Stock calls for 30 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.58	0.6	Neutral	PER16x FY20
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.6	1.9	Buy	PER18x FY20
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.23	0.25	Neutral	Sum of parts
09/30/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.98	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
09/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	2.34	2.38	Hold	DDM
09/30/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	2.34	2.1	Hold
09/30/19	CIMB	Mapletree Commercial	2.34	2.38	Hold	DDM
09/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.33	1.65	Buy	DCF
09/30/19	Phillip	Venture	15.27	17.68	Buy	PER14x
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.72	4.75	Buy	Sum of parts

The US aircraft carrier was expelled from South China Sea by China recently.

The recent satellite image in September 2019.  The yellow circle was the US aircraft carrier.

The image showed that the US aircraft carrier was surrounded by several China warships in the South China Sea recently.

This shocked the US navy because China responded fast and furious in numbers to oust the US navy from the South China Sea.

The US navy also has to watch out for DF-17 missiles in the South China Sea too.

Baltic dry index - 1857

Today, Friday, September 27 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 106 points, reaching 1857 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 860

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US government is eyeing to delist Chinese firms from US stock markets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-eyeing-possibility-delisting-chinese-161819351.html

The US government has taken a harder stance against China now.

Maybe the US thinks that it can force China to bend over for the upcoming trade talk but China has stated that it won't succumb to any threat or coercion.

I already suspected something was amiss when China was asked to cancel the US farm visits by Mnuchin.  Look like my hunch is right now.

The US congressional committees have approved the HK human rights and democracy act.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3030403/beijing-vows-retaliate-after-us-hong-kong-human-rights-bill

This is a blatant interference of HK internal affairs or rather the China's internal affairs which will severely strain the US-Sino relationship.

No sovereign country can accept a long-arm jurisdiction of a foreign country in its own internal affairs.

This move will definitely make China take a harder stance against the US-China trade issues.

Valuetronics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.66	0.87	Buy
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.675	0.82	Buy
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.69	0.9	Buy	PB1.9x FY19
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.74	1.05	Buy	ROE-g/COE-g, PB2.1x FY20
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.74	0.78	Neutral	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.74	0.73	Hold	PER8.5x CY19
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.71	0.87	Buy
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.69	0.78	Neutral
03/21/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.685	1.05	Buy	PB2.1x FY20
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.7	1.05	Buy
05/27/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.61	0.67	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.625	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.625	0.8	Buy
06/03/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.605	0.63	Hold	PER8x CY20
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.64	0.99	Buy	PB2x FY20
08/16/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.62	0.94	Buy	ROE-g/COE-g, PB1.9x FY20
08/16/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.62	0.61	Neutral	DCF
08/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.62	0.8	Buy

UOL - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	OCBC	UOL	6.07	8.41	Buy
01/04/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6	0	Buy
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.65	7.15	Hold
02/12/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6.57	0	Buy
02/27/19	CIMB	UOL	6.77	8.45	Add	RNAV
02/27/19	OCBC	UOL	6.77	8.45	Buy	RNAV
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6.77	0	Buy
02/28/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.75	7.15	Hold	RNAV (40% discount)
03/18/19	OCBC	UOL	6.45	8.45	Buy	RNAV
03/28/19	CIMB	UOL	6.78	8.45	Add
04/02/19	OCBC	UOL	7.11	8.45	Buy	RNAV
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.36	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.26	0	Buy
05/13/19	CIMB	UOL	7.26	8.45	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
05/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.26	8.5	Buy
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.08	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
06/07/19	CIMB	UOL	6.8	8.45	Add
07/15/19	OCBC	UOL	7.61	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.2	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.2	8.53	Buy	PB0.8x
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.2	0	Buy on weakness
09/10/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.47	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

UOB - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	24.57	30.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.41x FY19
01/03/19	CIMB	UOB	24.31	31	Add	PER11.4x FY20
01/03/19	JP Morgan	UOB	24.31	30	Overweight
01/04/19	phillip	UOB	23.99	32.52	Buy
01/04/19	Jefferies	UOB	23.99	31	Buy
01/29/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.83	29.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.37x FY19
01/29/19	CIMB	UOB	25.83	32	Add	GGM, PB1.4x CY19
01/31/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.3	30.5	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	phillip	UOB	25.19	32.52	Buy
02/12/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.34	30.5	Buy
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.98	29.8	Buy	PB1.35x FY19
02/25/19	Jefferies	UOB	25.58	30	Buy	PER12.3x FY19
02/25/19	OCBC	UOB	25.58	28.3	Buy	PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.58	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x
02/25/19	phillip	UOB	25.58	32.51	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.58	29.71	Buy	DDM
02/25/19	CIMB	UOB	25.58	29	Add	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
02/26/19	Macquarie	UOB	25.39	30.5	Outperform	PB
03/04/19	phillip	UOB	25	32.5	Buy
03/07/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.1	29.71	Buy
03/11/19	CIMB	UOB	24.91	29	Add
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.04	29.8	Buy	PB1.35x FY19
03/26/19	OCBC	UOB	24.95	28.3	Buy
04/02/19	phillip	UOB	25.42	32.5	Buy
04/02/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.42	29.2	Buy
04/11/19	CIMB	UOB	26.56	29	Add
04/12/19	Kim Eng	UOB	26.53	29.71	Buy
04/18/19	phillip	UOB	26.87	32.02	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.8	29.8	Buy
04/24/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.99	30.8	Buy	PB1.29x FY20
05/03/19	phillip	UOB	27.75	32.5	Buy
05/03/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.75	30.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.29x FY20
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.75	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
05/03/19	CIMB	UOB	27.75	29	Add	GGM
05/06/19	Jefferies	UOB	27.77	31	Buy	PER12.4x FY19
05/06/19	OCBC	UOB	27.77	28.9	Hold	GGM, PB1.2x
05/06/19	phillip	UOB	27.77	30.87	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
05/06/19	CIMB	UOB	27.77	29.58	Add	GGM, PB1.3x
05/06/19	Lim & Tan	UOB	27.77	0	Buy on weakness
05/07/19	OCBC	UOB	25.85	27.3	Hold
05/16/19	CIMB	UOB	25.1	29.58	Add	GGM
05/22/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.83	28.97	Buy
06/03/19	CIMB	UOB	23.5	29.58	Add
06/06/19	phillip	UOB	24	30.9	Accumulate
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	24	30.8	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.99	28.97	Buy
06/20/19	OCBC	UOB	26.14	28.9	Buy
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.86	29.2	Buy
07/01/19	Kim Eng	UOB	26.13	28.97	Buy
07/02/19	OCBC	UOB	26.61	29.4	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x, PER11.3x
07/03/19	phillip	UOB	26.55	30.9	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.26	30.8	Buy	PB1.29x FY20
07/22/19	CIMB	UOB	26.94	29.58	Add
07/23/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	26.8	29.2	Buy
08/02/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.28	29.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.24x FY20
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	UOB	26.28	0	Buy on weakness
08/05/19	phillip	UOB	26	28.6	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	26	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
08/05/19	Kim Eng	UOB	26	29.13	Buy	DDM
08/06/19	CIMB	UOB	25.91	29.58	Add	GGM, PB1.3x
08/20/19	CIMB	UOB	25.15	29.54	Add
08/29/19	Macquarie	UOB	24.41	27.2	Neutral	PB
09/02/19	CIMB	UOB	24.96	29.54	Add
09/05/19	phillip	UOB	25.1	28.6	Accumulate
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.77	29.5	Buy
09/26/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.38	29.13	Buy

Stock calls for 27 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/27/19	CIMB	DBS	24.82	27.59	Hold
09/27/19	Lim & Tan	Mapletree Commercial	2.36	0	Hold
09/27/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.82	12.53	Hold
09/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.13	3.32	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $3
09/27/19	CIMB	Venture	15.26	16.28	Add

China's beidou has 48 satellites now!

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/23/c_138414889.htm

China's beidou navigation system has 48 satellites now.

This BDS provides almost free SMS for its marine users because China doesn't want its marine users to use its BDS for chatting.  BDS will provide voice call and internet services in the future too.

Kudos to China for providing such services!

Unusual - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/17/19	DMG & Partners	Unusual	0.28	0.42	Buy	DCF

Uni-Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/14/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.2	2.07	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19
04/09/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.16	1.86	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19
05/17/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.13	1.86	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19
08/28/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.73	1.24	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20
09/26/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.71	1.24	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20

UMS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.71	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
02/28/19	CIMB	UMS	0.74	0.62	Reduce	PB1.37x CY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.615	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.64	0.45	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19/20
05/21/19	CIMB	UMS	0.62	0.55	Reduce
08/16/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.585	0.49	Fully Valued	PER9x FY20

Stock calls for 26 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/26/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.73	28.05	Hold
09/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.38	0.37	Hold	Buy @ $0.33
09/26/19	CIMB	Mapletree Industrial	2.49	2.44	Add	DDM
09/26/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.77	11.05	Neutral
09/26/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.77	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/26/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.71	1.24	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY20, PER8.5x FY20
09/26/19	Kim Eng	UOB	25.38	29.13	Buy

Simple explanation of the relationship between an interest rate and GDP.

I understand that many people don't understand the relationship between an interest rate and GDP.  Therefore, I will try to explain it in a simple way with my recalled economic knowledge.

I will use the IS-LM (investment-saving & liquidity preference money supply) model to explain this relationship between the interest rate and GDP.  However, this IS-LM model is conceived in a perfect world environment which means that the aggregate demand and supply are a zero-sum game (equal balance) and this perfect world is not true in the real world.

The X-axis represents the interest rate and the Y-axis represents the real GDP output.

The IS-LM diagram is showing that a cut in interest rate will increase the real GDP output (Y) before the interest rate must be raised to prevent an overheating GDP (Y) which will cause the GDP (Y) to decline again.  Basically, the black dot on the IS-LM diagram will move in a cycle accordingly to the interest rate movements.

Since we have a visual understanding of the relationship between the interest rate and the real GDP output, we can move on to understand the real GDP output growth.  There is only real GDP output growth when there is additional production of goods and services.

Thus, the real GDP output growth formula (production function) is:
Y = A * f(K, L)

A=Productivity
K=Capital
L=Labour quantity

As we can see from the production function, K is affected by the interest rate movement because a cut in interest rate will lower the cost of capital which will encourage business investments in machinery and equipment to improve productivity (A).  The lower cost of capital will also encourage the hiring of labour to operate and maintain the additional equipment and new machinery.  In other words, K will affect A and L which in turn will push up Y.  This manipulation of K also applies to the service sector.

I hope our viewers will have a better understanding of the monetary policy (Interest rate) now after reading my post.

How many deaths must happen before the government takes action against cyclists? - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/65-yearold-woman-involved-in-escooter-accident-in-bedok-north-dies-151436494.html

Another avoidable death!

The death toll will only increase as long as our government doesn't ban e-scooters on pedestrian paths.  This won't be the last death in SG.

We've stated this before.  I hope that our government will ban e-scooter like what France did to safeguard pedestrians.  Registration of e-scooter won't protect pedestrians from accidental death.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/how-many-deaths-must-happen-before.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/httpwww.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/france-has-done-right-thing-for-its.html

Why did China cancel the US farm visits? - Part 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/trump-surprised-when-mnuchin-says-he-asked-china-to-cancel-farm-tour.html

If you look at the video carefully, you will notice that Trump is totally unaware of Mnuchin's doing.  It was Mnuchin who asked China to cancel the US farm visits but the media reported widely that China was the one cancelling the US farm visits.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/why-did-china-cancel-us-farm-visits.html

It was pretty obvious that Mnuchin was trying to do some hanky panky things behind Trump's back and he was stuttering when Trump questioned him.

A billion dollar question: Will the US enter a recession? - Part 2

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1758639/fresh-qe-wont-stop-global-recession

A Thai PHD economist forecast that an unavoidable global recession was coming but a US PHD economist (Janet Yellen) didn't think so.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-billion-dollar-question-will-us-enter.html

Why is there such a discrepancy?

Well, different people interpret the same set of data differently and this is the drawback of empirical research which is interpretation based on observation.  Thus, we can find economics noble laureates disagree amongst themselves too.  In fact, scientific researches are empirical in nature too.

We had stated previously that QE or ME should be used as a last resort because it was a double-edge sword.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/monetary-easing-ma-policy-should-be.html

My observations of the HK protests. - Part 3

These HK rioters are getting more violent and aggressive now because their numbers have declined significantly.  Thus, they made up their reduction in size with more violent acts.  They tried to snatch the police officer's gun and throw molotov cocktails (petrol bombs) directly at the police.

We had stated these intensified acts of violence in our previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/my-observations-of-hk-protests.html