http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/nomura-sounds-bearish-call-on-spore-economy-cuts-2017-gdp-growth-forecast
Nomura predicted that SG's economy will grow by 0.7% in 2017 which is far below the 1-3% predicted by our government.
However, Deutsche predicts that SG will grow by 2.3% in 2017.
http://business.asiaone.com/news/singapore-economy-could-expand-23-2017-deutsche-bank
Who is correct?
I think Deutsche is too optimistic on SG without an in-depth understanding of the surrounding economic situations. Pakistan port has started operations and will reduce port cargoes to SG which has never existed before. Furthermore, interest rates will be higher in 2017 and this will increase business costs. Last but not least, asian currencies depreciation will create inflations in Asia.
I just can't see how SG will perform so well in 2017 with 2.3% growth when there's so many negative factors.
Friday, December 9, 2016
China foreign reserves have dropped to USD3.05T!
http://www.businessinsider.sg/chinese-foreign-reserves-slide-as-yuan-falls-2016-12/?r=US&IR=T
When China foreign reserves are falling, RMB will fall too. Nothing surprising. Just read our previous posting and you will understand the rationale.
When China foreign reserves are falling, RMB will fall too. Nothing surprising. Just read our previous posting and you will understand the rationale.
DBS is selling customer data in Hong Kong!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/hkma-expresses-concern-after-report-of-dbs-arrests-in-hong-kong?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo
OMG! After our tanks seizure, DBS HK has contravened HK's laws!
OMG! After our tanks seizure, DBS HK has contravened HK's laws!
Do you know how to count triangles?
Only those with IQ more than 120 can find 18 triangles.
Thursday, December 8, 2016
EU has started to cut back on its QE!
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/ecb-unexpectedly-cuts-asset-buys-to-60b-euros-per-month-from-april
How will this affect economies?
Well, there will be lesser cheap monies in the market now and interest rates will slowly inch up in EU. Nonetheless, QE has proven to be not working in the real economies except for stock markets. Therefore, the impact of lesser QE will only affect the stock markets more than the main streets.
How will this affect economies?
Well, there will be lesser cheap monies in the market now and interest rates will slowly inch up in EU. Nonetheless, QE has proven to be not working in the real economies except for stock markets. Therefore, the impact of lesser QE will only affect the stock markets more than the main streets.
New documentary - The coming war on China
https://newint.org/features/2016/12/01/the-coming-war-on-china/
This documentary shows that USA is the aggressor because it wants to retain its hegemony in the world.
Just look at the more than 400 military bases encircling China. How can China sit back and do nothing? China has the prerogative to protect itself and its citizens against USA.
This documentary shows that USA is the aggressor because it wants to retain its hegemony in the world.
Just look at the more than 400 military bases encircling China. How can China sit back and do nothing? China has the prerogative to protect itself and its citizens against USA.
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Iphones are starting to explode now! Becareful!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4005082/Are-iPhones-exploding-Apple-users-China-complain-handsets-caught-fire.html
It looks like companies don't care about quality anymore!
It looks like companies don't care about quality anymore!
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Monday, December 5, 2016
Singapore has bowed to China finally!
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/china-s-rise-cannot-be-contained-singapore-defence-minister/3340990.html
Will this appease China? I think this is just a strategic tactic to redeem our seized tanks in Hong Kong. China government has changed its mentality towards Singapore and only will believe in what we do rather than what we say. Singapore had been saying that we wanted to be a neutral party and not side with any party but Singapore sided with USA over South China Sea under a spurious court ruling. Singapore asked China to respect the PCA ruling but didn't request Taiwan to accept the ruling against its Taiping island (no longer an island under PCA ruling). Singapore also didn't ask Australia to respect the PCA ruling in which East Timor won against Australia recently.
All these have made China look at Singapore as a less credible and prejudice country because Singapore voiced out its opinions selectively. No matter what, this will be a good start and we have to slowly gain the trust of China all over again.
Will this appease China? I think this is just a strategic tactic to redeem our seized tanks in Hong Kong. China government has changed its mentality towards Singapore and only will believe in what we do rather than what we say. Singapore had been saying that we wanted to be a neutral party and not side with any party but Singapore sided with USA over South China Sea under a spurious court ruling. Singapore asked China to respect the PCA ruling but didn't request Taiwan to accept the ruling against its Taiping island (no longer an island under PCA ruling). Singapore also didn't ask Australia to respect the PCA ruling in which East Timor won against Australia recently.
All these have made China look at Singapore as a less credible and prejudice country because Singapore voiced out its opinions selectively. No matter what, this will be a good start and we have to slowly gain the trust of China all over again.
Sunday, December 4, 2016
Giant's causeway in northern Ireland which has a door closing mountain.
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Baltic dry index - 1198
Today, Friday, December 02 2016, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 2 points, reaching 1198 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 597
HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by four this week to 597.
A year ago, 737 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 477 rigs sought oil and 119 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas gained seven rigs, Wyoming increased by four and Oklahoma gained two.
Louisiana declined by four, Colorado and North Dakota each fell by two and Utah lost one.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides!
With the USD appreciation and upcoming interest rate rises, yen has been on a devaluation trajectory which will boost its exports. Therefore, Japan stock market will benefit from this export oomph.
Let's use binomial probability to calculate the likelihood of achieving the 19,000 level.
Current index futures= 18,320
Expected index futures = 19,000
Time from 2 Dec 2016 to 10 Mar 2017 (expiry date) = 98 Days
Upside deviation for the last 12 months = 7.16%
Downside deviation for the last 12 months = -7.92%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 1 Dec 2016
After inputing the above parameters, the possibilities for upside is 56.9% and downside is 43.1%.
Therefore, it is likely for nikkei to rise 680 points by 10 March 2017 than to fall 680 points.
Let's use binomial probability to calculate the likelihood of achieving the 19,000 level.
Current index futures= 18,320
Expected index futures = 19,000
Time from 2 Dec 2016 to 10 Mar 2017 (expiry date) = 98 Days
Upside deviation for the last 12 months = 7.16%
Downside deviation for the last 12 months = -7.92%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 1 Dec 2016
After inputing the above parameters, the possibilities for upside is 56.9% and downside is 43.1%.
Therefore, it is likely for nikkei to rise 680 points by 10 March 2017 than to fall 680 points.
Friday, December 2, 2016
Trump is changing USA "Asia pivot" strategy!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/01/james-mattis-secretary-of-defense-donald-trump
Trump has appointed a Middle East veteran as the new defense secretary which shows that Trump will be focusing on exterminating ISIS during his office term instead of fighting with China over South China Sea. The US pacific commander Harris will be shoved out of the door in Jan 2017 and tension in South China Sea will be greatly reduced.
This momentarily peace will be great news for Asean and China because Asean can focus on economic interests while China will have time to build up its air and naval forces with the deployments of 4th generation fighter planes J20 and local built aircraft carriers.
Trump has appointed a Middle East veteran as the new defense secretary which shows that Trump will be focusing on exterminating ISIS during his office term instead of fighting with China over South China Sea. The US pacific commander Harris will be shoved out of the door in Jan 2017 and tension in South China Sea will be greatly reduced.
This momentarily peace will be great news for Asean and China because Asean can focus on economic interests while China will have time to build up its air and naval forces with the deployments of 4th generation fighter planes J20 and local built aircraft carriers.
Singapore and Japan are still harping on TPP!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/singapore-and-japan-urge-ratification-tpp
If USA endorses TPP, it will be a tight slap to Trump as he has said that he'll terminate it once he takes office. Trump said that SG stole USA jobs and we're going to antagonize Trump further by harping on TPP. Trump had already given Japan a tight slap right in the face.....Trump has no qualms to do it to SG especially we are only a small red dot.
If USA endorses TPP, it will be a tight slap to Trump as he has said that he'll terminate it once he takes office. Trump said that SG stole USA jobs and we're going to antagonize Trump further by harping on TPP. Trump had already given Japan a tight slap right in the face.....Trump has no qualms to do it to SG especially we are only a small red dot.
UFO technology is simply amazing!
UFO can hover and disappear in a flash.
The same UFO technology was also captured on cam in China nanjing below.
The same UFO technology was also captured on cam in China nanjing below.
China is developing its own hyperloop train now!
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1129/c90000-9148515.html
Wow! When we detect more UFO sightings in China, we will see more technological advancements in China.
Wow! When we detect more UFO sightings in China, we will see more technological advancements in China.
RMB is having a shortage issue now!
RMB has stopped depreciating because of supply issue. China is issuing more funds into the monetary market to address the supply issue.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1201/c90000-9149650.html?winzoom=1
Don't be mistaken that this is China trying to devalue RMB further after depreciating to around 6.95 yuan vs USD. If China doesn't inject funds now, RMB will skyrocket very fast and furious and will disrupt the monetary system and interest rates.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1201/c90000-9149650.html?winzoom=1
Don't be mistaken that this is China trying to devalue RMB further after depreciating to around 6.95 yuan vs USD. If China doesn't inject funds now, RMB will skyrocket very fast and furious and will disrupt the monetary system and interest rates.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Political language in Singapore!
Our government always insists that it is transparent and often uses the "A spade is a spade" terminology. Is our government walking the talk? Let's see a few examples below.
Flooding ------> Ponding
Bad sexual behaviour ------> Personal indiscretion
Not dangerous ------> Not safety critical
Seized in HK ------> Delayed in HK (our tanks were seized)
Please feel free to add on to the SG political language list so that we can all learn from this list.
Flooding ------> Ponding
Bad sexual behaviour ------> Personal indiscretion
Not dangerous ------> Not safety critical
Seized in HK ------> Delayed in HK (our tanks were seized)
Please feel free to add on to the SG political language list so that we can all learn from this list.
Red alert for Hong Kong air traffic control!
Hong Kong airport has just upgraded its air traffic control system which contains some dangerous bugs that can endanger the lives of passengers. The air control system can give off false signals to traffic controller and result in fatal mistakes. Beware!
The true agenda behind the seizure of SG tanks in Hong Kong.
The seizure of SG 9 tanks in HK is not entirely targeted at SG but Taiwan. Taiwan has been extremely anti-China after Tsai took office. China wants to isolate Taiwan by cutting off Taiwan military ties with other countries. Therefore, China is pressuring SG with diplomatic discussion over the handover of SG tanks in exchange for Taiwan isolation.
After the seizure, China air force flew around Taiwan to serve as a warning. http://www.bestchinanews.com/Military/4288.html
SG has been too complacent and insensitive towards China. After making anti-China remarks over South China Sea Issues, SG should be careful about provoking China further. When we have a good relationship with China, China can overlook a lot of things. However, when the relationship is rocky, China will scrutinise a lot of things too. There won’t be any preferential treatment from China when we don’t want China to look at SG as a Chinese nation. There is no such thing as having the best of both worlds as we live in a harsh reality. Let this be a small lesson learnt and hopefully our government will be more politically sensitive towards China.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
"Singapore image in China is so rotten!" - China perspective
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-paper-says-singapore-troop-carriers-melted-down-033016097.html
The truth is finally out. We've stated numerous times in our previous postings that anti-Singapore sentiment had taken root in China. Like we said, China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do now.
The truth is finally out. We've stated numerous times in our previous postings that anti-Singapore sentiment had taken root in China. Like we said, China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do now.
President Park has finally given up on holding her office!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/korea-president-says-willing-leave-office-early-060438322.html
As predicted in our previous post, she would step down due to her scandal.
As predicted in our previous post, she would step down due to her scandal.
One of my favourite chinese dramas - Heaven's way! 天道！
This China drama is based on European essay called the last messiah.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Messiah
https://philosophynow.org/issues/45/The_Last_Messiah
Please watch the 24 episodes if you have the time. It is a philosophical drama which depicts human conscience, conscious and behaviour. Reading the synopsis on The Last Messiah will help you to understand the drama better.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Messiah
https://philosophynow.org/issues/45/The_Last_Messiah
Trump is right to insist on bilateral trade talks than multi-lateral TPP. Why?
TPP primary motive was to pursue USA political interest against China and to deter China economic growth. Without TPP, It will be tough to negotiate with USA during bilateral trade talk because USA is the largest economy in the world. Japan, the 3rd largest economy, will also face tremendous difficulty against USA. As TPP was a trade weapon to be used against China, USA gave a lot of concessions to Japan as a tradeoff for being anti-China. Japan has to open up its farm and agricultural industry for bilateral FTA which is detrimental to Japan PM’s party as his supporters are mostly farmers. Donald Trump will be focusing on USA economic benefits during bilateral trade talks. Therefore, it’s tough to negotiate with USA based on economic interests.
Monday, November 28, 2016
President park approval rating dropped to 4%
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/South-Korean-President-Park-s-approval-rating-dips-further-to-4
We stated in our previous post that she's likely to step down as President due to her scandal and it looked like this outcome would materialize soon as her approval rating had dropped to 4%.
Her scandal also revealed that her closest friend was behind the THAAD system installation deal in which she received a huge commission from Lockheed Martin for the transaction. This showed that THAAD system installation was not to defend South Korea but for corruption. President Park disregarded South Korea interests for her friend's interest. Therefore, she should step down.
We stated in our previous post that she's likely to step down as President due to her scandal and it looked like this outcome would materialize soon as her approval rating had dropped to 4%.
Her scandal also revealed that her closest friend was behind the THAAD system installation deal in which she received a huge commission from Lockheed Martin for the transaction. This showed that THAAD system installation was not to defend South Korea but for corruption. President Park disregarded South Korea interests for her friend's interest. Therefore, she should step down.
How China views Singapore nowadays?
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1128/c90000-9147777.html
Anti-Singapore sentiment has taken root in China and we've already stated this in our previous post. If we don't want China to view SG as a Chinese nation, we also cannot demand any preferential treatment from China. This is how reality works!
China no longer trusts SG now. China is taking the stance that it will believe in what it sees but not what it hears. SG can explain and clarify but if we don't synchronize our verbal and non-verbal communications, China will not trust us. In other words, we cannot say one thing but do another thing.
Anti-Singapore sentiment has taken root in China and we've already stated this in our previous post. If we don't want China to view SG as a Chinese nation, we also cannot demand any preferential treatment from China. This is how reality works!
China no longer trusts SG now. China is taking the stance that it will believe in what it sees but not what it hears. SG can explain and clarify but if we don't synchronize our verbal and non-verbal communications, China will not trust us. In other words, we cannot say one thing but do another thing.
Japan has suffered a bad karma for being USA staunch ally.
Japan has shot itself in its own foot by being USA staunch ally.
Firstly, Trump had slapped Japan PM right in the face by announcing the termination of TPP after he's in office even after Japan PM visited Trump.
Secondly, Russia will be deploying new missiles near Japan and there is nothing Japan can do about it. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/japan-protests-russia-missile-deployment-on-disputed-islands-4394955/
Thirdly, Vietnam is trying to appease China by terminating a Japanese nuclear project. http://www.bestchinanews.com/International/3183.html
Will Malaysia award the HSR project to Japan or China? Let's see.
Will SG face the same predicament too? Let's see.
Every country is trying to get distance itself from USA and get cozy with China. Just look at latin America countries! See what Peru and Chile are doing with China!
How did analysts and news media get the stock market so wrong with Trump's win?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-could-crash-if-donald-trump-is-elected-2016-10-31
http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/donald-trump-stocks-crash
Many analysts and news media predicted stock market crashes when Trump was elected president. However, there was only a knee jerk reaction and the stock markets became euphoria with Trump being the president.
How did they get it so WRONG?
Well, either they were so biased and wanted to spread fears or they analysed the situation from only 1 single angle (uncertainty with Trump). Nonetheless, they were dead wrong about the outcome.
Let's analyse the economic situation from a more objective perspective so that we can all understand the bullishness of the stock markets.
GDP = G + I + C + Nx (X-M)
Trump is a protectionist and will spend on local infrastructures (G). This will improve employments and increase GDP since G is part of it. The anticipated interest rate increase has caused funds (I) to flow back to USA which can be seen from USD appreciation. Therefore, investments (I) have increased which will boost GDP since I is part of it. Consumer consumption takes up more than 2/3 of USA GDP and consumerism will increase with better employment. Although TPP will be terminated when Trump takes office, he is proposing bilateral trade agreements (Nx) with other countries instead of multi-lateral. This will put USA in good stead as bilateral talks will give USA supreme bargaining power against other countries since it is the world's largest economy. The new bilateral FTAs will have more economic benefits than TPP for USA and boost net exports (Nx).
Thus, stock markets have been trending upwards after Trump's win. Japan stock market also benefitted a lot after Trump's win because of USD appreciation. USD appreciation causes yen devaluation which will boost Japan's exports.
http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/donald-trump-stocks-crash
Many analysts and news media predicted stock market crashes when Trump was elected president. However, there was only a knee jerk reaction and the stock markets became euphoria with Trump being the president.
How did they get it so WRONG?
Well, either they were so biased and wanted to spread fears or they analysed the situation from only 1 single angle (uncertainty with Trump). Nonetheless, they were dead wrong about the outcome.
Let's analyse the economic situation from a more objective perspective so that we can all understand the bullishness of the stock markets.
GDP = G + I + C + Nx (X-M)
Trump is a protectionist and will spend on local infrastructures (G). This will improve employments and increase GDP since G is part of it. The anticipated interest rate increase has caused funds (I) to flow back to USA which can be seen from USD appreciation. Therefore, investments (I) have increased which will boost GDP since I is part of it. Consumer consumption takes up more than 2/3 of USA GDP and consumerism will increase with better employment. Although TPP will be terminated when Trump takes office, he is proposing bilateral trade agreements (Nx) with other countries instead of multi-lateral. This will put USA in good stead as bilateral talks will give USA supreme bargaining power against other countries since it is the world's largest economy. The new bilateral FTAs will have more economic benefits than TPP for USA and boost net exports (Nx).
Thus, stock markets have been trending upwards after Trump's win. Japan stock market also benefitted a lot after Trump's win because of USD appreciation. USD appreciation causes yen devaluation which will boost Japan's exports.
Saturday, November 26, 2016
Why is gold losing its lustre?
Gold prices are falling for 2 fundamental reasons. First is the appreciation of USD. As USD rises, it gets more expensive to buy gold because gold is priced in USD in international market. Investors will get lesser gold for the same amount of USD. The 2nd reason is the rise in interest rate. As gold is a zero interest yielding asset, it will lose its favour once other assets have higher yielding powers. Gold is favoured in negative interest and low USD environment compared to other assets.
Why are asian currencies depreciating?
For RMB devaluation, please read our previous post, http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html for more information.
Asian currencies are depreciating because of USD rises. USD is rising because of the expected interest rate increases in December 2016 and also in 2017.
Funds are leaving Asia and flowing to USA because of higher investment yields due to higher interest rates. Therefore, countries with lower foreign reserves will suffer more depreciations. This can be seen from SGD vs MYR. Due to the anticipated interest rate movements, fund managers will be dabbling in interest related derivatives whereby USA has the most liquid market because of arbitrage opportunities. This explains why funds are pulling out of Asia and moving to USA.
Business and investment costs will go up soon in Asia and these will create inflations. Subsequently, the vicious interest rates cycle will begin to form in the world until recession takes place.
Asian currencies are depreciating because of USD rises. USD is rising because of the expected interest rate increases in December 2016 and also in 2017.
Funds are leaving Asia and flowing to USA because of higher investment yields due to higher interest rates. Therefore, countries with lower foreign reserves will suffer more depreciations. This can be seen from SGD vs MYR. Due to the anticipated interest rate movements, fund managers will be dabbling in interest related derivatives whereby USA has the most liquid market because of arbitrage opportunities. This explains why funds are pulling out of Asia and moving to USA.
Business and investment costs will go up soon in Asia and these will create inflations. Subsequently, the vicious interest rates cycle will begin to form in the world until recession takes place.
Baltic dry index - 1181
Today, Friday, November 25 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 20 points, reaching 1181 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 593
HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by five this week to 593.
A year ago, 744 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said 474 rigs sought oil and 118 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Pennsylvania gained four rigs, Texas three and Colorado two.
Wyoming declined by three, New Mexico two and North Dakota one.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
The weekly tally, normally released Friday, was released Wednesday because of Thanksgiving.
Friday, November 25, 2016
Latest update on 9 SG armoured tanks seized in HK port.
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/9-armoured-vehicles-bound-spore-seized-hk
This was the first time Taiwan was tasked to ship the tanks back to SG and Taiwan screwed it up. Previously, SG was responsible for all the shippings. Taiwan was not supposed to en route to HK for this shipping trip but it entered HK port anyway and offloaded SG tanks. SG tanks were secretly cordoned off in the port with surrounding containers to mask its presence but a whistle blower informed the port authority which resulted in the investigation and seizure. Under HK laws, no military equipment can enter HK without authorization and HK has the right to seize such illegal military equipment.
This was the first time Taiwan was tasked to ship the tanks back to SG and Taiwan screwed it up. Previously, SG was responsible for all the shippings. Taiwan was not supposed to en route to HK for this shipping trip but it entered HK port anyway and offloaded SG tanks. SG tanks were secretly cordoned off in the port with surrounding containers to mask its presence but a whistle blower informed the port authority which resulted in the investigation and seizure. Under HK laws, no military equipment can enter HK without authorization and HK has the right to seize such illegal military equipment.
China-Cambodia port is going to start operation soon!
This new deep sea port is capable for berthing China aircraft carrier and can be turned into a military seaport anytime. This port will be under China management for 99 years to safeguard its interest in south east asia.
http://english.cctv.com/2016/10/13/VIDEUV5FyRopLpEeJ2N0HFK8161013.shtml
Look like SG heyday is over!
Dubai new hyperloop train! Super cool and fast!
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Singapore downgrades its GDP growth in 2016.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-downgrades-2016-gdp-exports-003300147.html
Our government's estimate (-4.1%) was overly pessimistic on 14 October compared to the actual fall of -2%. Was this due to being too conservative or our government economist was too lousy? The estimation was too way off!
Our government's estimate (-4.1%) was overly pessimistic on 14 October compared to the actual fall of -2%. Was this due to being too conservative or our government economist was too lousy? The estimation was too way off!
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Singapore port volume is expected to decline again in 2016!
The TEU in 2015 was 30.92m. If we analyse the figures in 2016 as shown above, the expected TEU in 2016 will be around 30.5m. Therefore, the 9% drop in 2015 is not an aberration but is the harbinger of further fall in 2016. Look like China has succeeded in containing Singapore growth.
Singapore port handling capacity volume CAGR!
Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:
2011 = 29.94m
2012 = 31.65m
2013 = 32.6m
2014 = 33.87m
2015 = 30.9m
From 2011 (29.94m) to 2015 (30.9m), the CAGR is 0.79%.
29.94*(1+0.79%))^4 = 30.9
Once the CAGR becomes negative, Singapore will be in an extremely precarious position.
Is Singapore resilient enough for the upcoming economic downturn?
Singapore is a heavily entrepôt dependent country till now as it is a small country with no natural resources. Yes, Singapore had been through the vicissitudes of economic cycles and had been resilient throughout all the economic and financial crises. Singapore was able to weather all these harsh tribulations because its port had been increasing the port handling capacity volumes throughout the years. However, Singapore had lost its world’s busiest port to Shanghai and its port volumes fell in 2015 by 9%. I hope that this decline in port volumes in 2015 is just an aberration and not the harbinger of more declines in the future. If the port volumes begin to decline, Singapore will find it hard to recover from any economic crises in the future.
When the port volumes are having positive CAGR annually, it means that businesses are sustainable in the foreseeable future despite any negative economic growth and Singapore can recover from any recession or crisis. Conversely, when the port volumes are having negative CAGR annually, businesses become unsustainable because there will be declining demands for the ancillary services and products pertaining to the entrepôt trades. In a nutshell, when Singapore loses its sea hub, it will also lose its financial hub and Singapore will retrograde into a 2nd or 3rd world country.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
No more TPP! Japan and ASEAN can stop harping on it now!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/trump-says-he-will-move-withdraw-tpp-day-one
We need to move on to RCEP and FTAAP. Please stop harping on TPP anymore!
We need to move on to RCEP and FTAAP. Please stop harping on TPP anymore!
Monday, November 21, 2016
Why would fund manager buy bonds with negative yields?
Government bonds are often labelled as risk-free investments and are favourite financial instruments among fixed income fund managers.
Government bonds are IOUs issued by the government and the government pays interest rates on its IOUs just like bank loans. However, some government bonds are sauntering into negative yields these few months. What does this negative yield mean? It means consumers have to pay interest rates to the government for buying the bonds. In other words, you pay interest rates for lending money to someone instead of collecting interest rates for money lent out. Many people cannot reconcile this negative bond yield with the traditional bank loan concept that is imbued in them.
Thus, why would fund managers be interested in these negative bond yields? Surely, they have the financial literacy to know this is a money losing investment. Well, fund managers know something that ordinary people don't. Fund managers can perform the midas of turning negative yield into positive yield. How is this possible?
Let's suss out the MIDAS!
Fixed income fund managers will sift out arbitrage opportunities in other interest rates related financial derivatives as a trade off to the negative bond yields by doing interest rate swaps in different currencies.
Example of USD-Yen interest rates swap:
A USD fund manager will borrow yen and lend out USD using Libor rates.
Facts:
3-month USD Libor : 0.82%
3-month JPY Libor : -0.02%
USD-Yen interest rate swap spread: 0.64%
3-month JPY Bond yield: -0.24%
When a USD fund manager borrows yen, he will pay JPY Libor (-0.02%) and receive USD Libor (0.82%) for lending out USD with a spread of 0.64%. Since the JPY Libor is a negative rate, the USD fund manager will receive interest of 0.02% instead of paying 0.02% interest.
Therefore, the net effect in carrying out this USD-Yen interest rates swap is 0.82% - (-0.02%) + 0.64% = 1.48%
Then the fund manager will invest in JPY bonds with -0.24 yield with the borrowed yen which means the net effect is 1.48% - 0.24% = 1.24% because he has to pay an interest rate to the government instead. As you can see, the smart USD fund manager has managed to earn 1.24% instead of 0.82% when he invests only in USD Libor.
Since China has the largest USD foreign reserves, it has performed the USD-Yen interest rate swap and bought a lot of negative JPY bond yields these few months.
Government bonds are IOUs issued by the government and the government pays interest rates on its IOUs just like bank loans. However, some government bonds are sauntering into negative yields these few months. What does this negative yield mean? It means consumers have to pay interest rates to the government for buying the bonds. In other words, you pay interest rates for lending money to someone instead of collecting interest rates for money lent out. Many people cannot reconcile this negative bond yield with the traditional bank loan concept that is imbued in them.
Thus, why would fund managers be interested in these negative bond yields? Surely, they have the financial literacy to know this is a money losing investment. Well, fund managers know something that ordinary people don't. Fund managers can perform the midas of turning negative yield into positive yield. How is this possible?
Let's suss out the MIDAS!
Fixed income fund managers will sift out arbitrage opportunities in other interest rates related financial derivatives as a trade off to the negative bond yields by doing interest rate swaps in different currencies.
Example of USD-Yen interest rates swap:
A USD fund manager will borrow yen and lend out USD using Libor rates.
Facts:
3-month USD Libor : 0.82%
3-month JPY Libor : -0.02%
USD-Yen interest rate swap spread: 0.64%
3-month JPY Bond yield: -0.24%
When a USD fund manager borrows yen, he will pay JPY Libor (-0.02%) and receive USD Libor (0.82%) for lending out USD with a spread of 0.64%. Since the JPY Libor is a negative rate, the USD fund manager will receive interest of 0.02% instead of paying 0.02% interest.
Therefore, the net effect in carrying out this USD-Yen interest rates swap is 0.82% - (-0.02%) + 0.64% = 1.48%
Then the fund manager will invest in JPY bonds with -0.24 yield with the borrowed yen which means the net effect is 1.48% - 0.24% = 1.24% because he has to pay an interest rate to the government instead. As you can see, the smart USD fund manager has managed to earn 1.24% instead of 0.82% when he invests only in USD Libor.
Since China has the largest USD foreign reserves, it has performed the USD-Yen interest rate swap and bought a lot of negative JPY bond yields these few months.
NATO unity is breaking up!
Turkey which is part of NATO is very unhappy about EU and is mooting the idea to create and join a China security bloc. This will definitely create tensions in EU and NATO as Turkey gets closer to Russia and China. Turkey maybe just issuing empty threat to gain more bargaining chips for its political interest.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Philippines economy is getting better when it gets cozy with China.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1117/c90000-9143257.html
China is helping Philippines in infrastructures development and will be increasing FDI in the country too. Furthermore, China will include Philippines in the new sea lane which will be part of the one-belt-one-road plan.
China is helping Philippines in infrastructures development and will be increasing FDI in the country too. Furthermore, China will include Philippines in the new sea lane which will be part of the one-belt-one-road plan.
High interest rate environment is coming!
The spark of this vicious interest rate cycle is caused by the bond market selloff. Bond price and yield are inversely related to each other because bond pricing formula is based on time value of money concept.
As bond prices decrease, bond yields will increase and vice versa. Bond yields have been low for quite some time and some bond yields are even in negative territory now. Consequently, investors are selling bonds to seek better returns or yields and this bond selloff causes yields to fall. As China is USA largest creditor, China foreign reserves are shrinking because the total value of its USA bonds is declining. Since foreign reserves make up the backbone of the Renminbi (RMB) strength, RMB devaluation is inevitable as investors will sell RMB because its backbone is weakening. Thus, RMB has been declining to recent lows.
China is the de facto manufacturing factory of the world and the devaluation of RMB will cause inflation to escalate as China has to buy raw materials with higher prices for production. In other words, China is going to export inflation to the world. As inflation reaches the economic threshold levels of many countries, they will start to raise interest rates to contain inflation. The rises in interest rates will cause bond yields to spike up and depress the bond prices further.
Upon sensing this, China will continue to sell USA bonds to cut its foreign reserve losses with the ensuing outcome of shrinking foreign reserves and more RMB devaluations . This is the vicious interest rate cycle I am talking about. Therefore, the foreboding of higher interest rates is real and will be coming soon.
Baltic dry index - 1257
Today, Friday, November 18 2016, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 26 points, reaching 1257 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 588
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 20 this week to 588.
A year ago, 757 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed oil and gas exploration, although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 471 rigs sought oil and 116 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas gained eight rigs and Louisiana and Oklahoma each gained four.
Ohio gained three, Colorado gained two, while Alabama and Utah each gained one. North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wyoming each lost one rig. The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Friday, November 18, 2016
It is unlikely that Japan will win the Malaysia HSR contract.
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/abe-makes-strong-pitch-for-spore-kl-high-speed-rail?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&xtor=CS1-10#link_time=1479343208
China has proven its HSR technology to the world in its own country which is super stable and fast. Please look at our previous posts on China HSR.
China also won the HSR contract in Indonesia based on its own merits. Furthermore, Malaysia is getting cozy with China and will give China the preferential treatment in this bidding. Let's wait and see.
China has proven its HSR technology to the world in its own country which is super stable and fast. Please look at our previous posts on China HSR.
China also won the HSR contract in Indonesia based on its own merits. Furthermore, Malaysia is getting cozy with China and will give China the preferential treatment in this bidding. Let's wait and see.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
UFO sighting in Indonesia!
Singapore export slumps again!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-exports-slump-trump-raise-042929452.html
Sigh! Malaysia economy is growing but Singapore economy is shrinking. Malaysia 2nd Quarter GDP growth was 4.1% in 2016 and looked set to grow at 4.2% for 2016.
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1969791
Is Malaysia stunning growth peculiar to international growth or Singapore declining growth abnormal?
Sigh! Malaysia economy is growing but Singapore economy is shrinking. Malaysia 2nd Quarter GDP growth was 4.1% in 2016 and looked set to grow at 4.2% for 2016.
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1969791
Is Malaysia stunning growth peculiar to international growth or Singapore declining growth abnormal?
NKF CEO was sacked for personal indiscretion with another guy. Hahaha!
Anyone with a decent IQ will know what personal indiscretion with another guy means. What a way to describe such incident! This is just like what our government is doing....Flooding becomes ponding in SG.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
OMG! Taiwan is going to lift food import ban for radiation food from Japan.
I will think twice about touring Taiwan now because it's impossible to avoid eating radiation food from Japan in Taiwan as we cannot be certain that the food stalls and restaurants are not using Japan produce and seafood.
There was a japanese tv host who refused to believe that radiation food was harmful to human. Therefore, he tried to convince audiences by eating radiation food on TV. He had cancer after eating radiation food.
http://enenews.com/japan-tv-host-diagnosed-acute-lymphocytic-leukemia-eating-fukushima-produce-show
Do you want to end up like him? Be safe, not ignorant!
There was a japanese tv host who refused to believe that radiation food was harmful to human. Therefore, he tried to convince audiences by eating radiation food on TV. He had cancer after eating radiation food.
http://enenews.com/japan-tv-host-diagnosed-acute-lymphocytic-leukemia-eating-fukushima-produce-show
Do you want to end up like him? Be safe, not ignorant!
China has achieved another technological breakthrough!
China has achieved another technological breakthrough on its own with the development of a high field magnet.
Pakistan has formed strategic alliance with China.
Pakistan has bought 8 submarines from China which will mean China will help to train Pakistan navy.
China gave Singapore a stern warning again!
My fear for Singapore has materialized. Anti-Singapore sentiment has taken root in China and we can see this from the completion of Gwadar Port (Pakistan). China has warned Singapore again after the opening of Gwadar port. The first warning was to demand Singapore to stay out of South China Sea issue. The latest warning is “Don’t think that ancient China had only 1 route!” which implies that China has created another route to ship oil and goods that will bypass Singapore port.
The oil shipment from Middle East and Africa to China will reduce time by 85% with this new route as China can ship the oil from Gwadar port to Xinjiang and vice versa. This new route essentially bypasses the strait of Malacca and Singapore port totally. Therefore, Singapore port handling capacity will begin to reduce further after the operation of Gwadar port. This is the price to pay when we stand together with USA to contain China and China is containing Singapore’s growth through this vindictive move. This is not the end but the beginning of a sinister plan to destroy Singapore because China does not regard Singapore as a friendly Chinese nation anymore. We must give kudos to our ruling party for putting Singaporeans in this precarious predicament. Do not expect USA to come to help Singapore as history has shown that USA will forsake its allies for its own interest.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Fake milo production by China men!
Monday, November 14, 2016
Is Japan food safe for consumption?
What do you get for being a staunch USA supporter? Just look at Taiwan!
Taiwan has been a staunch USA supporter but this only brings harm to its citizens.
USA is demanding Taiwan to import its ractopamine beef and pork.
http://www.porknetwork.com/news/protests-erupt-taiwan-reconsiders-ractopamine-ban
Ractopamine is banned in 160 countries because it is harmful to human.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2013/12/24/ractopamine-beta-agonist-drug.aspx
Now, Japan is demanding Taiwan to import its radiation affected food.
https://nuclear-news.net/2016/11/13/taiwan-protests-at-public-hearings-about-japanese-food-citizen-group-radiation-measuring/
USA and Japan are shoving harmful chemicals into Taiwanese throats without any regard for their safety. This is what happens if you become a supporter of USA. USA will only use you as a pawn and disregard your interest even if you are part of its allies. Japan will also bully you as USA condones it.
USA is demanding Taiwan to import its ractopamine beef and pork.
http://www.porknetwork.com/news/protests-erupt-taiwan-reconsiders-ractopamine-ban
Ractopamine is banned in 160 countries because it is harmful to human.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2013/12/24/ractopamine-beta-agonist-drug.aspx
Now, Japan is demanding Taiwan to import its radiation affected food.
https://nuclear-news.net/2016/11/13/taiwan-protests-at-public-hearings-about-japanese-food-citizen-group-radiation-measuring/
USA and Japan are shoving harmful chemicals into Taiwanese throats without any regard for their safety. This is what happens if you become a supporter of USA. USA will only use you as a pawn and disregard your interest even if you are part of its allies. Japan will also bully you as USA condones it.
President park approval rating has dropped to 5%.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/11/116_217549.html
Her time is ending soon! Opposition party cannot accept her request to remain as President without power.
Her time is ending soon! Opposition party cannot accept her request to remain as President without power.
Singapore port handling capacity will decline in the future.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-ship-opens-trade-route-via-pakistani-port-015155206--finance.html
China has started the operation at Pakistan port which Singapore neglected and lost to China. Singapore port looks set to decline in handling capacity in the future.
China has started the operation at Pakistan port which Singapore neglected and lost to China. Singapore port looks set to decline in handling capacity in the future.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Japan approved TPP but USA suspended TPP. What a joke!
https://www.rt.com/news/366367-japan-tpp-trump-china/
http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/obama-administration-backs-pacific-trade-deal-vote-effort
TPP was spearheaded by USA and USA was a major partner in TPP. Without USA, TPP is just a worthless piece of paper. However, Japan insisted in passing TPP without USA. This goes to show how helpless is Japan in managing its economy and going against China as TPP excludes China.
http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/obama-administration-backs-pacific-trade-deal-vote-effort
TPP was spearheaded by USA and USA was a major partner in TPP. Without USA, TPP is just a worthless piece of paper. However, Japan insisted in passing TPP without USA. This goes to show how helpless is Japan in managing its economy and going against China as TPP excludes China.
Baltic dry index - 539
Today, Friday, April 08 2016, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 22 points, reaching 539 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 568
HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. decreased by one this week to 568.
A year ago, 767 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have sharply curtailed oil and gas exploration.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 452 rigs sought oil and 115 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas gained six rigs and Ohio was up by one.
Alaska and North Dakota each declined by two. New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Utah each lost one.
Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Wyoming were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Friday, November 11, 2016
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