Red alert: The US economy is going to contract sharply in Q2. - Part 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

The US Q2 GDP collapsed by 32.9% and the Q1 GDP was revised down to -5%.  We're right again!

We had stated on numerous postings that the US Q2 GDP would be worse than Q1 by analyzing US consumer spendings and PMIs.  Therefore, the big drop in US Q2 GDP is an expected outcome if you've been following our earlier postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/red-alert-us-economy-is-going-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-ism-pmi-in-april-had-worsened.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-imf-has-finally-agreed-with-our-us.html

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/19/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.34	0	Buy

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.660	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
07/08/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.660	0.66	Hold	DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19	CIMB	HMI	0.660	0.68	Add	offer at $0.73
07/09/19	phillip	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/21/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.720	0.73	Hold	offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	PER12x FY20
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.19	1.21	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.39	Hold	PER13x FY20
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.34	Sell	PB1.5x FY20
02/14/20	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.3	1.37	Hold	PER14x FY20
02/18/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.31	1	Sell	PB1.2x FY20
03/30/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.83	0.78	Hold	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB1x FY20
04/02/20	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	0.835	0.85	Hold
04/20/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.97	0.78	Neutral

Stock calls for 30 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/30/20	OCBC	ART	0.895	1.03	Buy
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	2.76	4.5	Buy
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	0.97	1	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $0.9
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	0.97	1.3	Buy
07/30/20	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	0.97	0.95	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	8.28	13	Buy
07/30/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.15	4.47	Neutral	DCF
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.15	4.86	Buy	Sum of parts
07/30/20	Macquarie	DBS	20.4	25.5	outperform	PB
07/30/20	OCBC	DBS	20.4	20	Hold
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	20.4	23.12	Buy
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.18	1.7	Buy
07/30/20	Lim & Tan	Hongkong Land	3.72	0	Buy
07/30/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.9	11	Outperform	PB
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.9	11.22	Buy
07/30/20	CIMB	Parkway Life	3.44	3.43	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.73	1.91	Buy	PER25x FY21
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	SIA	3.53	3.75	Hold	PB0.8x FY21/22
07/30/20	CIMB	SIA	3.53	3.55	Hold	PB0.84x FY22
07/30/20	OCBC	Starhill	0.47	0.53	Buy
07/30/20	Macquarie	UOB	20.02	21	Neutral	PB
07/30/20	OCBC	UOB	20.02	21.5	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.7	9.5	Buy

The HK commercial reits are in troubles.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kongs-commercial-lenders-edge-025659845.html

The HK commercial REITs are in trouble because HK banks will be taking actions against them by recalling their loans or getting them to top up the fallen values.  We can't blame the banks because they need to cut their risk exposures too.

We had stated this situation before below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-am-i-not-interested-in-reits-and.html

We've just added the following feature.

We've just added the following feature so that our viewers can receive updates whenever we have some new postings.

Please feel free to be our followers to receive our latest updates so that you won't miss our important and accurate analyses anymore. Cheers!

MAS has capped SG banks' dividend payout to 60% and this causes SG bank stocks to tank.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/banking-finance/mas-calls-banks-cap-dividends-fy20-60-fy19

SG banks' share prices drop immediately after MAS's announcement.  The share price reaction is totally expected and we're not saying this on hindsight as we've stated this before.

Why did MAS make such an announcement that would cause the share prices to drop and make investors lose money?

We had explained this before in April 2020.  Please take a look and you will understand what's happening.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-will-companies-do-with-credit.html

Latest Canadian court disclosure showed that Meng didn't deceive HSBC.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0724/c90000-9714596.html

The latest Canadian court showed that HSBC set up Meng to get itself off the hook.

HSBC's internal email correspondences showed that HSBC was in full knowledge of the relationship between Huawei and the Iranian company.  HSBC claimed that its junior executive didn't report the relationship to the top management but the junior executive was not that junior as he was the VP of the department.  Whatever miscommunication happened between HSBC and its VP shouldn't be pinned on Huawei as the internal documents showed that Huawei didn't hide the relationship.

This disclosure is in Meng's favour now and it puts the Canadian authority in a bad light because it would mean the arrest was politically motivated.

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.066	0.08	Neutral	DCF

Great Eastern - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/09/19	Citibank	Great Eastern	23.29	27.8	Buy
02/21/20	Citibank	Great Eastern	22.15	27	Buy
03/18/20	Citibank	Great Eastern	18.2	19.5	Hold

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/19/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.22	Hold
07/06/20	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.262	Add

Stock calls for 29 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/20	Kim Eng	ARA Logistics	0.635	0.8	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.635	0.72	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.895	0.98	Hold	DDM
07/29/20	Phillip	ART	0.895	1.08	Buy
07/29/20	Kim Eng	ART	0.895	1.05	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	ART	0.895	1.08	Add
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.33	1.85	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.05	Buy
07/29/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.09	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.12	Add
07/29/20	Amfrasers	Mermaid	0.07	0.085	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.44	3.8	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.44	0	Hold
07/29/20	phillip	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.94	Neutral	DCF
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.74	0.64	Fully Valued	DCF, PER17x FY21
07/29/20	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.31	3.9	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	Starhill	0.475	0.706	Add	DDM
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Top Glove	8.65	11.97	Buy	PER16x FY21, Ringgit target $36.90

The FED will remain status quo again!

I see no point in analyzing the Fed interest rate movement for now because the Fed has rejected a negative rate policy.  Therefore, I will just use Fedwatch tool for now.

Fedwatch tool is indicating that there won't be any change to the Fed interest rate policy which is in sync with the previous Fed's pronouncement.

US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53559501

US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.  This is the kind of human rights that the US is propagating.

The international human rights group is missing again and keeping quiet about this excessive force being used by the US government.

The US repo market is dead which is exactly just how we've envisioned.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

We told you that the repo market would be wiped out when the US cut its rates to Zero.  It had happened.

Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!

23 July - Zero deal!

24 July - Zero deal!

27 July - Zero deal!

Reverse Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!

23 July - Zero deal!

24 July - Zero deal!

27 July - Zero deal!

Like we said before, we're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better pay attention.

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.225	0.24	Accumulate
08/23/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.188	0.19	Neutral	PER10x

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/16/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.295	0.22	Sell	Sum of parts
08/19/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.29	0.27	Sell
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.23	0.25	Neutral	Sum of parts
10/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.21	0.16	Sell	PER13x FY20
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.265	0.25	Neutral	Sum of parts
11/15/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.245	0.26	Hold
11/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.235	0.27	Hold
11/22/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.235	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/20/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.235	0.27	Buy	Sum of parts
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.2	0.25	Buy	Sum of parts
03/02/20	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.2	0.22	Hold
03/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.2	0.22	Hold	Buy @ $0.20
03/02/20	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.2	0.21	Hold	Sum of parts (20% discount)
03/24/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.129	0.125	Sell	Sum of parts, PER15x FY20
05/15/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.146	0.12	Sell	Sum of parts
06/26/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.15	0.13	Sell	Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/20	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.495	0.8	Hold
07/28/20	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.59	0.7	Hold

Stock calls for 28 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/28/20	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.59	0.7	Hold
07/28/20	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.965	1.08	Buy	DDM
07/28/20	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.39	0.482	Hold
07/28/20	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.91	Neutral	DCF
07/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	0.92	1.07	Buy	DCF
07/28/20	CIMB	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.96	Hold
07/28/20	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.99	Hold	DCF
07/28/20	OCBC	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.96	Hold
07/28/20	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.95	Hold
07/28/20	Lim & Tan	Raffles Medical	0.92	0	Hold
07/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.5	2.8	Buy	DCF
07/28/20	Phillip	UG Healthcare	1.75	2.7	Buy	PER15x FY21

The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted.

The USD index chart is at a 2-year low!

The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted and everything has played out according to our analyses.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

What were our previous analyses?

1. We projected in August 2019 that there would be a US recession after March 2020.  It happened.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-billion-dollar-question-will-us-enter.html

2. Then, we predicted the subsequent US actions.  They were:
a) Credit rating downgrades
b) FED was short of USD
c) US treasury was flushed with USD

All the predictions came true.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us_11.html

The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans. - Part 2

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/comment-cabinet-changes-show-singapores-political-succession-is-faltering-081150311.html

Look like we hit the nail on its head.

PM Lee seems to have doubts about PM-Designate Heng now because of the election result.  If not, he would have said that his next successor would still be Heng.

We had stated previously that Heng didn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-pm-designate-heng-doesnt-have.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.155	0.15	Neutral
08/29/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.15	0.14	Neutral	DCF
09/24/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.148	0.14	Neutral	DCF

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.88	1.2	Buy
10/11/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral
10/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.925	1.11	Buy
11/08/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.96	0.99	Hold	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.96	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.96	1.11	Buy
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.915	0.97	Neutral
01/14/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.92	1.2	Buy
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.86	1.2	Buy
02/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.85	0.95	Buy
02/13/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.875	0.99	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.875	0.85	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20	CIMB	Genting	0.875	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY21
02/13/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.875	1.1	Buy	DCF
03/18/20	CIMB	Genting	0.62	0.76	Add	EV/Ebitda7x FY21
03/18/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.62	0.84	Buy
03/20/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.51	0.64	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x FY20/21
03/20/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.51	0.8	Buy	DCF & EV/Ebita6x FY20
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.65	0.81	Buy
04/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.65	0.8	Buy	EV/Ebitda8.9x FY20
05/04/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.785	0.75	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/20	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.765	0	Sell
05/14/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.765	0.81	Buy	DCF
05/14/20	CIMB	Genting	0.765	0.76	Add	EV/Ebitda7x FY21
05/15/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.73	0.64	Take Profit	EV/Ebitda6x FY21
06/29/20	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.76	0	Hold
07/01/20	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.76	0.73	Neutral	EV/Ebitda6x FY21
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.765	0.8	Hold	Buy @ $0.68
07/07/20	CIMB	Genting	0.78	0.84	Add
07/23/20	Kim Eng	Genting	0.77	0.8	Hold	DCF

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/09/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy
08/14/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.215	0	Buy
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.285	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy
09/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.23	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.22	0.24	Buy	DCF
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.225	0.285	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.225	0.285	Buy
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.225	0.24	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.225	0	Buy
11/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.235	0.295	Buy
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.27	Buy	DCF
12/13/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.255	0.27	Buy
01/15/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.25	0.35	Buy	PER16x FY20
01/15/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.29	Buy	DCF
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.26	0.3	Buy
02/26/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.26	0.35	Buy	PER11.8x FY20
02/27/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.25	0	Hold
02/28/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.25	0.32	Buy	DCF
03/16/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.2	0.32	Buy	DCF
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.198	0.21	Hold
04/06/20	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.196	0.21	Add
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.199	0.32	Buy
04/13/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.28	Buy	DCF
05/13/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.22	0.21	Hold	PER13.6x FY20
05/13/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.22	0	Buy on weakness
05/14/20	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.22	0.21	Hold
05/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.22	0.25	Buy	PER12.4x FY20
06/16/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.23	0.28	Buy	DCF
06/24/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.24	0	Buy
07/03/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.235	0.28	Buy