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Sunday, February 21, 2021

Will the Quad Alliance (QA) have any impact?

Before we can comment on this Quad Alliance (QA), we need to first know the countries involved in this alliance. The QA comprises the US, Australia, Japan and India. However, the QA will have lesser influence because it is much smaller than the Indo-Pacific Alliance (IPA).

Therefore, the QA will not be able to do much except to make some noise. What can the QA do that the IPA cannot accomplish? Nothing! The IPA which is much bigger than the QA also cannot do much because it has many weak links.

Let's try to understand the IPA now.

The US established the IPA without any careful consideration about the internal conflicts amongst its alliance members.  For a start, the IPA will embolden India to take a tougher stance against its neighbours such as Pakistan and China and this will force Pakistan to strike closer strategic relationships with China and Russia.  Thus, this IPA will diminish India's neighbouring relationships.  We can see this outcome from the recent incident below.

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/sri-lanka-scraps-port-deal-as-indian-firm-rejected-terms/story/431179.html

Let's not forget that India is buying a lot of Russian weapons and it doesn't want to see a cozy relationship between Pakistan and Russia.

Japan is also part of this IPA and it has historical feuds with the IPA's 2nd tier member (South Korea).  Historical feuds (WW2 issues) are difficult to resolve and these will disrupt any cooperation between Japan and South Korea.  We can see this from the recent SK defence whitepaper publication that downgraded the SK-JP status below.

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/981657.html

Furthermore, Japan has a Kuril Islands dispute with Russia.  Therefore, Japan doesn't want to jeopardize JP-Ru relationship further with any potential IPA conflict with Russia.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/putin-rejected-abes-request-in-g20.html

Australia is a member of RCEP and will be ostracized if it uses IPA or QA to contain China.  Thus, Australia is stuck in a fissure and is facing a conundrum.

As we can see, the IPA has many weak links and it won't be able to function properly.  Needless to say, the QA cannot do anything too.

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