

Thus, stock markets have been trending upwards after Trump's win.  Japan stock market also benefitted a lot after Trump's win because of USD appreciation.  USD appreciation causes yen devaluation which will boost Japan's exports.


No comments: