https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-december-2017-fomc-decision-143436424.html
The FED has raised its interest rate in December!
KGI Fraser has been proven wrong and its arguments for the no rate hike are totally invalid because it does not take into other factors in its analysis.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/kgi-fraser-is-dead-wrong-about-fed.html
We projected a December rate hike in our previous post and we got it.
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https://www.warrants.com.sg/marketnews/highlight?cat=todayhighlight&id=3841
I don't know how KGI got the neutral rate of -0.2% but the Laubach-Williams model indicates that the neutral rate is at 1.8%.
Therefore, using neutral rate to project FED interest rate trajectory is extremely risky.
We all know that a rate reduction is out of the option. Therefore, KGi had a 50% chance to get it right but it didn't.
When KGI couldn't even get a simple interest rate prediction right, it's even harder for KGI to predict a stock trajectory as the probability would be less than 50%.
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