China has given its most recent GDP projection (above 6%) for 2021 but IMF and other economists have given a more optimistic projection of more than 8%.
Why is China less optimistic than IMF and other economists?
China will have a high GDP growth this year because of a low base in 2020 and this optimistic assessment can be derived from an export surge due to an outburst or a recovery in worldwide consumer spendings.
China is less optimistic in its own GDP projection because it is worried about the contagion in US economic risks. This shows that China economists are very concerned about importing US inflation that will disrupt its own economy.
I know it is counterfactual to talk about US inflation now since US inflation is still non-existent in the official statistics. However, we cannot have this insouciance because there are already some preliminary signs.
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