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Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Will USA attack North Korea unilaterally?

Well, this is a billion dollar question but we'll try to seek the answer with our best effort.

The USA will only attack North Korea if it is confident that it can destroy NK's nuclear sites and ballistic missiles in the first air strike.  However, we do not foresee such confidence from the USA because the USA can only destroy about 85% of NK's capabilities leaving 15% for retaliation against South Korea and Japan.  Our online research shows that the USA can only gather about 85% of intelligence about NK insofar.  There are many unknown underground tunnels in NK that can accommodate mobile missile launchers.  Therefore, the USA will not act unilaterally because Seoul and Tokyo will be annihilated from NK's retaliations.

The USA has been making public proclamation that it doesn't seek to dethrone Kim but Kim will not trust the USA due to the USA having a bad credibility record.  I would say that the USA and NK are at an impasse now because both countries are suspicious of each other.

Furthermore, China and Russia won't allow a Korean peninsula war right at their doorsteps.

1 comment:

Eric Ho said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/most-south-koreans-dont-expect-war-with-north-poll-shows-as-trump-highlights-military-option-idUSKCN1BJ0LG

Look like South Koreans share our sentiment.

We'll know an imminent war is coming when the Japanese are fleeing SK.