The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August. - Part 2

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-strait-times-index-sti-has-high.html

We are right about the STI ending in the red (-5.88%) in August 2019 and this August curse has not been broken yet insofar. Yeah!

2-year US treasury and 10-year US treasury yield curves.

The 2y-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted 3x in August 2019.

The 3m-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted for the whole of August 2019.

Both the aforesaid yield curves are being closely monitored by the US FED for signs of recession.

Baltic dry index - 2277

Today, Thursday, August 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 2277 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 904

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

MIT - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/27/19	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.36	0.405	Buy	Mid-point of $0.4-0.41

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.655	0.87	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.66	0.83	Buy	DCF
08/27/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.525	0.83	Buy

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.67	1.7	Accumulate	PER15x FY19
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20

Stock calls for 30 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/30/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.13	2.3	Buy	DCF
08/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Eagle Hospitality Trust	0.675	1.02	Buy	DDM
08/30/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.9	Add	DDM
08/30/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.55	Neutral	DDM

Mermaid Maritime - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.06	Sell	Sum of parts
03/19/19	CIMB	Mermaid Maritime	0.084	0.158	Hold	PB0.48x CY18

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.03	0	Buy on weakness
02/28/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.03	1.08	Hold	PER8.5x FY20
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.985	1.33	Buy	PER11x FY19
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.35	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
02/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.25	1.45	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.38	1.43	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.42	1.5	Add	DDM
08/14/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.28	1.43	Buy

Stock calls for 29 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/29/19	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.27	0	Buy
08/29/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.425	0.6	Add
08/29/19	Macquarie	DBS	24.02	25.8	Neutral
08/29/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.15	0.14	Neutral	FCFE
08/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.23	0.34	Buy
08/29/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.23	0.31	Buy	DCF
08/29/19	Macquarie	UOB	24.41	27.2	Neutral	PB

AP news is creating a false impression of South China Sea issue again.

https://news.yahoo.com/duterte-arrives-beijing-raise-south-025940861.html

The AP news keeps reporting that the 2016 Hague arbitration invalidated China's claims.  What is this 2016 Hague arbitration?  AP news refuses to name PCA directly because it wants to mislead people that it is referring to ICJ which is under the UN.  PCA is a private entity and is not under the UN.  We've stated this many times before.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-truth-about-south-china-sea-ruling.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-1947-map-showed-that-south-china-sea.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/07/icj-has-declared-that-it-is-not.html

Public vandalism is part and parcel of Hong Kong protest.

Is public vandalism allowed in the HK protest?

The police must punish those who destroy public properties deliberately.  They're lucky they're not in SG because vandalism of public properties carries a jail term and strokes of caning.

These are what the HK protestors called peaceful protests. Take a look and learn the new definition of "peaceful".

A picture tells a thousand words and a video tells a thousand pictures.

Do you see peaceful protests and police brutality?

or

Do you see riots and protestors' brutality?

UBS urges investors to sell stocks due to US-China trade war.

https://www.ft.com/content/98318f9a-c808-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f

UBS is very bearish about any potential US-China trade detente and concludes that a trade deal between these 2 nations would be hard to reach in the near future.  Therefore, it has recommended investors to sell stocks to avoid the volatilities caused by Trump's tirades (tweets).

Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.26	1.42	Add	DDM
01/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.33	1.39	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.4	Buy
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.3	Hold	DDM
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.5	Buy
01/23/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.34	1.44	Add	DDM
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.39	1.3	Hold
03/07/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.42	1.5	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.44	1.45	Hold
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.5	1.6	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.85	Buy
07/23/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.4	Hold
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.55	Hold
07/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.6	1.39	Hold	DDM

Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.97	2.04	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.1	Add	DDM
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	2.22	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
01/23/19	DIR	Mapletree Industrial	1.98	1.78	Underperform
01/24/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.2	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	1.94	Hold	Buy @ $1.78
02/12/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.03	2.04	Hold
02/15/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.03	Neutral
02/19/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	1.98	Hold
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	1.99	2.3	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.12	2.3	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.11	2.25	Buy	DDM
06/19/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.17	2.03	Neutral
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.18	2.25	Buy
07/11/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.32	Add	DDM
07/11/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.4	Buy	DDM
07/11/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Industrial	2.29	2.5	Buy	DCF
07/22/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.31	2.03	Neutral	DDM, PB1.36x FY19
07/24/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.06	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.37	Hold
07/25/19	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.25	2.29	Hold
07/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.25	1.94	Hold
08/26/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.28	2.03	Neutral

Mapletree Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
01/24/19	OCBC	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Hold	4.07
01/24/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.79	Add	4.07	DDM
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	2	Buy	16.28	DCF
01/24/19	Kim Eng	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.72	1.6	Hold	-6.98
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	2	Buy	10.50
02/08/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.81	1.9	Add	4.97
03/20/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.83	1.94	Add	6.01	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.87	1.8	Hold	-3.74
04/24/19	OCBC	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.84	1.85	Hold	0.54
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.89	2	Buy	5.82	DCF
05/28/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	1.93	2.03	Add	5.18
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.04	2.22	Buy	8.82	DDM
07/10/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.05	2.03	Add	-0.98
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.07	2.25	Buy	8.70	DCF
07/26/19	OCBC	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.1	1.89	Sell	-10.00
07/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.1	2.22	Buy	5.71
07/26/19	Lim & Tan	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.1	0	Hold	-100.00
07/29/19	Kim Eng	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.07	2.1	Hold	1.45	DDM
08/22/19	CIMB	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.08	2.24	Add	7.69
08/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	N2IU	Mapletree Commercial	2.12	2.22	Buy	4.72

Stock calls for 28 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/28/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.575	0.8	Buy
08/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	2.12	2.22	Buy
08/28/19	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.18	0.3	Buy	PER11x FY20
08/28/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.73	1.24	Buy	PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20

The Hongkongers have everything to lose, not nothing to lose as proclaimed by the protestors.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/now-never-hong-kong-protesters-230324090.html

The Hongkongers don't really know what they're doing and also the repercussions they'll face in the future.

HK will become a sunset city soon because of the latest economic measures in Shenzhen.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hong-kong-is-being-marginalized-by-china.html

They claimed that the housing cost was too high in HK but it was the HK residents (landlords) that blocked the revamp of the housing policy especially the land sales.

Tung Chee Hwa (ex-chief executive of HK) tried to resolve the housing problem by releasing more lands but he was forced to step down after facing severe protests against it because the land sales would bring down the property prices and rentals.  Thereafter, nobody is willing to revamp the housing policy for fear of the same backlash.

Hong Kong is being marginalized by China.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3024421/china-extends-pilot-free-trade-zones-strategic-border-regions

China has just announced 6 new FTZz to fight the US-China trade war and also to marginalize HK.  FTZs are basically tariff-free or have negligible tariffs to encourage a free flow of trading goods and services.

HK is really a sunset city now.  Nonetheless, HK is still part of China and China has promised that Hongkongers will be accorded with the same status as Shenzhen residents if they work and invest in Shenzhen.  Therefore, there will be an outflow of talents in HK in the future.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/omg-china-has-displaced-hong-kong-with.html

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.92	Buy
01/02/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.77	0.88	Buy	DCF
02/12/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0	Hold
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.94	Buy	DDM
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.855	0.92	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.835	0.95	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.85	0.94	Buy
03/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/25/19	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0	Hold
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.92	Buy
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.97	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0.96	Buy	DDM
05/29/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.86	1	Buy	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.845	0.96	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.87	1	Buy	DDM
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.96	Buy
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.875	0.98	Buy	DDM
08/15/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.89	0.98	outperform
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.89	0.98	Buy	DDM
08/19/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.89	1	Buy	DDM
08/23/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.895	1.1	Buy	DCF

M1 - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.09	1.63	Sell
01/04/19	Phillip	M1	2.08	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/08/19	OCBC	M1	2.06	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	M1	2.07	2.06	Neutral	Offer $2.06
01/29/19	CIMB	M1	2.06	2.06	Hold	Offer $2.06
02/12/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.04	1.77	Sell
03/07/19	OCBC	M1	2.05	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.515	0	Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 27 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.08	2.04	Hold	Buy @ $1.85
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.58	2.06	Buy
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.65	0.82	Buy
08/27/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.37	0.47	Add
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.21	Hold	Buy @ $1.1
08/27/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.525	0.83	Buy
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Suntec Reit	1.89	1.96	Hold	Buy @ $1.79

Renminbi has depreciated further after China's retaliation.

Blue line: USD/CNH (offshore)
Black line: USD/CNY (onshore)

RMB has depreciated further after our post below.  RMB has the potential to depreciate to 7.30 when the US-China trade tension rises further.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/huge-risk-free-arbitrage-opportunity.html

Trump lied again to stop the stock markets from falling.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/yuan-pares-back-losses-trade-041400776.html

Trump proclaimed that China called to request for a trade renegotiation and the stock markets recovered a little bit after that.

However, China's foreign ministry stated that it was unaware of such a call between the US and China.

We all know that Trump is a congenital liar and he will lie to keep the stock markets up because his cronies are losing big in the financial market.

KSH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/19	OCBC	KSH	0.52	0.81	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	KSH	0.535	0.81	Buy
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy
06/03/19	OCBC	KSH	0.45	0	Cease coverage

Koufu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.63	0.8	Buy	PER17x FY19
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy	PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.675	0.95	Buy
06/28/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.675	0.85	Buy	PER17x FY19
07/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.72	0.95	Buy
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.71	0.95	Buy
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.71	0.88	Buy	PER17x FY20

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.27	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.24	Neutral	DCF
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.23	0.23	Neutral
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.235	0.23	Neutral	DCF

Stock calls for 26 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/26/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.725	0.75	Neutral
08/26/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.07	2.18	Neutral
08/26/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.64	2.68	Neutral
08/26/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.54	1.66	Accumulate
08/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate
08/26/19	Amfrasers	IFS Capital	0.22	0.3	Outperform	PB0.6x FY20
08/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.88	7.61	Buy	Sum of parts
08/26/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.74	1.71	Neutral
08/26/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.28	2.03	Neutral
08/26/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	8.3	13.9	Buy
08/26/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.51	0.53	Hold
08/26/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.51	0.6	Buy	PER21x FY20