| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/28/19 | Lim & Tan | Hong Leong Finance | 2.71 | 0 | Buy | |
| 04/26/19 | Lim & Tan | Hong Leong Finance | 2.8 | 0 | Buy |
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls
Ho Bee - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/26/19 | Lim & Tan | Ho Bee | 2.51 | 0 | Buy | |
| 03/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Ho Bee | 2.5 | 2.79 | Buy | RNAV (30% discount) |
| 04/01/19 | Lim & Tan | Ho Bee | 2.52 | 0 | Buy |
Stock calls for 21 May 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | China Everbright | 0.385 | 0.5 | Buy | PER9x |
| 05/21/19 | Amfrasers | CSE Global | 0.49 | 0.58 | Buy | Sum of parts, PER12.5x FY19, PB2.1x FY19 |
| 05/21/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.4 | 2.6 | Buy | |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.44 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | SATS | 5.08 | 5.47 | Accumulate | DCF, PER24x FY19 |
| 05/21/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SATS | 5.08 | 5.05 | Hold | |
| 05/21/19 | DBS Vickers | SATS | 5.08 | 5.44 | Buy | DCF & PER22x FY20 |
| 05/21/19 | phillip | SHS | 0.174 | 0 | Cease coverage | |
| 05/21/19 | OCBC | SIA | 9.3 | 11.02 | Buy | |
| 05/21/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SIA | 9.3 | 9.6 | Hold | |
| 05/21/19 | DBS Vickers | SIA | 9.3 | 10.8 | Buy | PB0.95x FY20 |
| 05/21/19 | CIMB | UMS | 0.62 | 0.55 | Reduce |
US companies petition to Trump to stop the tariffs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/nike-adidas-sign-letter-to-trump-urging-against-tariffs-on-footwear.html
The US says that China will be hurt more because of the tariffs and the US will win the trade war.
If this is true, why are the US companies complaining on behalf of China?
Are these US companies being paid by China government?
The US says that China will be hurt more because of the tariffs and the US will win the trade war.
If this is true, why are the US companies complaining on behalf of China?
Are these US companies being paid by China government?
Singapore is slowing down rapidly.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-first-quarter-gdp-1-2-2019-growth-000244709--business.html
Singapore 1st QTR GDP growth is almost at a decade low.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html
When our government suddenly spoke for China, I knew something was amiss. I expected the weak GDP number to surface soon after our FM's speech.
Singapore 1st QTR GDP growth is almost at a decade low.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html
When our government suddenly spoke for China, I knew something was amiss. I expected the weak GDP number to surface soon after our FM's speech.
Do not subscribe to Luckin coffee ipo! Why? - Part 2
We told you guys not to subscribe and we're proven right.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/do-not-subscribe-to-luckin-coffee-ipo.html
Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 2
Black line: USD/CNY (RMB)
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html
As stated previously, China A50 and RMB have an inverse relationship.
Why?
The rationale is very simple. When RMB depreciates, it will result in investors' forex losses and this will prompt investors to pull money out of China A50. When the investors sell China A50, they will convert the RMB back into their local currencies and result in weakening RMB.
Therefore, if investors can predict the future RMB trajectory, they can predict the future movement of China A50.
RMB is expected to depreciate in a US-China trade war. Therefore, the decline in China A50 is a known consequence.
Monday, May 20, 2019
The western semiconductor shares are falling.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chips-down-huawei-u-blacklisting-knocks-eu-semiconductor-090003209--finance.html
The western semiconductor shares are falling because of Trump.
These western chip-makers are losing the Chinese market permanently and no other market can make up for the losses.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/huawei-will-replace-us21b-chip-orders.html
The western chip-maker share prices are highly overvalued without Chinese market revenues.
The western semiconductor shares are falling because of Trump.
These western chip-makers are losing the Chinese market permanently and no other market can make up for the losses.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/huawei-will-replace-us21b-chip-orders.html
The western chip-maker share prices are highly overvalued without Chinese market revenues.
Huawei has revealed its own mobile operating system (Hongmeng).
https://www.huaweicentral.com/hongmeng-is-huaweis-first-ever-self-developed-operating-system/
Many analysts didn't believe that Huawei had its own mobile system. Huawei had just released the name of its operating system (Hongmeng) and started to develop it since 2012. The US has underestimated the Chinese. The Chinese have a saying - Always prepare for a rainy day!
Google will regret its move to restrict Huawei to use google because Hongmeng is developed by using Linux and not Java (Android). This will prompt many developers to develop applications using Linux because it is a truly decentralized programming language. Besides, Linux is widely used in the networking servers sector.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/it-will-be-hard-for-google-to-access.html
Many analysts didn't believe that Huawei had its own mobile system. Huawei had just released the name of its operating system (Hongmeng) and started to develop it since 2012. The US has underestimated the Chinese. The Chinese have a saying - Always prepare for a rainy day!
Google will regret its move to restrict Huawei to use google because Hongmeng is developed by using Linux and not Java (Android). This will prompt many developers to develop applications using Linux because it is a truly decentralized programming language. Besides, Linux is widely used in the networking servers sector.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/it-will-be-hard-for-google-to-access.html
It will be hard for Google to access the Chinese market in the future.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-alphabet-exclusive/exclusive-google-suspends-some-business-with-huawei-after-trump-blacklist-source-idUSKCN1SP0NB
This proves that Google is just another state agent like MS.
Therefore, Huawei should focus on supporting another open-sourced mobile platform. I would recommend Huawei to work with Linux mobile platform because Linux has built up the mobile platform and community already and it will sync with the desktop and server platforms without a hitch. There also won't be any intrusive mobile advertisements like the android system.
https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/pureos-mobile/
Yes! I'm a Linux supporter and I would like my smartphone to be on Linux too.
This proves that Google is just another state agent like MS.
Therefore, Huawei should focus on supporting another open-sourced mobile platform. I would recommend Huawei to work with Linux mobile platform because Linux has built up the mobile platform and community already and it will sync with the desktop and server platforms without a hitch. There also won't be any intrusive mobile advertisements like the android system.
https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/pureos-mobile/
Yes! I'm a Linux supporter and I would like my smartphone to be on Linux too.
South Korea is giving a stupid excuse to switch to linux.
https://www.engadget.com/2019/05/19/south-korea-linux-switch/?yptr=yahoo
South Korea is a developed and rich nation, unlike some developing countries. Therefore, South Korea is switching to Linux because of security risks posed by Microsoft (MS). Coincidentally, SK is dumping MS after our posting about MS security risk. The IT cost is never a concern to SK because it pays a lot more to keep US forces in the country.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-going-to-impose-blanket-ban.html
SK just doesn't want to be held hostage by the US and give the NSA & FBI unbridled access to the sensitive intelligence through MS.
South Korea is a developed and rich nation, unlike some developing countries. Therefore, South Korea is switching to Linux because of security risks posed by Microsoft (MS). Coincidentally, SK is dumping MS after our posting about MS security risk. The IT cost is never a concern to SK because it pays a lot more to keep US forces in the country.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-going-to-impose-blanket-ban.html
SK just doesn't want to be held hostage by the US and give the NSA & FBI unbridled access to the sensitive intelligence through MS.
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Will US attack Iran? Yes!
From my understanding of the US unilateralism culture, the US will launch some precision types of attacks against Iran. In other words, the US will engage Iran in some restricted battles and not launch a full-scale war against Iran if history is a prologue.
Why?
The US will always engage wars with oil-rich countries and Iran happens to be an oil-producing nation. The US sanctions against Iran will not yield the desired outcome that the US wanted. Please see the example below. Therefore, the US has decided to take some further action.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010478/iranian-fuel-oil-shipped-violation-us-sanctions-unloaded-china
The US has a plan to deploy 120,000 military personnel and aircraft carrier strike force to the Middle East and this is not a show of force to deter Iran from carrying some threats against US targets in the region. This is the usual US modus operandi (Intelligence fabrication and battle preparation).
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/us-troops-middle-east-iran/index.html
https://www.apnews.com/c13d7c2ce4a1429bad83d5482f9193f3
The large deployment is similar to the force size deployed to attack Iraq in the past. However, Iran is much larger than Iraq and the US will not fight the war with Iran on the ground but will launch air attacks to decimate the nuclear facilities and key installations.
The US will be able to tighten the sea surveillance and make things difficult for Iran to ship its oil with the large deployment. However, Iran can still sell its oil through Turkey and Pakistan. We must not forget that Pakistan has an oil pipeline that connects to China and China will continue to buy oil from Iran. Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to stop Iran oil trading by land because Pakistan and Turkey are at loggerheads with the US.
In order to remove the threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US will definitely attack Iran to eliminate the threat permanently. Although Iran and the US declared that they didn't want to fight with each other, both nations were just engaging in deceptions to distract each other but were, in fact, preparing for the ultimate battles. After the restricted battles, the US will demand Iran to come to the negotiation table to avoid any further escalation.
I hope I'm wrong in my military analysis because I do not want to see this outcome since ordinary Iranians will suffer greatly in this "war".
Why?
The US will always engage wars with oil-rich countries and Iran happens to be an oil-producing nation. The US sanctions against Iran will not yield the desired outcome that the US wanted. Please see the example below. Therefore, the US has decided to take some further action.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010478/iranian-fuel-oil-shipped-violation-us-sanctions-unloaded-china
The US has a plan to deploy 120,000 military personnel and aircraft carrier strike force to the Middle East and this is not a show of force to deter Iran from carrying some threats against US targets in the region. This is the usual US modus operandi (Intelligence fabrication and battle preparation).
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/us-troops-middle-east-iran/index.html
https://www.apnews.com/c13d7c2ce4a1429bad83d5482f9193f3
The large deployment is similar to the force size deployed to attack Iraq in the past. However, Iran is much larger than Iraq and the US will not fight the war with Iran on the ground but will launch air attacks to decimate the nuclear facilities and key installations.
The US will be able to tighten the sea surveillance and make things difficult for Iran to ship its oil with the large deployment. However, Iran can still sell its oil through Turkey and Pakistan. We must not forget that Pakistan has an oil pipeline that connects to China and China will continue to buy oil from Iran. Furthermore, it is difficult for the US to stop Iran oil trading by land because Pakistan and Turkey are at loggerheads with the US.
In order to remove the threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US will definitely attack Iran to eliminate the threat permanently. Although Iran and the US declared that they didn't want to fight with each other, both nations were just engaging in deceptions to distract each other but were, in fact, preparing for the ultimate battles. After the restricted battles, the US will demand Iran to come to the negotiation table to avoid any further escalation.
I hope I'm wrong in my military analysis because I do not want to see this outcome since ordinary Iranians will suffer greatly in this "war".
Saturday, May 18, 2019
China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 3
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-pboc/chinas-central-bank-wont-let-yuan-weaken-past-7-to-the-dollar-sources-idUSKCN1SN0NT
China's central bank has announced that it will defend the RMB at 7. Technically speaking, the central bank will intervene at the 6.95-6.99 range. What will the central bank do?
The central bank will continue to sell and stop buying the US treasuries to support the RMB. The explanation had already been provided in our previous post.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_17.html
China's central bank has announced that it will defend the RMB at 7. Technically speaking, the central bank will intervene at the 6.95-6.99 range. What will the central bank do?
The central bank will continue to sell and stop buying the US treasuries to support the RMB. The explanation had already been provided in our previous post.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_17.html
Baltic dry index - 1040
Today, Friday, May 17 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 8 points, reaching 1040 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
====================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
Friday, May 17, 2019
Hong Kong pro-democracy activists are a bunch of ungrateful people!
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-secretary-state-mike-pompeo-005842713.html
Why did I say that?
When HK was under UK's administration for 99 years, all the HK governors were appointed by the UK and the Hongkongers had no voting right for 99 years. After the 1997 handover, these HK pro-democracy activists started to appear and clamour for voting right to select the HK governor. Why? It is pretty obvious that the western countries are behind this and these activists have sold their souls to the western paymasters. These people are truly ungrateful.
Furthermore, the UK government emptied the HK's coffer before the handover in 1997. After the 1997 handover, the asian financial crisis happened a few months later and HK was defenseless as it had no money to fight off the speculators in the currency and stock markets. China's GDP in 1997 was below US$1t and its foreign reserve was around US$150b.
During that time, China infused HKMA with more than US$80b without hesitation to fight off the currency and stock predators. HK would become a 3rd world province if not for China's generous help especially when China didn't have a huge coffer (only US$150b) in 1997.
After crossing the hardest time in 1997, the HK activists started to disown China. What kind of moral values the HK activists are trying to inculcate to the next generation? Is it right to burn the bridge after crossing it? Can we disown our parents after getting help from them?
Why did I say that?
When HK was under UK's administration for 99 years, all the HK governors were appointed by the UK and the Hongkongers had no voting right for 99 years. After the 1997 handover, these HK pro-democracy activists started to appear and clamour for voting right to select the HK governor. Why? It is pretty obvious that the western countries are behind this and these activists have sold their souls to the western paymasters. These people are truly ungrateful.
Furthermore, the UK government emptied the HK's coffer before the handover in 1997. After the 1997 handover, the asian financial crisis happened a few months later and HK was defenseless as it had no money to fight off the speculators in the currency and stock markets. China's GDP in 1997 was below US$1t and its foreign reserve was around US$150b.
After crossing the hardest time in 1997, the HK activists started to disown China. What kind of moral values the HK activists are trying to inculcate to the next generation? Is it right to burn the bridge after crossing it? Can we disown our parents after getting help from them?
HMI - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/23/19 | phillip | HMI | 0.540 | 0.77 | Buy | |
| 02/13/19 | UOB Kay Hian | HMI | 0.535 | 0.73 | Buy | DCF |
| 02/14/19 | phillip | HMI | 0.550 | 0.77 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/14/19 | Kim Eng | HMI | 0.540 | 0.68 | Buy | DCF, PER27x FY20 |
| 05/15/19 | phillip | HMI | 0.530 | 0.73 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/15/19 | CIMB | HMI | 0.530 | 0.68 | Add | DCF |
| 05/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | HMI | 0.530 | 0.73 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/16/19 | Kim Eng | HMI | 0.545 | 0.66 | Buy | DCF |
Hi-P - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 01/08/19 | Kim Eng | Hi-P | 0.965 | 0.68 | Sell | PB0.8x |
| 02/22/19 | DBS Vickers | Hi-P | 1.05 | 1.12 | Hold | PER10x FY19 |
| 02/25/19 | Kim Eng | Hi-P | 1.14 | 1.22 | Hold | PB1.5x |
| 03/13/19 | Lim & Tan | Hi-P | 1.75 | 0 | Avoid | overvalued |
| 04/09/19 | Kim Eng | Hi-P | 1.63 | 1.22 | Sell | PB1.5x FY19 |
| 05/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Hi-P | 1.44 | 1.41 | Hold | PER12x FY19 |
| 05/06/19 | Kim Eng | Hi-P | 1.44 | 1.22 | Sell | PB1.5x FY19 |
Haw Par - Stock calls
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 02/28/19 | Lim & Tan | Haw Par | 12.39 | 0 | Buy |
Stock calls for 17 May 2019
| Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
| 05/17/19 | DMG & Partners | Bumitama | 0.7 | 0.62 | Neutral | |
| 05/17/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.1 | Buy | DCF, PB1.15x |
| 05/17/19 | phillip | City Developments | 8.63 | 11.82 | Buy | RNAV (30% discount) |
| 05/17/19 | phillip | Comfortdelgro | 2.54 | 2.72 | Accumulate | DCF, PER16.8x FY19 |
| 05/17/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.61 | Buy | |
| 05/17/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.25 | Neutral | |
| 05/17/19 | CIMB | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.55 | Add | DDM |
| 05/17/19 | DMG & Partners | Mindchamps | 0.66 | 0.83 | Buy | DCF |
| 05/17/19 | OCBC | SATS | 5.22 | 5.35 | Hold | |
| 05/17/19 | phillip | Sembcorp Industries | 2.55 | 3.75 | Buy | Sum of parts |
| 05/17/19 | CIMB | SIA | 9.4 | 10.14 | Hold | PB0.9x CY19 |
| 05/17/19 | Phillip | Singtel | 3.14 | 3.31 | Accumulate | Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7x FY20 |
| 05/17/19 | Amfrasers | Uni-Asia | 1.13 | 1.86 | Buy | Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19 |
| 05/17/19 | DBS Vickers | Yanlord | 1.44 | 1.47 | Hold | PER6x FY19/20 |
| 05/17/19 | CIMB | Yongnam | 0.169 | 0.33 | Add |
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