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Friday, May 26, 2017

China's total debt VS USA's total debt. Don't be fooled by the western media.

The western media like to spread fears about China's debt problem and they do this by quoting China's total debt in their analyses.  The western media had been predicting the China collapse for a few years already but China grew stronger economically instead.

Total debt = National debt + Corporation debt.

China's total debt = USD$4.3T (national debt) + USD$25.6T (corporate debt) = USD$30T
China GDP = USD$11T
Total debt to GDP = 270%
Foreign reserve = USD$3T

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China

USA's total debt = USD$19.85 (national debt) + USD$29T (corporate debt) = USD$49T
USA GDP = USD$18T
Total debt to GDP = 270%
Foreign reserve = USD$116B

However, McKinsey estimated that USA total debt to GDP ratio was at 331%.

https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2016/01/29/the-29-trillion-corporate-debt-hangover-that-could-spark-a-recession/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-china-debt/

The western media like to focus on China's total debt vs USA's national debt when making a comparison between these 2 countries.  The actual fact is both countries have similar total debt to GDP ratio.  However, most China total debt is locally funded whilst USA total debt is foreign funded.  This will make a big difference during any financial crisis as foreign investors will force you for repayments compared to local investors.  Furthermore, China has USD$3T in reserves compared to USD$116B in USA and China's economy is growing at twice of USA's.  Therefore, China's economy will be bigger than USA's in the future.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/search?q=china+economy+will+be+bigger+than+usa

2 comments:

Eric Ho said...

So who should have a better credit rating after reading our objective analysis? USA or China?

Eric Ho said...

http://www.barrons.com/articles/imf-warns-of-possible-trouble-ahead-for-u-s-corporate-bonds-1492632701

IMF predicts that 20% of US corporate debts will default but western media won't report this news widely.