Baltic dry index - 912

Today, Friday, May 26 2017, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 6 points, reaching 912 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 908

The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. rose by seven this week to 908.

A year ago, 404 rigs were active.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 722 rigs sought oil and 185 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.

Colorado added five rigs while Alaska, New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma each gained one.

Texas lost one rig.

Arkansas, California, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming were all unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Singapore government doesn't understand SG-China relationship.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/don-t-be-rattled-by-tactics-to-exaggerate-news-on-singapore-8887510

This is precisely why SG was taken aback when HK detained our tanks.  SG government didn't even think that HK would do that after making so many anti-China remarks.  Do you really think that China will take it lightly that we conduct military exercise in South China Sea which is at the doorstep of China?  C'mon, Singapore! Please wake up!

Travel alert to UK issued by Russia.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/russians-warned-against-visiting-uk-over-terror-threat-082953875.html

Visit UK at your own risk!

China's total debt VS USA's total debt. Don't be fooled by the western media.

The western media like to spread fears about China's debt problem and they do this by quoting China's total debt in their analyses.  The western media had been predicting the China collapse for a few years already but China grew stronger economically instead.

Total debt = National debt + Corporation debt.

China's total debt = USD$4.3T (national debt) + USD$25.6T (corporate debt) = USD$30T
China GDP = USD$11T
Total debt to GDP = 270%
Foreign reserve = USD$3T

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China

USA's total debt = USD$19.85 (national debt) + USD$29T (corporate debt) = USD$49T
USA GDP = USD$18T
Total debt to GDP = 270%
Foreign reserve = USD$116B

However, McKinsey estimated that USA total debt to GDP ratio was at 331%.

https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2016/01/29/the-29-trillion-corporate-debt-hangover-that-could-spark-a-recession/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-china-debt/

The western media like to focus on China's total debt vs USA's national debt when making a comparison between these 2 countries.  The actual fact is both countries have similar total debt to GDP ratio.  However, most China total debt is locally funded whilst USA total debt is foreign funded.  This will make a big difference during any financial crisis as foreign investors will force you for repayments compared to local investors.  Furthermore, China has USD$3T in reserves compared to USD$116B in USA and China's economy is growing at twice of USA's.  Therefore, China's economy will be bigger than USA's in the future.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/search?q=china+economy+will+be+bigger+than+usa

Singapore stock calls for 26 May 2017

USA doesn't have any qualms at all for killing civilians in middle east.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/over-100-civilians-killed-mosul-blast-march-u-161116613.html

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-led-strikes-kill-35-civilians-east-syria-002816114.html

However, USA is quick to pinpoint on others for killing civilians especially Russia in middle east.  In the future, Russia can just copy the justifications given by USA when it kills civilians accidentally in any strikes.

How will the reduction in FED 4.5T affect the real economy?

US Fed has USD$4.5T of balance sheet which composes of $2.46T of bonds and $1.77T of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

As the MBS are mostly longer dated derivatives of at least 10 years, FED won't unwind these MBS in the short run.  Therefore, FED will just let the shorter dated bonds expire and won't reinvest the proceeds into the bond market.  About 50% of the bonds will expire within the next 5 years which amount to USD$1.2T and this means the money market will have a capital outflow of $1.2T.  Furthermore, USA will hike interest rates for the next few years as stated by FED which is tantamount to price hikes in the real economy.  The higher interest rates will cause USD to appreciate so that the purchasing power won't be eroded.  In other words, inflation can be contained in this way.

To surmise, the reduction in money supply and interest rate increments will cause USD to appreciate in the next few years.

OMG! Anti-Singapore propaganda is being broadcasted on China media.

No wonder PM Lee was not invited to the one-belt-one-road summit.  It is useless for 100% of Singapore (5.3m people) to be anti-China because just 10% of China (140m people) hatred of Singapore will drown us already.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-singapore-kick-off-major-naval-exercise-in-south-china-sea/articleshow/58736322.cms

Our government is stupid to conduct a military exercise with India in South China Sea.  Can you imagine China conducting a military exercise just at our doorstep? We are really asking for trouble!

Singapore stock calls for 25 May 2017

Huat ah! Singapore GDP is growing so well!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-posts-smaller-gdp-contraction-000011173.html

Look like this year will be a year of promotions and salary increments for Singaporeans.  Well done, Singapore!

China will definitely retaliate against this US incursion. Let's see!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-says-navy-ship-sails-near-south-china-044856326.html

Pacific Commander Harris is really stirring troubles in South China Sea.  He deserves to be punished for heightening tension in South China Sea.

Moody's downgraded China credit rating for its own interest.

Basically, Moody's wanted to impede the success of China-HK bond trading link as it didn't participate in the US$9.5T China bond market.  Moody's downgrade of China maybe for a political reason too.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/17/china-hong-kong-bond-trading-scheme-approved-by-regulators.html

There is no convincing reason to downgrade China credit rating while USA maintains AAA rating.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ratings-moody-s-idUSKCN0S11AM20151007

USA has a national debt of USD$19.85T without many foreign reserves.

http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

China has a national debt of USD$4.3T and USD$3T foreign reserves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China

USA debt-to-GDP is 106%.

http://marketrealist.com/2017/03/how-big-is-the-us-debt-compared-to-other-nations/

China debt-to-GDP is 41%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China

It looks like only the USA can take on debts but other countries cannot because USA is the only resilient country in the world.  Therefore, other countries will collapse if they take on debts because they're not resilient.

Does this make any sense at all?

I hate it when credit rating companies give biased ratings.  US credit rating agencies tend to give better ratings for USA companies.  Just look at Lehman Brothers credit rating given by Moody's before the big collapse.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/30/credit-rating-agency-anal_n_305587.html

The truth is out. USA really tried to assassinate North Korea Kim.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/807256/North-Korea-Kim-Jong-Un-CIA-South-Korea-assassinate-kill-Nuclear-weapons?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-world-news+%28Express+%3A%3A+World+Feed%29

North Korea Kim released evidences about USA & South Korea trying to assassinate him and how NK uncovered the plot.

USA is a great liar and has been fabricating false intelligence for its own interest.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/north-korea-kim-accused-cia-of-trying.html

What's the motive for Manchester bombing?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/manchester-arena-terror-attack-salman-abedi-ariana-grande-victims/

The ulterior motive is to disrupt the June election in UK and it is definitely a terrorist attack.  UK has to establish who was behind the bombing.  Although ISIS has claimed credit for the attack, the terrorist is believed to be from Al Qaeda cell.

Singapore stock calls for 24 May 2017

Local brokerage houses have imposed trading restriction on Noble.

This will definitely cause liquidity to dry up and noble will continue on its downward trajectory in the future.

If you look at historical records, any stock will fall after the trading restrictions are imposed by the local brokerage houses.

PLA General: We must strike back at Singapore!

http://www.theindependent.sg/pla-general-we-must-strike-back-at-singapore/

We knew that anti-Singapore sentiment had taken root in China already in our previous articles.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/10/death-knell-is-bellowing-for-singapore.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/china-gave-singapore-stern-warning-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/singapore-image-in-china-is-so-rotten.html

However, to have a China general to speak out so openly is not a simple issue as he must have the blessing of China government.

We need to recognise that China no longer trusts Singapore and we must not do more to antagonize China or we'll suffer a major backlash because USA won't give SG any economic boost when SG-China trading starts to decline.

Energy revolution is coming by 2030.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1047725.shtml

China will start commercial mining of methane hydrates in South China Sea and the gas reserves may last up to 1000 years.  Extraction cost is estimated to be only USD$0.087 per cubic metre because no refinery is needed.  The crude oil industry will lose a BIG customer soon.

China government destroyed CIA spying operations in China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html

I must say that China is very good in anti-spy operation because it manages to thwart illegal and covert spying operations in China.

Therefore, USA cannot accuse China of spying when it also spies on China.