SIA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.5	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
01/24/19	CIMB	SIA	9.5	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	CIMB	SIA	9.87	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.87	11	Buy	PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.87	0	Hold
02/18/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.76	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19	OCBC	SIA	9.76	10.71	Buy
03/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.83	10.25	Hold
03/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.83	10.1	Hold	Buy @ $9
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	OCBC	SIA	9.88	11.02	Buy
05/17/19	CIMB	SIA	9.4	10.14	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19	OCBC	SIA	9.3	11.02	Buy
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.3	9.6	Hold	Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.3	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60
06/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.17	10.04	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.67	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9.10
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.67	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
08/01/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.67	0	Hold
08/02/19	CIMB	SIA	9.2	10.04	Hold	PB0.9x CY19

Stock calls for 16 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/16/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.19	1.5	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
09/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.23	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda

My observations of the HK protests. - Part 2

We had envisaged this to happen (anti-govt protestors VS pro-govt protestors) in our post yesterday.  This just happened today.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/my-observations-of-hk-protests.html

The Hong Kong protestors know nothing about the property market.

The PPI shows that HK property market surged in the past 10 years and the HK protestors put the blame on the HK government.  Let's seek out the truth so that you will understand that this is a worldwide phenomenon trend.

What happened roughly 10 years ago?  Do you still remember the Lehman Brothers' (LB) collapse in September 2008?  The US government commenced QE1, QE2 and QE3 after LB's collapse to revive its own economy, and kept its interest rates artificially low for a long time with the ensuing outcome of churning massive money supplies in the world.  The consequences of the US monetary easing policies inflated the worldwide stock and property markets.  Therefore, the main culprit is the US government.

Where's the proof?  SG is also faced with the same property situation.

SG property market also surged after 2008 (from below 100 to above 150) but our government implemented property measures a few years later to rein in the property prices.

However, the HK CEs didn't dare to change the HK housing policy because of Tung Chee Hwa's downfall.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/hk-carrie-lam-is-following-footstep-of.html

My observations of the HK protests.

From this video, we can tell that the organizers are facing some cash flow problems as they're keeping a tight rein of their funds.

The pro-china protestors have started to come out this weekend because the ordinary residents are fed up with these black protestors who disrupt their daily lives.

These black protestors have incurred the wrath of the general public and are also not getting paid on time.

I think the black protestors will dwindle in size in the future because they're not getting paid and they will also face the pro-China protestors which will make their protests more difficult and dangerous.  The black protestors know that the police will be restraint in hitting them but the pro-china protestors won't.

We've stated that these black protestors would be at the receiving end in the end.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-hong-kong-protestors-have-lost.html

Anyway, I wish HK the best and peace and order will return soon.

Hong Kong protests continue again.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-hong-kong-protesters-plan-025959474.html

The HK protests continue after the withdrawal of the extradition bill and revision in the housing policy.

We had stated before that the protests would continue even if the government relented.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hong-kong-protestors-are-daft.html

The HK protestors will continue to protest no matter what the outcome is.  Why? No protest, No money!

The HK protestors are being paid to protest and they have to protest to get the money.  However, some of them are whining about not getting paid. Just look at the leaked video (he forgot to turn it off) of a HK protestor ranting about not getting paid.

Indonesian haze is back in Singapore now!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/region-chokes-haze-indonesian-media-002218914.html

I can smell it in my home now!

Damn, I cannot do my favourite outdoor activities now.

Stay healthy, guys!

Hahaha! LSE condemns HKEX takeover offer.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/london-stock-exchange-strongly-rejects-093000403.html

LSE not only rejects HKEX's offer but also condemns the offer.

We've said before in our previous post that HK had everything to lose.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-hongkongers-have-everything-to-lose.html

LSE has lost faith and confidence in HK's future which results in the rejection and condemnation.

Hong Kong protestors fabricated fake news to defame HK police. - Part 2

The truth is slowly unfolding about the woman who claimed that her eye was shot by HK police.

We posted a video previously showing no HK police were in the vicinity that could have shot her eye and the beanbag round had a short effective range.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hong-kong-protestors-fabricated-fake.html

She didn't lodge a police report and also didn't file a lawsuit against the police.  In the video, it was stated that she was offered HK$30m to pin the blame on the police but was later reduced to HK$5m to lie down as the police were getting closer to the truth with their investigations.  The police had applied to the court to retrieve her medical record from the hospital for further investigation because she rejected the police's request.

These were not innocent and ordinary protestors because they had a devious plan to smear the police and topple the government.  I've also seen online news about the protestors accusing the police of raping female protestors in the police stations and the police had killed a few protestors in the MRT stations.

TLTRO III will start on 19 September.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2019/html/ecb.pr190912~19ac2682ff.en.html

TLTRO III will last 3 years and end in 2022.  The interest spread has been removed and this will lower the interest rate.

If you don't know anything about TLTRO, please read our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-targeted-longer-term.html

SHS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	phillip	SHS	0.197	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x
05/21/19	phillip	SHS	0.174	0	Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.27	Buy
01/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.13	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.15	Hold
02/27/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	DCF
02/27/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.19	Buy
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	PER25x FY19
02/27/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.22	Add	PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.11	Hold
03/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x
03/05/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.24	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.25	Buy	DCF
03/19/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.08	0.95	Sell	DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy
04/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.06	0.95	Sell	DCF
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.11	Hold	Buy @ $1
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy	PER5x FY19
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.23	Buy	DCF & PER21x
04/30/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.1	Hold	PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.24	Buy	DCF
04/30/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.19	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.03	1.3	Buy	PER25x
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.25	Buy
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
07/15/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.3	Buy	PER25x
07/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
07/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.11	1.32	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.11	1.32	Buy	PER25x FY20
07/31/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.15	0.96	Sell	DCF
07/31/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.19	Buy
07/31/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.15	1.25	Add
08/01/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x FY19
08/06/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.27	Outperform
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.18	0.96	Sell	DCF
08/23/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.32	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.2	1.32	Buy

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/21/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.04	16.4	Buy
03/22/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.18	16.16	Buy
08/26/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	8.3	13.9	Buy

Stock calls for 13 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/13/19	Kim Eng	Japfa	0.485	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
09/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.3	2.58	Buy	DDM
09/13/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.86	4.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20

HK Carrie Lam is following the footstep of Tung Chee Hwa.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-carrie-lam-housing-livelihoods-protest-11902048

The HK's housing problem was caused by the British administration and Tung Chee Hwa was trying to resolve it during his term by releasing more land sales and building more public houses.  However, he was forced to step down because his housing policies would bring down property prices and rentals.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-hongkongers-have-everything-to-lose.html

Will Carrie Lam face the same backlash as Tung Chee Hwa?  Let's see.

China has not given up on HK yet.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-china-prods-state-firms-033635822.html

China has not given up on HK yet.  HK is, after all, China's child and the motherland will still take care of its own child no matter what wrong the child has done.

Was the Shenzhen's developments just a verbal warning to HK for the protests?  We'll have to wait and see then.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/omg-china-has-displaced-hong-kong-with.html

Prior to the pronouncement of the SZ developments, we had indicated that China would bail out HK if needed.  As predicted earlier, China has called up its SoEs to help HK now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hong-kong-economy-will-be-heavily.html

Wow! Vietnam can control inflation by cutting interest rates.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/vietnam-central-bank-to-cut-rates-by-025-percentage-points

Wow! Vietnam economists must be awarded the Nobel prize for controlling inflation with interest rates cut.  It is an almost impossible task to do and Vietnam has the confidence to achieve it.

Let's see how Vietnam will accomplish this insurmountable task because this defies my economic knowledge.

Huawei's Kirin 990 is the best chip now.

Huawei's Kirin 990 is an all-in-one 5G chip that no other chip can match now.

It impressed many techies in the IFA event in Germany.  It can download a complete movie in 6 seconds while the 4G chip can only download 12% in 6 seconds.  It can also replace the background of a video instantaneously that the 4G chip cannot do.

I got swept away by Huawei's Kirin 990.  Kudos to Huawei!

Trump knows who are his friends and foes now.

Multiple bankruptcies had taught Trump a few things in life.

Let me surmise what are the things you can learn from multiple bankruptcies.

1st bankruptcy - You will learn and know who your real friends are because many of your "friends" will avoid you during your bankruptcy for fear that you will borrow money from them.  You can tell who your friends and foes are by now.

2nd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand more about yourself because you know what you can and cannot do in life by now.  In short, you know your own capabilities after your 2nd bankruptcy.

3rd bankruptcy - You will learn and understand this world better than other people after having gone through the vicissitudes of life.  You will know how this world works by now.  This was also the reason Trump got elected to be the US president because he understood how the US system was like after his numerous bankruptcies.

Trump knew who would make him lose his presidential and had fired a few hawkish people in his team.

The hawkish people are:

James Mattis

Steven Bannon

John Bolton

The remaining hawkish people in his team are feeling apprehensive now because they are fearful of their dismissals if they continue to be aggressive.

Let's see how this will affect future US political policies.

Monetary easing (ME) policy should be used as a last resort, not as a first resort.

Central bankers are abusing the monetary easing policy nowadays and using it as a first resort to solve their economic problems.

Basically, the monetary easing policy is used to increase the money supply in the banking and financial system with the ensuing outcome to depreciate the currency and cause inflation.  Therefore, it will become an invisible tax (higher inflation) on ordinary consumers who don't borrow the "new" money with lower interest rates to invest.

The monetary easing policy should be used as a last resort because it is supposed to be implemented when the economic projection is very bleak.  If the economic projection is very bleak, business investments and consumer spendings must be encouraged.  The business owners are able to borrow the new money at lower interest rates for their investments and consumers' propensity to spend will also be higher because of higher inflation expectations.

However, the ME policy is a double-edged sword because when the economic projection is very bleak, the job security is also expected to be low and this may deter consumer spendings and consumers may end up saving more for rainy days.  Consequently, the ME policy will encourage more savings than spendings instead because it is signalling to the general public that the future economy is very weak.  For example, if the bank is adopting a ME policy of negative interest of -1%, how many people will borrow from the bank to buy a property even when the bank is paying the borrower an interest?  The borrower will be worried that he will lose his job anytime and won't buy a big-ticket item because taking on additional debt in a bad economic situation is a bad idea.

Therefore, the ME policy is to be used as a last resort since the outcome is uncertain.  When the economic situation is in dire straits, then the ME should be used and hope that the best outcome prevails.