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Thursday, February 23, 2023

Is complacency rearing its head in the stock market?

 The chart below shows that recession fear is receding fast.  How valid it is?

Let's take a look at the yardstick first (10y-2y).

The chart above is showing that a recession (shaded) always happens after a yield curve inversion except for 2020 (caused by covid pandemic).  Thus, it is highly likely that we will be facing an impending recession as shown by the chart.

It looks like complacency has set in because recession fear is receding fast.

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