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Thursday, November 2, 2023

The US ISM PMI had a sharp drop in October 2023.


The US ISM PMI had declined to 46.7.  Let's take a look at what happened here.

Let's calculate 2 unknown sub-indices (Estimated new local orders & local raw materials) first.
* Estimated new local orders=New orders % change (-3.7) - New export order % change (+2) = -5.7%
* Estimated local raw materials=Inventories % change (-2.5) - Imports % change (-0.3) = -2.2%
We can see that the significant decline in the ISM PMI is caused by sharp drops in new orders (45.5, -3.7) and new local orders (est'd -5.7).  In short, the US consumers had cut back on their spendings.
The ISM PMI had declined for 12 consecutive months already and the US GDP should be reflecting the true main street situation soon.

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