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Friday, February 19, 2021

The US is facing rising rates pressure in 2021.

The US risk-free rate (10y) has been trending up since the beginning of 2021.  This is within our expectation because of the recent declines in China's credit impulse as posted below.

We had also predicted that the US would face inflation pressure in 2021.

Furthermore, the US 1-year inflation expectation has been trending up (3.3% now) recently too.  The US FED has stated that its average inflation target is about 2%.

The rising rates pressure will definitely keep the US FED on edge because the US FED has to rein in its QE when the US inflation is beyond the FED's target.

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