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Sunday, December 7, 2025

The US inflation is still a big problem but the US Fed will still ease its rates for this upcoming FOMC.

The monthly PCE and core PCE are relatively stable for the past 3 consecutive months with no sign of abatement. 


The US 1-year inflation expectation is still at a relatively high of 4.1% and the 5-year inflation expectation is still above 3% which is way above the Fed's neutral rate of 2%.


However, the US Fed is expected to ease its rates as shown by the Fedwatch tool below.

This upcoming easing will definitely impact the US inflation for next year.

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