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Thursday, July 30, 2020

The HK commercial reits are in troubles.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kongs-commercial-lenders-edge-025659845.html

The HK commercial REITs are in trouble because HK banks will be taking actions against them by recalling their loans or getting them to top up the fallen values.  We can't blame the banks because they need to cut their risk exposures too.

We had stated this situation before below.

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We've just added the following feature so that our viewers can receive updates whenever we have some new postings.

Please feel free to be our followers to receive our latest updates so that you won't miss our important and accurate analyses anymore. Cheers!
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MAS has capped SG banks' dividend payout to 60% and this causes SG bank stocks to tank.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/banking-finance/mas-calls-banks-cap-dividends-fy20-60-fy19

SG banks' share prices drop immediately after MAS's announcement.  The share price reaction is totally expected and we're not saying this on hindsight as we've stated this before.

Why did MAS make such an announcement that would cause the share prices to drop and make investors lose money?

We had explained this before in April 2020.  Please take a look and you will understand what's happening.

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Latest Canadian court disclosure showed that Meng didn't deceive HSBC.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0724/c90000-9714596.html

The latest Canadian court showed that HSBC set up Meng to get itself off the hook.

HSBC's internal email correspondences showed that HSBC was in full knowledge of the relationship between Huawei and the Iranian company.  HSBC claimed that its junior executive didn't report the relationship to the top management but the junior executive was not that junior as he was the VP of the department.  Whatever miscommunication happened between HSBC and its VP shouldn't be pinned on Huawei as the internal documents showed that Huawei didn't hide the relationship.

This disclosure is in Meng's favour now and it puts the Canadian authority in a bad light because it would mean the arrest was politically motivated.


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Wednesday, July 29, 2020

GSS Energy - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/20/19DMG & PartnersGSS Energy0.0740.08NeutralDCF
10/08/19DMG & PartnersGSS Energy0.0660.08NeutralDCF
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Great Eastern - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
11/09/19CitibankGreat Eastern23.2927.8Buy
02/21/20CitibankGreat Eastern22.1527Buy
03/18/20CitibankGreat Eastern18.219.5Hold
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Grand Venture - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/19/19CIMBGrand Venture0.220.22Hold
07/06/20CIMBGrand Venture0.220.262Add
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Stock calls for 29 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/29/20Kim EngARA Logistics0.6350.8BuyDDM
07/29/20DMG & PartnersARA Logistics0.6350.72BuyDDM
07/29/20UOB Kay HianART0.8950.98HoldDDM
07/29/20PhillipART0.8951.08Buy
07/29/20Kim EngART0.8951.05Buy
07/29/20CIMBART0.8951.08Add
07/29/20DBS VickersAscendas India Trust1.331.85BuyDDM
07/29/20DBS VickersMapletree North Asia0.8751.05Buy
07/29/20OCBCMapletree North Asia0.8751.09Buy
07/29/20CIMBMapletree North Asia0.8751.12Add
07/29/20AmfrasersMermaid0.070.085NeutralSum of parts
07/29/20UOB Kay HianParkway Life3.443.8BuyDDM
07/29/20Lim & TanParkway Life3.440Hold
07/29/20phillipRaffles Medical0.920.94NeutralDCF
07/29/20DBS VickersSingapore Post0.740.64Fully ValuedDCF, PER17x FY21
07/29/20DMG & PartnersST Engineering3.313.9Buy
07/29/20CIMBStarhill0.4750.706AddDDM
07/29/20UOB Kay HianTop Glove8.6511.97BuyPER16x FY21, Ringgit target $36.90
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The FED will remain status quo again!

I see no point in analyzing the Fed interest rate movement for now because the Fed has rejected a negative rate policy.  Therefore, I will just use Fedwatch tool for now.

Fedwatch tool is indicating that there won't be any change to the Fed interest rate policy which is in sync with the previous Fed's pronouncement.
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US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53559501

US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.  This is the kind of human rights that the US is propagating.

The international human rights group is missing again and keeping quiet about this excessive force being used by the US government.

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Tuesday, July 28, 2020

The US repo market is dead which is exactly just how we've envisioned.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

We told you that the repo market would be wiped out when the US cut its rates to Zero.  It had happened.

Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!
23 July - Zero deal!
24 July - Zero deal!
27 July - Zero deal!

Reverse Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!
23 July - Zero deal!
24 July - Zero deal!
27 July - Zero deal!
Like we said before, we're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better pay attention.
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Golden Energy - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19phillipGolden Energy0.2250.24Accumulate
08/23/19phillipGolden Energy0.1880.19NeutralPER10x
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Golden Agri - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/16/19DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.2950.22SellSum of parts
08/19/19OCBCGolden Agri0.290.27Sell
09/30/19DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.230.25NeutralSum of parts
10/15/19UOB Kay HianGolden Agri0.210.16SellPER13x FY20
11/14/19DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.2650.25NeutralSum of parts
11/15/19OCBCGolden Agri0.2450.26Hold
11/22/19UOB Kay HianGolden Agri0.2350.27Hold
11/22/19CIMBGolden Agri0.2350.23ReduceSum of parts (10% discount)
01/20/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.2350.27BuySum of parts
03/02/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.20.25BuySum of parts
03/02/20OCBCGolden Agri0.20.22Hold
03/02/20UOB Kay HianGolden Agri0.20.22HoldBuy @ $0.20
03/02/20CIMBGolden Agri0.20.21HoldSum of parts (20% discount)
03/24/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.1290.125SellSum of parts, PER15x FY20
05/15/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.1460.12SellSum of parts
06/26/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.150.13SellSum of parts
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GL Ltd - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/19/20Lim & TanGL Ltd0.4950.8Hold
07/28/20Lim & TanGL Ltd0.590.7Hold
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Stock calls for 28 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/28/20Lim & TanGL Ltd0.590.7Hold
07/28/20Kim EngNetlink0.9651.08BuyDDM
07/28/20CIMBOUE Commercial0.390.482Hold
07/28/20DMG & PartnersRaffles Medical0.920.91NeutralDCF
07/28/20UOB Kay HianRaffles Medical0.921.07BuyDCF
07/28/20CIMBRaffles Medical0.920.96Hold
07/28/20Kim EngRaffles Medical0.920.99HoldDCF
07/28/20OCBCRaffles Medical0.920.96Hold
07/28/20DBS VickersRaffles Medical0.920.95Hold
07/28/20Lim & TanRaffles Medical0.920Hold
07/28/20UOB Kay HianSingtel2.52.8BuyDCF
07/28/20PhillipUG Healthcare1.752.7BuyPER15x FY21
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The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted.

The USD index chart is at a 2-year low!

The USD is depreciating just as we've predicted and everything has played out according to our analyses.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html


What were our previous analyses?

1. We projected in August 2019 that there would be a US recession after March 2020.  It happened.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-billion-dollar-question-will-us-enter.html


2. Then, we predicted the subsequent US actions.  They were:
a) Credit rating downgrades
b) FED was short of USD
c) US treasury was flushed with USD


All the predictions came true.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us_11.html


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The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans. - Part 2

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/comment-cabinet-changes-show-singapores-political-succession-is-faltering-081150311.html

Look like we hit the nail on its head.

PM Lee seems to have doubts about PM-Designate Heng now because of the election result.  If not, he would have said that his next successor would still be Heng.

We had stated previously that Heng didn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-pm-designate-heng-doesnt-have.html
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Monday, July 27, 2020

Geo Energy - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19phillipGeo Energy0.1550.15Neutral
08/29/19AmfrasersGeo Energy0.150.14NeutralDCF
09/24/19AmfrasersGeo Energy0.1480.14NeutralDCF
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Genting - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/05/19DMG & PartnersGenting0.90.97NeutralEV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19UOB Kay HianGenting0.91.11Buy
08/06/19Kim EngGenting0.8850.99Hold
08/06/19CitibankGenting0.8851.07Buy
08/06/19CIMBGenting0.8851AddEV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19DBS VickersGenting0.8851.2Buy
08/06/19Lim & TanGenting0.8850Hold
10/01/19DBS VickersGenting0.881.2Buy
10/11/19DMG & PartnersGenting0.90.97Neutral
10/25/19UOB Kay HianGenting0.9251.11Buy
11/08/19Kim EngGenting0.960.99HoldEV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19DMG & PartnersGenting0.960.97NeutralEV/Ebitda7x FY20
11/08/19UOB Kay HianGenting0.961.11Buy
12/11/19DMG & PartnersGenting0.9150.97Neutral
01/14/20DBS VickersGenting0.921.2Buy
02/10/20DBS VickersGenting0.861.2Buy
02/11/20UOB Kay HianGenting0.850.95Buy
02/13/20Kim EngGenting0.8750.99BuyEV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20DMG & PartnersGenting0.8750.85NeutralEV/Ebitda7x FY20
02/13/20CIMBGenting0.8751AddEV/Ebitda8x CY21
02/13/20DBS VickersGenting0.8751.1BuyDCF
03/18/20CIMBGenting0.620.76AddEV/Ebitda7x FY21
03/18/20Kim EngGenting0.620.84Buy
03/20/20DMG & PartnersGenting0.510.64BuyEV/Ebitda6x FY20/21
03/20/20DBS VickersGenting0.510.8BuyDCF & EV/Ebita6x FY20
04/06/20DBS VickersGenting0.650.81Buy
04/06/20UOB Kay HianGenting0.650.8BuyEV/Ebitda8.9x FY20
05/04/20DBS VickersGenting0.7850.75HoldSum of parts
05/14/20Lim & TanGenting0.7650Sell
05/14/20Kim EngGenting0.7650.81BuyDCF
05/14/20CIMBGenting0.7650.76AddEV/Ebitda7x FY21
05/15/20DMG & PartnersGenting0.730.64Take ProfitEV/Ebitda6x FY21
06/29/20Lim & TanGenting0.760Hold
07/01/20DMG & PartnersGenting0.760.73NeutralEV/Ebitda6x FY21
07/02/20UOB Kay HianGenting0.7650.8HoldBuy @ $0.68
07/07/20CIMBGenting0.780.84Add
07/23/20Kim EngGenting0.770.8HoldDCF
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Fu Yu - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/09/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2150.24BuyDCF
07/15/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2150.29Buy
08/14/19Lim & TanFu Yu0.2150Buy
08/14/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2150.24BuyDCF
08/14/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2150.285Buy
09/11/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2150.24Buy
09/16/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.230.285BuyEV/Ebitda5.7x FY19
10/02/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.220.24BuyDCF
10/09/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2250.285Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2250.285Buy
11/14/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2250.24BuyDCF
11/14/19Lim & TanFu Yu0.2250Buy
11/29/19UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.2350.295Buy
12/10/19DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.250.27BuyDCF
12/13/19Lim & TanFu Yu0.250Buy
01/08/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2550.27Buy
01/15/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.250.35BuyPER16x FY20
01/15/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.250.29BuyDCF
02/26/20UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.260.3Buy
02/26/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.260.35BuyPER11.8x FY20
02/27/20Lim & TanFu Yu0.250Hold
02/28/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.250.32BuyDCF
03/16/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.20.32BuyDCF
04/01/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.1980.21Hold
04/06/20CIMBFu Yu0.1960.21Add
04/07/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.1990.32Buy
04/13/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2150.28BuyDCF
05/13/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.220.21HoldPER13.6x FY20
05/13/20Lim & TanFu Yu0.220Buy on weakness
05/14/20CIMBFu Yu0.220.21Hold
05/15/20UOB Kay HianFu Yu0.220.25BuyPER12.4x FY20
06/16/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.230.28BuyDCF
06/24/20Lim & TanFu Yu0.240Buy
07/03/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.2350.28Buy
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