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Friday, October 16, 2026

What will the US Fed do for its upcoming October FOMC?

We had projected earlier that the US Fed would hold its rates in October FOMC.  The latest Fedwatch tool shows the same outcome as ours.

There's an 87.3% probability that the US Fed would hold its rates for October FOMC.

As the Fed had just hiked its rates in September, it would take some time for the effects to make some impacts in the market.  Therefore, the Fed can afford to wait until December to hike by 25bps or 50bps when necessary.

Furthermore, by holding the Fed's rates, Trump won't have any excuse to smear the Fed's action(hike) for his own election loss in November.  Cheers!

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