How likely is the US FED behind the inflation curve?

Let's take a look at the chart below to determine how likely is the US FED behind the inflation curve.

This is how a surprise index works.  When the actual situation outperforms a forecast (projection), it will have a positive number.  The reverse is true when the actual situation underperforms a forecast (projection).

As we can see from the chart, the inflation surprise index is rising.  This means that the actual inflation is outperforming the inflation forecasts. However, the chart is showing that the economic surprise index is declining.  This means that the actual economic growth is underperforming the economic forecasts.

In conclusion, analysts had been underestimating inflation and overestimating economic growth for the past 1 year.  Thus, it was highly likely that the US FED was already behind the inflation curve.