Stock calls for 13 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy
03/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.945	0.97	Hold	PER10x FY20
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.3	28.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.61	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.205	0.24	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.02	1.22	Buy
03/13/19	Lim & Tan	Hi-P	1.75	0	Avoid	overvalued
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.79	1.06	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.85	0.94	Buy
03/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.57	2.8	Hold	Buy @ $2.35
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.25	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.555	0.65	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.74	4.1	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.7	0.8	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.04	29.8	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.24	3.63	Buy

SGX's dream to be a derivatives exchange is being shattered by HKEX.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exchange-faces-threat-hkex-china-share-move-063117446.html

SGX is no longer a securities exchange favoured by IPO aspirants. Therefore, it seeks to boost its derivatives business to replace its securities market.  However, this strategy is being shattered by HKEX now.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/death-knell-is-bellowing-for-sgx-as.html

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.43	0.51	Buy	PB1x
02/13/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.37	0.51	Buy
02/22/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.39	0.48	Buy	PB1.4x
04/04/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.35	0.32	Hold	PB1x
05/10/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.345	0.32	Hold	PB1x FY18
08/10/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.305	0.32	Hold	PB1x FY18
11/05/18	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.24	0.25	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.56	0.74	Buy
04/04/18	Soochow SSD	Oxley	0.495	0.63	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
04/24/18	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.485	0.68	Not Rated	RNAV (35% discount)
06/04/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.46	0.56	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
07/09/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.345	0.34	Hold
07/12/18	Tayona	Oxley	0.36	0.435	Overweight
08/27/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.35	0.36	Hold
09/06/18	Kim Eng	Oxley	0.345	0.36	Hold
12/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.295	0.64	Buy

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 12 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/19	Tayona	CNMC	0.21	0.31	Overweight
03/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.69	1.85	Hold	Buy @ $1.65
03/12/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.51	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
03/12/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.1	0	Hold
03/12/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.44	1.6	Buy
03/12/19	Citibank	SGX	7.46	7	Sell
03/12/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.93	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/12/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.2	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
03/12/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.2	3.6	Buy

Failed bike sharing business again!

https://www.asiaone.com/singapore/end-life-cycle-mobike-calls-it-quits-singapore

This is a flawed business concept and we've stated this many times. I'm sick of explaining this again.

Please read our previous posts below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/ofo-bike-sharing-has-failed-in-usa.html

SIA had no safety concern for its passengers.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-grounds-boeing-737-max-aircraft-caas-silkair-11334980

It was sad to see that our national carrier (SIA-Silkair) had no safety concern for its passengers until our CAAS took action to ban Boeing 737-Max.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/silkair-sia-boeing-737-max-aircraft-operation-ethiopia-airlines-11330734

Kudos to CAAS and Shame on SIA!

SMRT has MRT door safety issue!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/smrt-station-manager-suspended-train-moves-off-door-open-033702093.html

Look like the door issue is a common safety problem for MRT.  Even the new MRT has this door safety issue.

We had highlighted this before.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/smrt-safety-is-in-doubt-again.html

Singapore is heading towards a political collision course with Malaysia in the future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/malaysias-mahathir-says-he-will-side-with-china-over-us-scmp.html

Malaysia has chosen to side with China when the inevitable occurrence comes.  What about Singapore? Whose side will we be on?

SG is very likely to side the USA in our view. Why?

This is because most of our military weapons are US-based including our fighter jets.  Our F15, F16 and F35 won't have the spare parts to fly if we side with China.  Our missiles defense systems also cannot work when we are not in the same camp as the US since we are using GPS and not Beidou.

Without our military defense, we will be very vulnerable and Malaysia can just walk over us.  If our government doesn't diversify our military defense, we will be locked down forever by the USA.

However, we will be at war with Malaysia when we are not in the same camp as Malaysia.

It is time to purchase Russian and Chinese military defense systems.

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.855	0.91	Buy	DDM
01/04/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.65	Sell
01/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.87	0.89	Add	DDM
01/05/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.875	0.83	Hold
01/31/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0.93	Buy	DCF
01/31/18	Lim & Tan	OUE Hospitality	0.885	0	Hold
02/20/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.845	0.95	Buy
04/04/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.795	0.95	Buy
04/10/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.92	Add
04/17/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.815	0.93	Buy
05/03/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.92	Add	DDM
05/03/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.95	Buy	DDM
05/03/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.82	0.84	Hold	Buy @ $0.78 or lower
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.765	0.93	Buy
07/30/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.89	Add	DDM
07/30/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.825	0.9	Buy	DCF
07/31/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.805	0.79	Hold
09/20/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE Hospitality	0.715	0.65	Sell
10/04/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
10/10/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.79	Buy
10/16/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.8	Buy	DDM
11/08/18	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Add	DDM
11/08/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.8	Buy
11/08/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.85	Buy	DCF
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.69	0.79	Buy
11/19/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	665	0.77	Buy
12/06/18	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.77	Buy
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.67	Hold
02/01/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.75	Hold	DDM
02/01/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.75	0.69	Hold
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.755	0.73	Hold	DCF
03/19/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.715	0.73	Hold
03/23/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.75	Hold	DDM
05/11/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.72	0.68	Hold
08/02/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.695	0.73	Hold
08/03/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.75	Hold	DDM
08/03/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.69	0.67	Hold	DCF
09/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.6	Hold	DDM
09/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.66	0.67	Hold
11/09/18	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.475	0.48	Hold
11/12/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.47	Hold	DCF
11/12/18	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.465	0.57	Hold	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy

OUE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/18	OCBC	OUE	1.93	2.28	Buy
05/14/18	OCBC	OUE	1.81	2.25	Buy
09/06/18	OCBC	OUE	1.57	2.25	Buy
09/25/18	Deutsche	OUE	1.54	3	Buy
11/13/18	OCBC	OUE	1.37	2.25	Buy
11/19/18	Deutsche	OUE	1.41	3	Buy
02/28/19	OCBC	OUE	1.66	2.32	Buy

Stock calls for 11 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	phillip	Banyan Tree	0.57	0.76	Accumulate	Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19
03/11/19	CIMB	DBS	25.06	29	Add
03/11/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PER10x F20
03/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.05	12	Hold
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts
03/11/19	OCBC	Singtel	2.94	3.79	Buy
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.94	3.09	Neutral	Sum of parts
03/11/19	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.94	0	Hold
03/11/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.5	1.53	Hold	Ringgit target $4.60, PER24x CY20
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.205	0.32	Buy	PER10x FY20
03/11/19	CIMB	UOB	24.91	29	Add

What is Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)?

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/tltro/html/index.en.html

TLTRO is basically a quantitative easing policy.

The 1st TLTRO started in June 2014 and ended in June 2018.  After the 1st TLTRO ended, the stock markets fared badly at the end of 2018.  Therefore, we could see that TLTRO had a great impact on the stock markets.

The 2nd TLTRO started in March 2016 and would end in March 2020.  After seeing the repercussion for the end of the 1st TLTRO, the ECB has decided to launch a 3rd TLTRO to prevent a repeat of the previous outcome for the end of the 2nd TLTRO.

Why? This is because the 2nd TLTRO is much bigger than the first one.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-explainer/explainer-what-is-the-fuss-about-european-central-bank-tltro-loans-idUSKCN1QL1HP

The total outstanding credit amount stood at EUR$761b as at end March 2017.

George Soros has just ditched crypto (bitcoin).

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/09/precious-metals-firm-drops-crypto-is-the-bitcoin-digital-gold-narrative-in-trouble/

When George Soros won't accept crypto like bitcoin, he is signaling to others that bitcoin has no future.

Even the Japanese giant, Mizuho, has developed a digital token based on the QR code system and not blockchain.

https://www.coinspeaker.com/japan-mizuho-j-coin-cryptocurrency/

We had stated previously that reputable financial firms won't use any public blockchain because of security, private and confidential issues.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html

HKMA has intervened in HKD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-steps-defend-peg-224736691.html

The HKMA has to either intervened in the currency market or up the interest rates.  As the interest rate hikes will disrupt the property market, it is safer to intervene in the currency market.

If you want to know more about the HKD depreciation, please read our previous post below.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/hong-kong-dollar-has-been-depreciating.html

Baltic dry index - 657

Today, Thursday, March 07 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 7 points, reaching 657 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

===================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1038

The US drilling rig count is down 9 units to 1,038 rigs working for the week ended Mar. 1, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is up 57 units from the 981 rigs working this time a year ago.

Week-over-week, 11 fewer rigs were drilling on land, bringing that count 1,015. Three additional rigs were counted offshore, bringing the total number of units drilling to 22. Inland waters dropped a single unit, leaving 1 rig working for the week.

US oil-directed rigs dropped 10 units from last week to 843 units working but remained up from the 800 rigs drilling for oil this week a year ago. Gas-directed rigs were up a single unit at 195, and up from the 181 units drilling for gas a year ago.

Among the major oil and gas-producing states, California, with 15 rigs working for the week, saw the largest increase. The only other addition was a single-unit gain in Louisiana, bringing the state’s total to 65 rigs drilling.

Five states were unchanged this week: Pennsylvania, 44; Colorado, 34; West Virginia, 19; Ohio, 18; and Utah, 8.

Texas, at 503 rigs, dropped 5 units from last week. Oklahoma, 115, and Alaska, 11, each dropped 2 units.

Three states dropped a single unit this week: New Mexico, 107; North Dakota, 56; and Wyoming, 36.

Canada dropped a single unit for the week ended Mar. 1. With 211 rigs working, the count is less than the 302 units drilling this week a year ago.

The number of oil-directed rigs in Canada fell by 4, bringing the count to 140 rigs for the week. Gas-directed rigs were up 3 to 71 units.

=====================

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Old Chang Kee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.745	0.98	Buy	DCF
03/19/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.76	0.98	Buy
04/16/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.775	0.98	Buy
05/31/18	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.755	0.98	Buy	DCF, PER22.6x FY19