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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Is Singapore resilient enough for the upcoming economic downturn?

Singapore is a heavily entrepôt dependent country till now as it is a small country with no natural resources.  Yes, Singapore had been through the vicissitudes of economic cycles and had been resilient throughout all the economic and financial crises.  Singapore was able to weather all these harsh tribulations because its port had been increasing the port handling capacity volumes throughout the years.  However, Singapore had lost its world’s busiest port to Shanghai and its port volumes fell in 2015 by 9%.  I hope that this decline in port volumes in 2015 is just an aberration and not the harbinger of more declines in the future.  If the port volumes begin to decline, Singapore will find it hard to recover from any economic crises in the future.


When the port volumes are having positive CAGR annually, it means that businesses are sustainable in the foreseeable future despite any negative economic growth and Singapore can recover from any recession or crisis.  Conversely, when the port volumes are having negative CAGR annually, businesses become unsustainable because there will be declining demands for the ancillary services and products pertaining to the entrepôt trades.  In a nutshell, when Singapore loses its sea hub, it will also lose its financial hub and Singapore will retrograde into a 2nd or 3rd world country.

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