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Tuesday, March 4, 2025

The latest PMI had declined after the producers and consumers had front-loaded their production and purchases.


Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = -6.5 - (-1) = -5.5

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = 4 - 1.5 = 2.5

The latest ISM PMI showed that producers had finished front-loading their production to avoid the upcoming Trump's tariffs that caused many current sub-indices to fall.

The US consumers had also made early purchases to avoid the upcoming tariffs and cause the current new orders, new export orders and new local orders to decline significantly.

The major downside of this PMI is the price hike that will boost inflation in the US.  Thus, the US consumers will continue to cut back on their spendings which will affect the US GDP.

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