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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

The 2 achilles' heels of the US economy.

Any rebound in the US stock markets is just temporary because the short-sellers are squaring their positions.

The US stock markets have not priced in the full impacts of the covid-19 outbreak yet.  S&P has projected 50m infections in the US.  We can infer the death toll at 1.7m since the average mortality rate is 3.4%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/50m-americans-could-be-infected-by.html

I've seen other projections and the highest was 170m infections.  Therefore, S&P's projection is considered optimistic since the US flu has infected more than 30m people insofar.

This covid-19 outbreak will hit the 2 Achilles' heels of the US economy which are the corporate debts (include high yield bonds - junk bonds) and the mortgage debts (property).  This is the rationale behind the US FED's action to inject money into the financial market to buy the US treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

The S&P has started to downgrade the corporate's credit rating now.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/s-p-cuts-boeing-to-bbb-keeps-ratings-on-negative-watch-57609123

The S&P has also warned about the shale oil&gas companies and Australia banks ratings.

When the corporate and mortgage debts blow up, the world will face a great recession and this time will be much serious than the past recessions.  This is because people will be losing monies and also their lives.

2 comments:

Eric Ho said...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-credit-shocks-as-heaps-of-us-oil-field-service-company-debt-comes-warns-moodys-2020-03-18?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Moody's has given its warning about the shale oil industry after S&P.

Eric Ho said...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-downgrades-occidental-petroleums-debt-022024901.html

Moody's has started the downgrade by targeting an oil&gas company.