http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/emas-offshore-warns-against-going-concern-issue-after-ezras-chapter-11-filing
Ezra owns about 75% of Emas and Emas is affected by Ezra's bankruptcy. Let's see Triyards will declare the same concern or not as Ezra owns about 61%.
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
What happened to Nam Cheong today?
Nam Cheong tanked about 33% earlier in the day because of financial concerns raised by its auditor.
Let's look at Nam Cheong stock calls.
There is not a single BUY call for Nam Cheong except from Amfraser in the past. Therefore, there is no real reason to buy Nam Cheong and retail investors would have avoided this company and suffer no real losses. Avoid oil & gas companies because their customers cannot withstand economic downturns based on qualitative analysis.
Let's look at Nam Cheong stock calls.
There is not a single BUY call for Nam Cheong except from Amfraser in the past. Therefore, there is no real reason to buy Nam Cheong and retail investors would have avoided this company and suffer no real losses. Avoid oil & gas companies because their customers cannot withstand economic downturns based on qualitative analysis.
What led to Ezra's bankruptcy in USA?
2 ship owners cancelled chartering agreements with Ezra and Ezra's invoices were piling up fast. The shipping industry is a precarious environment and many shippers cannot withstand recessions or economic downturns. However, this is often not highlighted by analysts in their qualitative section of their research reports.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Stock calls for Ezra.
Lim & Tan had warned about Ezra in Oct 2016 by giving an AVOID call, CIMB gave a REDUCE call in June 2016 and UOB gave a SELL call as early as August 2016. Therefore, investors would have avoided Ezra as early as June 2016 without suffering from this mayhem (Bankruptcy).
DBS economists are so optimistic about Singapore GDP growth in 2017.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-gdp-growth-forecast-hit-022600862.html
Let's hope DBS economists don't make the same mistake as their CEO regarding swiber and ezra.
Let's hope DBS economists don't make the same mistake as their CEO regarding swiber and ezra.
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Crude oil spa is the latest fashion now!
Germany may file WTO suit against USA but it's just a wishful thinking.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/could-file-suit-against-trump-072829873.html
Trump had already said he would ignore WTO ruling and Germany couldn't do anything about it unless Germany wanted to start a trade war with USA. If Germany makes Trump too furious, Trump will no longer support NATO and other EU members will blame Germany for USA withdrawal from NATO. The ensuing outcome will be Germany will have to swallow this border tax thing and suck its thumb in a corner.
Trump had already said he would ignore WTO ruling and Germany couldn't do anything about it unless Germany wanted to start a trade war with USA. If Germany makes Trump too furious, Trump will no longer support NATO and other EU members will blame Germany for USA withdrawal from NATO. The ensuing outcome will be Germany will have to swallow this border tax thing and suck its thumb in a corner.
Baltic dry index - 1196
Today, Friday, March 17 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 24 points, reaching 1196 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
====================
Related stocks: Cosco & Sembcorp Marine.
US rig count - 789
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 21 this week to 789.
A year ago, 476 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 631 rigs sought oil and 157 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Oklahoma increased by 10 rigs, North Dakota added five, Texas gained four, Colorado and Utah were each up two, and Alaska gained one.
Wyoming lost two. Louisiana and New Mexico dropped one each.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
===================
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Friday, March 17, 2017
South Korea is so ignorant about THAAD.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/south-korea-says-china-lacks-understanding-thaad-060127296.html
Military experts know that THAAD is useless against NK because NK will use mobile rockets launchers against SK as NK has more than 10,000 such launchers. THAAD is useless against rockets launchers. NK's rockets launchers can target Seoul because of the close proximity.
http://38north.org/2016/03/jlewis030716/
Military experts know that THAAD is useless against NK because NK will use mobile rockets launchers against SK as NK has more than 10,000 such launchers. THAAD is useless against rockets launchers. NK's rockets launchers can target Seoul because of the close proximity.
http://38north.org/2016/03/jlewis030716/
Singapore non-oil domestic exports surge significantly.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/february-exports-surge-21-5-in-4th-straight-month-of-growth/3602896.html
Singapore is doing well because of China as China is our biggest export destination. February is an exceptional month because of CNY exports to Chinese countries like Taiwan and China. This is just an aberration which will not be repeated after February. This CNY export was definitely better than last year's CNY as there's burgeoning growth in the Chinese middle class. China is changing its economy structurally into a consuming nation.
We have to be wary of our dependent on China as SK's lesson is what we will encounter in the future when we offend China.
Singapore is doing well because of China as China is our biggest export destination. February is an exceptional month because of CNY exports to Chinese countries like Taiwan and China. This is just an aberration which will not be repeated after February. This CNY export was definitely better than last year's CNY as there's burgeoning growth in the Chinese middle class. China is changing its economy structurally into a consuming nation.
We have to be wary of our dependent on China as SK's lesson is what we will encounter in the future when we offend China.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Corruption is still rampant in KLIA. Taiwanese girl was detained wrongfully.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201703150010.aspx
This incident is widely reported on Taiwan news channels and China.
How could a Taiwanese girl be detained for 35 hours for no offence? To detain someone for 35 hours is no small matter and require a high ranking officer to approve such detention. Malaysia should just refuse entry and close the case if this to be handled properly. However, the Malaysian custom officer saw this as an opportunity to demand money from the traveller.
Malaysia Boleh!
This incident is widely reported on Taiwan news channels and China.
How could a Taiwanese girl be detained for 35 hours for no offence? To detain someone for 35 hours is no small matter and require a high ranking officer to approve such detention. Malaysia should just refuse entry and close the case if this to be handled properly. However, the Malaysian custom officer saw this as an opportunity to demand money from the traveller.
Malaysia Boleh!
Japan navy carrier is sailing to Singapore.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-navy-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN16L0UM
Singapore has angered China that China commercial ships have stopped coming to our port. Instead of welcoming commercial vessels, SG is welcoming military vessel instead which doesn't contribute economically to SG.
Sigh! What is our government doing! Japan invaded and attacked SG before and we're welcoming its naval vessel to SG.
Singapore has angered China that China commercial ships have stopped coming to our port. Instead of welcoming commercial vessels, SG is welcoming military vessel instead which doesn't contribute economically to SG.
Sigh! What is our government doing! Japan invaded and attacked SG before and we're welcoming its naval vessel to SG.
China raises money market rates after FED move.
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2079352/china-raises-money-market-rates-second-time-year-pumps-new
What does this mean in the real economic term?
This action means China is draining cheap money out of the monetary system and replacing it with more expensive money.
This will help to curtail excessive spending and investment but also increase inflation.
What does this mean in the real economic term?
This action means China is draining cheap money out of the monetary system and replacing it with more expensive money.
This will help to curtail excessive spending and investment but also increase inflation.
Empty shopping malls are springing up in USA! The real economy is not doing well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/third-all-shopping-malls-are-projected-close-space-available-signs-go-all-over-ameri
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/malls
The real economy in USA is not doing as well as projected on wall street. QE only helps to propel wall street but not main street. Empty shopping malls have started to spring up in USA which depicts the real economic situation. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have also started to default significantly and commercial reits' prices have fallen. Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) are worse than 2008 (lehman bros' collapse) now and will explode anytime in USA. If China investors pull out of USA commercial properties, it will have a huge ripple effect that will cripple USA economy. This recession will be worse than in 2008.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/malls
The real economy in USA is not doing as well as projected on wall street. QE only helps to propel wall street but not main street. Empty shopping malls have started to spring up in USA which depicts the real economic situation. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have also started to default significantly and commercial reits' prices have fallen. Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) are worse than 2008 (lehman bros' collapse) now and will explode anytime in USA. If China investors pull out of USA commercial properties, it will have a huge ripple effect that will cripple USA economy. This recession will be worse than in 2008.
FED has hiked interest rate in march and 2 more hikes are expected in 2017.
The market reacted positively because of FED dovish statement of gradual pace of tightening in its future actions. Some were anticipating 4 hikes this year but FED only wanted 3 hikes instead which was a relief for the market. Furthermore, there may be some headwinds which will affect the economy like Trump's policies, North Korea, EU, etc. Therefore, FED is having a wait-and-see attitude and will play by ear to determine its interest rate policy.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
More financial experts are predicting a correction or crash for Dow Jones!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/trader-talk-are-you-ready-for-a-2000-point-drop-in-the-dow.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104341874&yptr=yahoo
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-guru-warns-the-dow-could-plunge-to-14800-and-todays-a-date-to-watch-2017-03-13
One said dow jones would drop 2,000 and another said dow jones would fall to 14,800 level. Look like the clairvoyants are in synchronization for once. They had a common consensus on the direction or trajectory of dow jones but not on the magnitude of the fall.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-guru-warns-the-dow-could-plunge-to-14800-and-todays-a-date-to-watch-2017-03-13
One said dow jones would drop 2,000 and another said dow jones would fall to 14,800 level. Look like the clairvoyants are in synchronization for once. They had a common consensus on the direction or trajectory of dow jones but not on the magnitude of the fall.
Swiber defaults on its bond for 20 March 2017.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/swiber-defaults-on-its-bond-coupon-payout-due-on-march-20
If swiber cannot even pay for this bond coupon, we can expect swiber to default on its DBS loan too. Look like DBS has more to write down for Swiber.
If swiber cannot even pay for this bond coupon, we can expect swiber to default on its DBS loan too. Look like DBS has more to write down for Swiber.
MAS warning: Do not trade in binary options
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/mas-dont-trade-binary-options-unregulated-platforms
Only trade in those derivatives by brokerages registered with MAS in Singapore. Skip those who are registered in overseas no matter how low is the brokerage fee.
Only trade in those derivatives by brokerages registered with MAS in Singapore. Skip those who are registered in overseas no matter how low is the brokerage fee.
Huat ah! Great news for Singapore!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/economists-upgrade-singapores-2017-growth-forecast-15-23
I hope that our government won't revise down the GDP growth forecast in the next quarter. I rather have no hope than to have a false hope.
I hope that our government won't revise down the GDP growth forecast in the next quarter. I rather have no hope than to have a false hope.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Chile has invited China to join TPP.
http://gbtimes.com/business/china-considers-joining-tpp-meeting-chile
Without USA, Japan will be the biggest economy in TPP and this gives Japan a lot of bargaining power. However, Chile has invited China to join TPP which will make China the largest economy in TPP and assume the leadership position.
If Japan makes things difficult for China to join TPP, China will not join TPP and focus on RCEP since it is leading RCEP.
Let's see how this will pan out.
Without USA, Japan will be the biggest economy in TPP and this gives Japan a lot of bargaining power. However, Chile has invited China to join TPP which will make China the largest economy in TPP and assume the leadership position.
If Japan makes things difficult for China to join TPP, China will not join TPP and focus on RCEP since it is leading RCEP.
Let's see how this will pan out.
Monday, March 13, 2017
China citizens are boycotting South Korea.
http://koreabizwire.com/thousands-of-chinese-cruise-passengers-refuse-to-disembark-in-jeju-amid-diplomatic-woes/77256
China cruise passengers refused to disembark in South Korea. Anti-sentiment has spread across Chinese citizens and they're not afraid to show it publicly.
China cruise passengers refused to disembark in South Korea. Anti-sentiment has spread across Chinese citizens and they're not afraid to show it publicly.
It's getting harder to save Ezra.
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/latest-claim-ezra-raises-more-concerns
DBS will be hurt more than OCBC when Ezra goes bankrupt. DBS has not factored in the reality of Ezra's bankruptcy.
DBS will be hurt more than OCBC when Ezra goes bankrupt. DBS has not factored in the reality of Ezra's bankruptcy.
Trade war between 2 titans (China & USA) is never good.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-says-trade-war-only-bring-pain-112926544.html
USA knows it won't win the trade war against China. Therefore, it is trying all avenues and prodding all weaknesses in China.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0217/c90000-9179472.html
USA steel industry couldn't handle competition, so it tried to accuse China of stealing trade secrets with fabricated facts which the USA government always did especially for Iraq war (no weapon of mass destruction found until today). After realising that this won't work, the USA steel industry withdrew its allegation and move on to anti-trust allegation.
If China did steal trade secrets from USA steel industry, USA won't back down at all.
USA knows it won't win the trade war against China. Therefore, it is trying all avenues and prodding all weaknesses in China.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0217/c90000-9179472.html
USA steel industry couldn't handle competition, so it tried to accuse China of stealing trade secrets with fabricated facts which the USA government always did especially for Iraq war (no weapon of mass destruction found until today). After realising that this won't work, the USA steel industry withdrew its allegation and move on to anti-trust allegation.
If China did steal trade secrets from USA steel industry, USA won't back down at all.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
What can Singapore learn from South Korea?
It is an extremely difficult and delicate balance to saunter the relationships between USA and China especially when these 2 titans are at odds with each other. Let’s look at the horrendous outcome for South Korea as our learning lesson for the future.
Synopsis:
South Korea tried to improve its economy by getting cozy with China with the intention to get favourable FTA from China but this economic motive angered USA especially when President Park visited China. In return, USA demanded South Korea to install THAAD to contain China in the name of self-defence against North Korea. South Korea was able to resist the USA pressure initially but cowered in because USA managed to get a handle on South Korea. In the end, South Korea was forced to install THAAD to pacify USA. However, the THAAD installation made China very furious and China retaliated with its economic prowess in staggered stages instead of full force with the hope of dissuading South Korea. Thereafter, South Korea president ended up being impeached.
The lesson learnt is we cannot follow South Korea’s footstep to get economic benefit from China and yet help USA to contain China. Nobody likes a snitch or a double-headed snake. China has shown the world blatantly that it won’t allow itself to be treated like that either.
China has deployed its long phased array radar to monitor South Korea.
China existing long phased array radar has a range of 3000km and its newest one is capable of 5500km range. China has deployed an existing long phased array radar with 3000km to monitor SK and Japan.
Picture of phased array radar
This kind of radar is capable of tracking multiple objects as small as a golf ball and is also able to jam other radar.
http://www.matthewaid.com/post/87975623676/china-may-be-jamming-new-long-range-surveillance
Picture of phased array radar
This kind of radar is capable of tracking multiple objects as small as a golf ball and is also able to jam other radar.
http://www.matthewaid.com/post/87975623676/china-may-be-jamming-new-long-range-surveillance
Saturday, March 11, 2017
China new shipping routes will bypass Singapore.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0310/c90000-9188766.html
China shippers won't be using Singapore as a transition hub even before the operation of Malacca new port. No wonder our port handling volume is declining.
China shippers won't be using Singapore as a transition hub even before the operation of Malacca new port. No wonder our port handling volume is declining.
Baltic dry index - 1086
Today, Friday, March 10 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 22 points, reaching 1086 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
=======================
Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
=======================
Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
US rig count - 768
The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 12 this week to 768.
A year ago, 480 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 617 rigs sought oil and 151 explored for natural gas this week.
Louisiana increased by five rigs, Colorado and Oklahoma each were up three, Ohio and Wyoming rose by two and California gained one.
Alaska declined by three and New Mexico dropped one.
Arkansas, Kansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
===========================
Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Friday, March 10, 2017
China stealth fighter J20 is officially in service now.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinas-first-stealth-fighter-enters-media-080648703.html
A big thank to USA for stirring troubles in South China Sea, China has to defend itself by expediting the developments of its airplanes. J20 is in service now!
A big thank to USA for stirring troubles in South China Sea, China has to defend itself by expediting the developments of its airplanes. J20 is in service now!
South Korean President has been impeached!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/south-korean-president-park-geun-hye-impeached-after-court-ruling-south-korean-president-park-geun-hye-avoids-impeachment-after-court-ruling.html
She has to leave the office immediately as the court has decided to impeach her. The deployment of THAAD defence system permanently in South Korea will rest on the next president.
She has to leave the office immediately as the court has decided to impeach her. The deployment of THAAD defence system permanently in South Korea will rest on the next president.
ECB is reducing bond purchases.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-further-reduce-bond-purchases-april-ifo-head-092935702--business.html
ECB is reducing bond purchases to contain inflation. In a nutshell, revising QE will increase interest rate.
EU's interest rate will increase, so will USA's interest rate. The high interest rate environment is coming.
ECB is reducing bond purchases to contain inflation. In a nutshell, revising QE will increase interest rate.
EU's interest rate will increase, so will USA's interest rate. The high interest rate environment is coming.
Thursday, March 9, 2017
We've been warning about rising inflation.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-february-producer-inflation-accelerates-fastest-since-september-014945289--finance.html
China inflation is rising fast and will emanate to the world. We've been warning about this since the last quarter of 2016.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html
China inflation is rising fast and will emanate to the world. We've been warning about this since the last quarter of 2016.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Building structure on mars erased by NASA. Why?
South Korea will enter economic downturn in 2017 - Part 4
Lotte has about USD$8.5b investments in China and Lotte is expected to suffer a big chunk of loss in China. The next to fall will be Samsung as China citizens are boycotting South Korean products.
Furthermore, Foxconn and TSMC are trying to decimate Samsung by combining efforts to buy Toshiba's nand flash business. Once nand flash business falls into the hands of TSMC & Foxconn, Samsung business will be greatly affected as Apple will no longer use Samsung as its supplier because Apple views Samsung as a competitor.
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Israel! Please stop your aggression!
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/israeli-minister-us-warned-israel-annexing-west-bank-101039869--politics.html
After getting a UN's censure on Israel, USA had switched side finally.
After getting a UN's censure on Israel, USA had switched side finally.
Australia doesn't want to get involved in South China Sea patrol. Why?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-indonesia-australia-idUSKBN16E0D0
The real reason is that Australia also ignored PCA ruling in favour of East Timor and didn't recognise PCA jurisdiction. Therefore, it's improper for Australia to continue to support PCA ruling in South China Sea or it would face a backlash.
The real reason is that Australia also ignored PCA ruling in favour of East Timor and didn't recognise PCA jurisdiction. Therefore, it's improper for Australia to continue to support PCA ruling in South China Sea or it would face a backlash.
North Korea fired 4 missiles during US-SK joint military exercise.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN16C0YU
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39175704
The US and South Korea started its massive joint military exercise involving 300,000 personnel and latest radars such as X-band and THAAD. However, North Korea fired 4 missiles during the joint exercise as a sign of protest. The NK missiles revealed critical flaws in the radars as they were not able to detect the types of NK missiles. This put to questions about the effectiveness of THAAD defence system because it couldn't detect the types of missiles fired.
When you cannot detect the types of missiles, you cannot intercept them effectively especially for multiple-head missiles because the multiple-head missiles can contain real and dummy warheads.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39175704
The US and South Korea started its massive joint military exercise involving 300,000 personnel and latest radars such as X-band and THAAD. However, North Korea fired 4 missiles during the joint exercise as a sign of protest. The NK missiles revealed critical flaws in the radars as they were not able to detect the types of NK missiles. This put to questions about the effectiveness of THAAD defence system because it couldn't detect the types of missiles fired.
When you cannot detect the types of missiles, you cannot intercept them effectively especially for multiple-head missiles because the multiple-head missiles can contain real and dummy warheads.
Monday, March 6, 2017
Trade war between South Korea and China has started!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-act-against-chinas-discrimination-against-south-020440494--business.html
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/koreas-lotte-says-4-retail-stores-china-closed-035044241--business.html
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinese-protest-against-south-koreas-lotte-100944110.html
The trade war is due to the stupid THAAD defence system which is ineffective against low-altitude rockets. It is no joke when 1.4b people rallied against South Korea.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/koreas-lotte-says-4-retail-stores-china-closed-035044241--business.html
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinese-protest-against-south-koreas-lotte-100944110.html
The trade war is due to the stupid THAAD defence system which is ineffective against low-altitude rockets. It is no joke when 1.4b people rallied against South Korea.
Kudos to China for containing its defence budget.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-defense-budget-rises-slowest-pace-decades-report-045618739.html
China's defence budget: USD$151b.
USA's defence budget: USD$590b.
See who is the threat to the world?
China's defence budget: USD$151b.
USA's defence budget: USD$590b.
See who is the threat to the world?
Trump is busy bickering with Obama.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-renews-attack-obama-124628140.html
How will he have the time and effort to focus on the economy?
How will he have the time and effort to focus on the economy?
USA may have sub-prime again if Chinese investors exited US market.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/coming-home-roost-chinese-property-210006427.html
There'll be an oversupply of housing and this will crash the housing market when Chinese investors exited US market. However, Asia will benefit out of this turmoil.
There'll be an oversupply of housing and this will crash the housing market when Chinese investors exited US market. However, Asia will benefit out of this turmoil.
Sunday, March 5, 2017
China has cut GDP growth for 2017. How will it impact the world?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-idUSKBN16C007
IMF forecasts world GDP to be 3.1% for 2017 and China alone will contribute 39% of that 3.1% whereas USA will only contribute less than 10%. Therefore, any decline in China GDP will affect the world more than USA.
http://english.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/01/16/content_281475542971540.htm
IMF forecasts world GDP to be 3.1% for 2017 and China alone will contribute 39% of that 3.1% whereas USA will only contribute less than 10%. Therefore, any decline in China GDP will affect the world more than USA.
http://english.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/01/16/content_281475542971540.htm
Qualitative vs Quantitative analysis? Which is more important?
Quantitative analysis is about analyzing the facts and figures from the financial statements to derive a fair value on the company stock whereas qualitative analysis is about analyzing the business model and non-arithmetic aspects of the company and its industry to assess the feasibility and sustainability of the company.
Many financial analysts focus on quantitative analysis and neglect the qualitative aspects which often result in misjudgments.
For example, financial analysts like to tout shipping trusts to retail investors as value investment instruments because of their constant distribution yields that are akin to bond yields or fixed deposits. They always use quantitative analyses to justify for buying shipping trusts due to the long-term chartered contracts (7-10 years) and high distribution yields of 5-7%.
However, if we use qualitative analysis on shipping trusts, we will discover that shipping trusts cannot withstand economic downturns and recessions. The business model of shipping trusts is based on ship acquisitions to secure ever rising chartering rates to maintain the high distribution yields. The acquisition limit is usually restricted by its loan-to-value ratio rule that is around 70%. In a nutshell, the bank will only loan up to 70% of the ship value. Although shipping trusts usually require their customers to lock in long-term chartering contracts of between 7-10 years, the customers won’t honour these contracts during economic downturns or recessions because many of these customers cannot survive such hardships. When the customers start to breach these long-term contracts, shipping trusts are left with an oversupply of ships that are berthing and doing nothing. Then, the shipping trusts will be forced to sell the idling ships at lower rates and these ship values will decline significantly. Banks are usually cognizant of the latest developments in the shipping industry and will demand the shipping trusts to top up the differences in the fallen ship values. Conversely, some banks will even recall the ship loans to cut down their risk exposures to the shipping industry. All these events will start a vicious cycle in the shipping industry, which will lead to tremendous fall in shipping trusts’ prices and distribution yields. However, many financial analysts will omit these cold hard facts and information to the retail investors by not doing a proper qualitative analysis.
Therefore, you better think twice when you read analysts’ reports without proper qualitative analyses.
Saturday, March 4, 2017
Recession is coming this year!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-hike-cycle-typically-lead-to-recession-160938484.html
FED rate hikes will cause recession according to historical records.
FED rate hikes will cause recession according to historical records.
US interest rate could rise to 6% in 2 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategist-says-trump-policies-could-132906015.html
Yellen has indicated that she will raise more rates. This means she will counter Trump's fiscal policy with more interest rate hikes to rein in his expansionary plan.
Yellen has indicated that she will raise more rates. This means she will counter Trump's fiscal policy with more interest rate hikes to rein in his expansionary plan.
USA march rate hike is a fait accompli.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-03/yellen-hints-fed-may-need-more-2017-rate-hikes-than-penciled-in?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo
Janet Yellen has indicated that she will raise more rates in 2017.
Janet Yellen has indicated that she will raise more rates in 2017.
Baltic dry index - 939
Today, Friday, March 03 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 35 points, reaching 939 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
US rig count - 756
HOUSTON (AP) - The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by two this week to 756.
A year ago, 489 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 609 rigs sought oil and 146 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas increased by six rigs, North Dakota was up three, Louisiana gained two and Utah one.
Oklahoma declined by three, Pennsylvania and Wyoming each dropped two and Alaska, Colorado and New Mexico were off one apiece.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, Ohio and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Friday, March 3, 2017
Thursday, March 2, 2017
What stocks to buy in an interest rate rising environment?
In financial doctrine, we learn that a stable cashflow (low-volatility) company will be highly sensitive to interest rate compared to a high volatility company. This means that low volatility cashflow will be positively correlated and high volatility cashflow will be negatively correlated to the interest rate.
As banks and insurance companies have relatively stable cashflows, these companies will benefit in an interest rising environment.
Previous related post:
https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/02/who-will-benefit-in-high-interest-rate.html
As banks and insurance companies have relatively stable cashflows, these companies will benefit in an interest rising environment.
Previous related post:
https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/02/who-will-benefit-in-high-interest-rate.html
US stock markets are high on drugs now!
USA fundamentals have not changed much on the main street but wall street's euphoria is based on sentiments towards Trump's speeches insofar. Trump's fiscal stimulus will boost the economy but this ephemeral will be negated by Janet Yellen's rate rises and the stock markets will come crashing down hard. The US stock markets are like a house of cards now.
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Advancement in robotic technology. What the latest robot can do!
Japan wants to tell USA to respect WTO rules.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-tell-u-respect-wto-rules-pm-abe-045130597--business.html
What a joke!
There is no way for Japan to tell USA what to do. It's always USA telling Japan what to do.
What a joke!
There is no way for Japan to tell USA what to do. It's always USA telling Japan what to do.
Ezra's ECS bankruptcy will affect DBS & OCBC.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ezra-hldgs-affiliate-bankruptcy-idUSKBN16728C
DBS & OCBC have loan exposures to ECS. Ezra will have to write off its ECS investment of about USD$170m (40% stake in ecs). DBS's exposure is about USD$84.6m and OCBC's exposure is about USD$13.1m.
DBS & OCBC have loan exposures to ECS. Ezra will have to write off its ECS investment of about USD$170m (40% stake in ecs). DBS's exposure is about USD$84.6m and OCBC's exposure is about USD$13.1m.
UN is an useless organization now!
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/russia-china-veto-un-resolution-syria-sanctions-172339348.html
If the west especially USA don't work with China and Russia, UN will be a useless organization that cannot get work done because there must be not a single veto in any UN decision. When there are 2 vetoes from Russia & China, UN cannot carry out its ruling.
If the west especially USA don't work with China and Russia, UN will be a useless organization that cannot get work done because there must be not a single veto in any UN decision. When there are 2 vetoes from Russia & China, UN cannot carry out its ruling.
WTO is fast losing its credibility.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-ignore-wto-rulings-sees-anti-u-030245789--finance.html
WTO refused to honour its own contract with China to grant the market economy status automatically after 15 years. By setting such a bad example to the world, USA is just following suit by ignoring WTO rulings.
Why must other countries abide by WTO ruling when WTO refuses to abide by its own contract?
WTO refused to honour its own contract with China to grant the market economy status automatically after 15 years. By setting such a bad example to the world, USA is just following suit by ignoring WTO rulings.
Why must other countries abide by WTO ruling when WTO refuses to abide by its own contract?
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